本文選題：汽車故障事故 + 風險評價�。� 參考：《東北林業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：由汽車故障導致的事故在道路交通事故總數(shù)中占有一定的比例,并且給人民生命和財產(chǎn)帶來的損失風險也是巨大的。因此,科學地分析汽車故障對事故的風險影響,展開以減少或降低汽車故障導致的事故率和事故后果嚴重程度的研究迫在眉睫。風險評價是降低事故率及事故危害性的有效方法。論文運用風險評價理論和方法,對由汽車故障導致的事故風險進行了綜合評價。 首先分析了與汽車行駛安全密切相關(guān)的汽車制動安全性、操縱穩(wěn)定性以及容易導致事故的主要系統(tǒng)總成,整理和總結(jié)了這些系統(tǒng)常見的故障類型以及容易造成的事故形態(tài)。 其次,由于我國缺少對汽車故障導致的事故統(tǒng)計,評價過程中難以獲取全部信息指標,并且指標的基礎(chǔ)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)不全面,此系統(tǒng)顯然是灰色的。因此選用灰聚類評價法對由汽車故障導致的事故進行風險評價,以2011年河北省所統(tǒng)計的汽車故障導致的事故為例,確定各故障因素所屬的風險灰類等級。然而汽車是一臺復雜的機械系統(tǒng),任何零部件出現(xiàn)故障都有可能導致事故的發(fā)生,需要對事故風險進行更全面的評價。通過前面分析結(jié)果可以發(fā)現(xiàn),容易導致事故的故障多發(fā)生于汽車的底盤結(jié)構(gòu),因此以汽車底盤結(jié)構(gòu)各系統(tǒng)故障因素為例,采用層次分析法劃分評價指標體系中不同指標的權(quán)重,建立評價結(jié)果集,運用德爾菲法搜集專家數(shù)據(jù),利用模糊綜合評價方法建立汽車底盤故障風險評價模型,確定了底盤故障風險等級。通過兩種評價方法得到的事故風險結(jié)果基本一致,證明兩種方法運用在汽車故障導致的事故風險評價中是可行的。 風險評價的最終目的是對汽車故障事故進行風險控制。通過分析得出,汽車故障事故風險控制理論是基于事故致因理論的,汽車故障是事故發(fā)生的直接原因,但在直接原因的背后往往隱藏著間接原因和基礎(chǔ)原因等更深層次的原因。針對更深層次的原因提出了相應(yīng)的汽車故障事故預防措施。
[Abstract]:Accidents caused by automobile failures occupy a certain proportion in the total number of road traffic accidents, and the risk of loss to people's lives and property is also huge. Therefore, it is scientific to analyze the impact of automobile failures on the risk of accidents, and to develop a study on reducing or reducing the accident rate and the severity of the accident consequences. The risk assessment is an effective method to reduce the accident rate and the harm of the accident. The paper uses the theory and method of risk assessment to make a comprehensive evaluation of the accident risk caused by automobile failure.
Firstly, the brake safety, control stability and the main system assembly which are easy to cause accidents are analyzed, which are closely related to the safety of vehicle driving, and the common fault types and easily caused accidents are summarized and summarized.
Secondly, because of the lack of statistics on accident caused by automobile failure in China, it is difficult to obtain all the information indexes in the evaluation process, and the basic statistical data of the index are not comprehensive. This system is obviously grey. Therefore, the grey clustering evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk of accidents caused by automobile failures, and the car statistics in 2011 in Hebei province. The accident caused by the fault is an example to determine the risk grey class of each fault factor. However, the automobile is a complex mechanical system. Any part of the fault may lead to the accident, and it is necessary to make a more comprehensive evaluation of the accident risk. Based on the chassis structure of automobile, taking the fault factors of each system of automobile chassis structure as an example, it uses analytic hierarchy process to divide the weight of different indexes in the evaluation index system and sets up the evaluation result set. Using Delphy Fa to collect expert data, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to build the vehicle chassis fault risk evaluation model and determine the bottom of the model. The risk grade of the disk failure is basically the same through the two evaluation methods. It is proved that the two methods are practicable in the accident risk assessment caused by automobile failures.
The ultimate goal of risk assessment is to control the risk of automobile accidents. Through the analysis, the theory of automobile accident risk control is based on the theory of accident cause, and the automobile failure is the direct cause of the accident, but the indirect cause and the underlying cause are often hidden behind the direct cause. A deeper reason is put forward for corresponding automobile accident prevention measures.
【學位授予單位】：東北林業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U472;U491.3

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前5條

1 楊耀武;;我國道路交通安全風險管理中的政府職責[J];哈爾濱學院學報;2009年10期

2 徐婷;劉敏;賀玉龍;;基于模糊層次分析的城市道路安全綜合評價模型[J];武漢理工大學學報(交通科學與工程版);2012年06期

3 劉學毅;;德爾菲法在交叉學科研究評價中的運用[J];西南交通大學學報(社會科學版);2007年02期

4 牛會永;基于灰色理論的城市道路交通安全評價研究[J];中國安全科學學報;2005年09期

5 張建航;程五一;楊延昭;彭建華;;事故隱患兩階段風險評價方法的研究[J];中國安全科學學報;2009年01期

相關(guān)博士學位論文 前1條

1 趙學剛;區(qū)域路網(wǎng)交通安全風險動態(tài)預警關(guān)鍵技術(shù)研究[D];長安大學;2010年

，

本文編號：1935764