【摘要】：二級公路收費政策實施的20年來,我國公路里程不斷增加,國民經(jīng)濟(jì)獲得了快速增長。但是,時至今日,二級公路收費在發(fā)展中暴露出了一系列的問題,如:站點收支入不敷出、收費影響公路周邊土地開發(fā)等。因此,國家決心從2009年起到2016年底逐步取消二級公路收費。本文便是針對國家的這一決策,以青海省二級公路取消收費為例,論證在西部欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)二級公路取消收費這一政策實施的合理性。首先,論文對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的理論進(jìn)行了概述,闡述了國民經(jīng)濟(jì)評價的定義、適用范圍、特點、作用以及與財務(wù)評價的異同,為本文進(jìn)行國民經(jīng)濟(jì)評價的原因做了理論上的解釋。其次,建立并運用了交通量預(yù)測模型。本文在大量數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,運用MATLAB數(shù)據(jù)模擬以及效用函數(shù)法與指數(shù)分配模型驗證方法,建立了交通量預(yù)測模型,并將交通量預(yù)測模型應(yīng)用到青海省二級公路取消收費合理性的實證研究中,較為科學(xué)、準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測出了青海省二級公路取消收費后的交通轉(zhuǎn)移量。最后,運用國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的評價中定量與定性相結(jié)合的方法,計算出了取消二級公路收費,國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的增加值,從而驗證了取消二級公路收費的合理性。本文建立了國民經(jīng)濟(jì)評價因素定量化模型,并將國民經(jīng)濟(jì)評價因素定量化模型應(yīng)用到青海省二級公路取消收費合理性的實證研究中,計算出了取消二級公路收費后,國民經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的增加值。同時,定性論述了二級公路取消收費后對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的直接影響與二級公路取消收費后對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在拉動作用。
[Abstract]:In the past 20 years, the highway mileage of our country has been increasing and the national economy has gained rapid growth. However, nowadays, a series of problems have been exposed in the development of secondary highway toll, such as: the income and expenditure of the station exceeds the income and expenditure, the toll affects the development of the land around the highway, and so on. As a result, the country is determined to phase out secondary road tolls from 2009 until the end of 2016. In view of this decision of the country, this paper takes Qinghai Province as an example to demonstrate the rationality of the implementation of the policy of abolishing the second-level highway toll in the less developed areas of the western part of the country. Firstly, the paper summarizes the theory of national economy, expounds the definition, scope of application, characteristics, functions and similarities and differences between national economic evaluation and financial evaluation, and makes a theoretical explanation for the reason of the national economic evaluation in this paper. Secondly, the traffic volume forecasting model is established and applied. On the basis of a large number of data, this paper establishes a traffic volume forecasting model by using MATLAB data simulation, utility function method and exponential distribution model verification method. The traffic volume forecasting model is applied to the empirical study on the rationality of the second-level highway toll cancellation in Qinghai Province. The traffic transfer volume after the cancellation of the second-level highway toll in Qinghai Province is predicted scientifically and accurately. Finally, by combining quantitative and qualitative methods in the evaluation of national economy, the added value of abolishing secondary highway toll and national economy is calculated, and the rationality of abolishing secondary highway toll is verified. In this paper, the quantitative model of national economic evaluation factors is established, and the quantitative model of national economic evaluation factors is applied to the empirical research on the rationality of secondary highway toll cancellation in Qinghai Province, and the calculation is made after the cancellation of secondary highway tolling. The added value of national economic benefits. At the same time, the direct influence of secondary highway toll cancellation on national economy and the potential pulling effect of secondary highway toll cancellation on national economy are discussed qualitatively.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F542.5

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本文編號：2452255