發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-09 12:04

  本文選題：大型活動(dòng)　切入點(diǎn)：突發(fā)客流　出處：《蘭州交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速發(fā)展，人們對于物質(zhì)、文化的需求越來越高。近年來，全國許多大城市頻繁舉辦大型文體活動(dòng)，雖然大型文體活動(dòng)能夠滿足人們的物質(zhì)文化需要，促進(jìn)城市的發(fā)展，但是所產(chǎn)生的突發(fā)客流嚴(yán)重影響了大城市的交通暢通。目前，我國的一些大城市已經(jīng)有了應(yīng)對突發(fā)客流的措施與經(jīng)驗(yàn)，許多學(xué)者也提出了各種優(yōu)化方法，這些措施與方法多是從宏觀的角度考慮如何對突發(fā)客流整體上進(jìn)行有效的疏散，緩解突發(fā)客流期間的交通擁堵，缺乏對乘客所關(guān)注的公共交通換乘效率及換乘服務(wù)水平的提升進(jìn)行研究，突發(fā)客流條件下的公共交通換乘難、換乘效率低下的現(xiàn)象仍然普遍存在。 要解決目前突發(fā)客流條件下存在的公共交通換乘問題，提升大城市公共交通換乘服務(wù)水平，需要以特定的突發(fā)客流范圍進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)地研究。本文研究了突發(fā)客流的影響傳播特性，采用氣體擴(kuò)散理論中的煙羽模型所求得的最大影響距離來確定突發(fā)客流影響范圍。以大型活動(dòng)場館周邊的主要路段交叉點(diǎn)作為節(jié)點(diǎn)劃分交通小區(qū)，并假設(shè)突發(fā)客流從主節(jié)點(diǎn)處向外節(jié)點(diǎn)均勻擴(kuò)散，提出了誘增公共交通量預(yù)測方法。研究了有效公共交通出行路徑的具體方法以及多路徑選擇分配法、全有全無法、k短路徑分配法等誘增公共交通客流量分配方法。以平均換乘距離、人均換乘面積、換乘舒適度、平均換乘時(shí)間、公交運(yùn)能度、區(qū)間平均車速為指標(biāo)建立常規(guī)公交換乘評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系；以換乘設(shè)施面積、附近公交運(yùn)能度、平均換乘距離、平均換乘時(shí)間、換乘客流量為指標(biāo)建立地鐵站換乘效率評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。本文最后以成都市體育中心舉辦體育賽事為例，調(diào)查主要路段及公共交通線路，根據(jù)突發(fā)客流影響范圍來劃分小區(qū)，，采用全有全無法通過計(jì)算機(jī)編程對突發(fā)客流進(jìn)行分配；根據(jù)客流分配結(jié)果提出換乘優(yōu)化建議，并采用模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論、數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析理論分別對優(yōu)化后的常規(guī)公交站點(diǎn)及地鐵站點(diǎn)的換乘效率進(jìn)行評價(jià)，根據(jù)評價(jià)分析結(jié)果從交通管理與乘客出行的角度分別提出了改善意見與應(yīng)對措施。 研究結(jié)果表明，優(yōu)化后的地鐵站點(diǎn)換乘效率較好，而平均換乘時(shí)間這一指標(biāo)對常規(guī)公交換乘效率影響較大，實(shí)例分析中的常規(guī)公共交通站點(diǎn)的換乘效率在優(yōu)化后屬于中等水平，能夠滿足突發(fā)客流期間的換乘需求，并且乘客的平均換乘時(shí)間相對于未優(yōu)化之前較好，說明本文的換乘優(yōu)化方法有一定的實(shí)用性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid economic development of our country, people's demand for material and cultural is increasing. In recent years, many large cities in the country frequently hold large-scale sports and sports activities, although large-scale sports and cultural activities can meet the material and cultural needs of people. Promote the development of the city, but the sudden passenger flow has seriously affected the traffic of the big city. At present, some big cities in our country already have the measure and experience to deal with the sudden passenger flow, many scholars have also put forward various optimization methods. Most of these measures and methods are to consider from a macro perspective how to effectively evacuate the sudden passenger flow as a whole, so as to alleviate the traffic congestion during the sudden passenger flow. Lack of research on the public transport transfer efficiency and the improvement of transfer service level, public transport transfer is difficult under the condition of sudden passenger flow, and the phenomenon of low transfer efficiency is still widespread. In order to solve the problem of public transport transfer under the condition of sudden passenger flow at present, and to upgrade the level of public transport transfer service in big cities, In this paper, the influence and propagation characteristics of sudden passenger flow are studied. The maximum influence distance of smoke plume model in gas diffusion theory is used to determine the impact range of sudden passenger flow. Based on the assumption that the sudden passenger flow diffuses uniformly from the main node to the outer node, this paper puts forward a method to predict the volume of induced public traffic, and studies the specific method of effective public transportation route and the method of multi-path selection and allocation. There are all kinds of methods to increase the passenger flow of public transportation, such as the method of short path distribution, etc. The average transfer distance, the per capita transfer area, the comfort of transfer, the average transfer time, the degree of public transport capacity, etc., The evaluation index system of conventional bus transfer is established with the average speed of interval as the index, the area of transfer facilities, the transportation capacity of nearby public transportation, the average transfer distance, the average transfer time, This paper takes Chengdu Sports Center as an example to investigate the main sections and public transport lines, and divides the district according to the impact range of sudden passenger flow. According to the result of passenger flow distribution, the suggestion of transfer optimization is put forward, and the theory of fuzzy mathematics is adopted. The theory of data envelopment analysis evaluates the transfer efficiency of the optimized bus stations and subway stations respectively. According to the results of the evaluation and analysis, the improvement suggestions and countermeasures are put forward from the point of view of traffic management and passenger travel. The results show that the transfer efficiency of the optimized subway station is better, and the average transfer time has a great influence on the transfer efficiency of conventional public transportation. The transfer efficiency of the conventional public transport stations in the case study is of medium level after optimization, which can meet the transfer demand during the sudden passenger flow, and the average transfer time of the passengers is better than that before the optimization. It shows that the optimization method of transfer is practical.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U491.17

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本文編號(hào)：1588462