發(fā)布時間：2018-02-24 08:26

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 城市公交系統(tǒng) 公交流量預(yù)測 公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化 優(yōu)化效能評價　出處：《合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著城市經(jīng)濟(jì)、規(guī)模的不斷發(fā)展和人民生活水平的不斷提高,我國大中城市的交通出行壓力在不斷上升。作為城市系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分,城市公共交通系統(tǒng)為城市系統(tǒng)內(nèi)人員、物質(zhì)的流動提供必不可少的物質(zhì)條件,城市公交系統(tǒng)內(nèi)交通需求與供給的不平衡將會給城市經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的發(fā)展帶來非常大的影響。當(dāng)前,優(yōu)先發(fā)展城市公共交通系統(tǒng)、促進(jìn)出行需求的多樣性已經(jīng)成為廣大學(xué)者、政府部門公認(rèn)的解決大中城市交通問題的最有效途徑。因此,傳統(tǒng)公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化時僅僅考慮地面公交線路的布設(shè),忽視其他公共交通工具的做法存在很大的局限性,單一的考慮地面公交線網(wǎng)的布設(shè)已經(jīng)難以滿足城市交通出行多樣化的要求。在實際的公交線網(wǎng)規(guī)劃時,需要綜合考慮城市公交系統(tǒng)內(nèi)地面交通、軌道交通等多方面的規(guī)劃,從整體上發(fā)揮不同類型公交工具的優(yōu)勢,提高城市公交系統(tǒng)的服務(wù)效能。本文的研究主要圍繞城市公共汽車交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)劃的關(guān)鍵理論、技術(shù)展開,以學(xué)術(shù)意義和實用價值并重為原則,在城市公交網(wǎng)絡(luò)流量預(yù)測、城市公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化方法研究、公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化設(shè)計模型與算法研究、公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化效能評估研究等方面取得了一定的成果。本文的主要內(nèi)容如下： (1)公共交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)是城市發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ),本文在深入分析國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)之上,確定了對合肥市城市公交系統(tǒng)的資源配置與優(yōu)化應(yīng)當(dāng)堅持以局部調(diào)整與整體統(tǒng)籌的并舉的原則。通過分析城市公交線網(wǎng)交通流量的變化,有效的掌握相應(yīng)的交通出行規(guī)律,從而有利于根據(jù)實際情況制定合理的公交優(yōu)化方案。本文以公交系統(tǒng)內(nèi)站點的客流量變化為研究對象,通過深入分析其變化規(guī)律,針對不同類型的交通流量數(shù)據(jù),分別提出了基于經(jīng)驗?zāi)B(tài)分解的時間序列預(yù)測模型和基于經(jīng)驗?zāi)B(tài)分解的支持向量機(jī)模型,并明確了不同模型下的對于公交流量序列預(yù)測的預(yù)測適用范圍。 (2)城市公交線網(wǎng)是城市公交系統(tǒng)的基本構(gòu)成和核心。本文針對城市公交線網(wǎng)的特點,嘗試以蟻群優(yōu)化算法進(jìn)行公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化研究。通過分析了傳統(tǒng)蟻群算法的特點和不足,重點提出了基于信息素遞減、半動態(tài)候選列表的蟻群算法,并提出了dijkstra-蟻群混合算法用于相應(yīng)的公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化分析,所提算法解決了傳統(tǒng)蟻群算法的不足,并提高了蟻群算法運用于公交線路優(yōu)化的求解效能。 (3)城市公交線路優(yōu)化績效評估對于公交線路布設(shè)效能的判定至關(guān)重要。通過深入分析國內(nèi)外公交線網(wǎng)評價方法的優(yōu)點及不足,同時針對公交線路布設(shè)不同階段的特點,提取了相應(yīng)的評價指標(biāo)體系,上述評價指標(biāo)體系可有效的適用于公交線路前期布設(shè)及后期運營效能的定量評估。提出了基于分層聚類的主成分分析法運用于公交線路優(yōu)化效能評價。 (4)城市公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化的研究并不是相互分割的部分,需要將公交規(guī)劃的各個流程合理的融入整個公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化體系當(dāng)中,才能有效提高公交系統(tǒng)的服務(wù)效能。城市公交需求的變化是一個動態(tài)發(fā)展的過程,我國大城市的發(fā)展速度很快,公交規(guī)劃不僅需要考慮長期的公交發(fā)展需求,還應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮較短時間范圍內(nèi)的公交需求變化。本文以合肥市一環(huán)內(nèi)公交線優(yōu)化為例,深入分析了一環(huán)內(nèi)道路交通狀況及軌道交通建設(shè)情況,提出了基于dijkstra-蟻群混合的公交優(yōu)化算法,得到了基于距離最短和基于客流量最大的城市公交系統(tǒng)線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化模型,同時對公交路線優(yōu)化的前期數(shù)據(jù)采集、優(yōu)化問題求解、后期備選方案評價等過程進(jìn)行了研究。在提出的城市公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化研究體系的基礎(chǔ)之上,再以合肥市一環(huán)內(nèi)線路為實例研究了區(qū)域內(nèi)各級線路優(yōu)化調(diào)整方法,并給出了相應(yīng)備選方案集的效能評定。通過實例驗證,證明了本文理論體系的有效性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of city economy, the scale and the improvement of people's living standards, China's large and medium-sized city traffic pressure on the rise. As an important part of city system, city public transportation system for the city personnel within the system, an indispensable material condition to provide the material flow, the imbalance of traffic demand and supply the city bus system will have great effect on the economic and social development of the city. Currently, giving priority to the development of city public transportation system, promote the diversity of travel demand has become the majority of scholars, the most effective way to solve the traffic problems in large and medium-sized city government departments recognized. Therefore, only consider the layout of the ground bus lines of traditional bus lines network optimization, ignoring the other public transport approach has great limitations, consider the ground transit network design has been hard to full The foot of city traffic in transit. The diversified requirements of the actual network planning, need to consider the city bus system in ground transportation, rail transportation and other aspects of the planning, play different types of transportation advantage as a whole, improve the service efficiency of city bus system. The key theory, this study mainly focuses on the city bus traffic network planning techniques, the academic significance and practical value both for the principle, network traffic prediction in city bus, city bus line network optimization method research, research design model and algorithm optimization of public transit network, bus network optimization efficiency evaluation research and achieved certain results. The main contents of this paper are as follows:
