【摘要】：電動(dòng)自行車由于自身方便、快捷的特點(diǎn)越來(lái)越受到人們的喜愛。同時(shí)由于道路中電動(dòng)自行車數(shù)量的迅速增長(zhǎng),嚴(yán)重影響了道路和交叉口的交通安全和通行效率。尤其是在平面交叉口中,混行條件下電動(dòng)自行車與機(jī)動(dòng)車的交通沖突現(xiàn)象十分嚴(yán)重,交通事故時(shí)有發(fā)生。因此,研究城市道路交叉口電動(dòng)自行車與機(jī)動(dòng)車交通沖突具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。論文首先通過調(diào)查了解,研究了電動(dòng)自行車的車輛特征和使用特征。根據(jù)實(shí)際的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)桂林市的五個(gè)交叉口電動(dòng)自行車車輛到達(dá)分布規(guī)律進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的分析,總結(jié)出城市平面交叉口各進(jìn)口道電動(dòng)自行車的到達(dá)分布服從負(fù)二項(xiàng)分布,得出其在交叉口進(jìn)口道排隊(duì)的平均密度和最大密度。其次研究了其釋放規(guī)律,得到了釋放時(shí)的飽和流率和行駛速度。根據(jù)實(shí)際調(diào)查,本文詳細(xì)研究了電動(dòng)自行車在平面交叉口的微觀行駛行為,分析了平面交叉口右轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)動(dòng)車與直行電動(dòng)自行車之間相互穿越的微觀行為,根據(jù)它們之間相互穿越的特點(diǎn),建立了其穿越選擇概率模型一Logistic回歸模型,然后根據(jù)桂林市交叉口實(shí)際調(diào)查的數(shù)據(jù)分析了影響交叉口內(nèi)直行電動(dòng)自行車與右轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)動(dòng)車之間相互穿越活動(dòng)決策因素的顯著性,標(biāo)定了Logistic回歸模型的參數(shù)。最后對(duì)建立的Logistic模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。重點(diǎn)分析了電動(dòng)自行車與機(jī)動(dòng)車的交通沖突,研究了電動(dòng)自行車對(duì)機(jī)動(dòng)車通行效率的影響,通過實(shí)際調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,提出了右轉(zhuǎn)和直行機(jī)動(dòng)車飽和流率的修正系數(shù)。最后,分析信號(hào)控制交叉口電動(dòng)自行車釋放規(guī)律、到達(dá)規(guī)律和沖突條件,建立了其與右轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)動(dòng)車沖突概率計(jì)算模型,并通過實(shí)際調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算出具體交叉口這兩股車流的沖突概率。
[Abstract]:Electric bicycle is more and more popular because of its convenience and speed. At the same time, due to the rapid growth of the number of electric bicycles in roads, the traffic safety and efficiency of roads and intersections are seriously affected. Especially in the intersection, the traffic conflict between electric bicycle and motor vehicle is very serious under the condition of mixed operation, and traffic accidents occur from time to time. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the conflicts between electric bicycles and motor vehicles at urban road intersections. First of all, through investigation and understanding, the paper studies the vehicle characteristics and usage characteristics of electric bicycle. According to the actual investigation data, the arrival distribution law of electric bicycle vehicles at five intersections in Guilin is analyzed in detail, and the arrival distribution of electric bicycles in the entrance roads of urban intersections is summed up according to the negative binomial distribution. The average density and maximum density of the queue at the intersection entrance are obtained. Secondly, the release law is studied, and the saturated flow rate and driving speed are obtained. According to the actual investigation, the micro driving behavior of electric bicycle at the intersection is studied in detail, and the micro behavior of the right turning vehicle and the straight electric bicycle passing through each other at the intersection is analyzed. According to the characteristics of the traversing between them, the Logistic regression model, which is the probability model of traversing selection, is established. Then, according to the actual investigation data of intersection in Guilin city, the significance of influencing factors of intercrossing decision-making between electric bicycle and right-turn motor vehicle in intersection is analyzed, and the parameters of Logistic regression model are calibrated. Finally, the established Logistic model is verified. The traffic conflict between electric bicycle and motor vehicle is analyzed emphatically, and the influence of electric bicycle on the traffic efficiency of motor vehicle is studied. Through the statistical analysis of actual investigation data, the correction coefficient of saturated flow rate of right-turn and direct motor vehicle is put forward. Finally, the release rule, arrival rule and conflict condition of electric bicycle at signal-controlled intersection are analyzed, and the probability model of collision between the vehicle and the right-turn vehicle is established. The conflict probability of the two traffic streams at the intersection is calculated by the actual investigation data.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U491.23

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