(1) public transport network is the foundation of city development, based on in-depth analysis of the research status at home and abroad, to determine the configuration and optimization of Hefei city public transportation system resources should adhere to the principles of local adjustment and overall planning. By analyzing the changes of traffic flow of city bus line network, effective control traffic rules corresponding to the bus, to formulate the reasonable optimization scheme according to the actual situation. Based on the change of passenger flow in site bus system as the research object, through in-depth analysis of the variation of the needle on the traffic flow data of different types, are proposed. Time series empirical mode decomposition prediction model and empirical mode decomposition the support vector machine model based on clear and different model for bus flow sequence prediction scope.
(2) city transit network is the basic and core of the city bus system. Based on the characteristics of city public transit network, try to study the ant colony optimization algorithm to optimize the transit network. Through the analysis of the characteristics of the traditional ant colony algorithm and the insufficiency, puts forward the ant colony algorithm based on pheromone declining, semi dynamic candidates list dijkstra-, and puts forward the ant colony algorithm is used to optimize the analysis of transit network corresponding to the proposed algorithm to solve the shortcomings of traditional ant colony algorithm, and improved ant colony algorithm applied to solve the performance optimization of bus lines.
(3) city bus route optimization performance evaluation is essential for the bus line layout efficiency determination. Through in-depth analysis of advantages of evaluation methods at home and abroad of transit network and the insufficiency, at the same time for the bus line layout features of different stages, extract the corresponding evaluation index system, the evaluation index system can be effectively applied to the bus lines the layout and post operational efficiency of quantitative evaluation is proposed. The principal component analysis hierarchical clustering method is used to evaluate the efficiency based on the optimization of bus lines.
(4) and of the city public transportation wire optimization part is not separate, need to process the traffic planning reasonable bus network optimization into the whole system, we can effectively improve the service efficiency of public transportation system. The change of city bus demand is a dynamic development process, the development speed of big city in China soon, not only need to consider the public transit planning long-term development needs, should also consider the bus demand change short time range. This paper takes the Hefei city bus line optimization within a ring as an example, in-depth analysis of the situation of road traffic and rail transit construction of a ring, the bus hybrid optimization algorithm dijkstra- based on the ant colony, has been based on the shortest distance and the largest traffic system of city bus line network optimization model based on the previous data acquisition bus route optimization, optimization problem solving, The alternative evaluation process was studied. On the basis of proposed city bus network optimization research system, and then study the adjustment method of optimization at all levels of lines within the region within a ring line in Hefei city as an example, and gives the evaluation of the effectiveness of the corresponding options set. Through the example, show the validity of this the theory of the system.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.17

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本文編號：1529551