倒計時信號燈對非機動車穿越行為的影響分析
發(fā)布時間：2019-01-12 17:49
【摘要】：倒計時信號燈作為越來越為普遍的進行交通管控的一種方式,其影響效果研究卻并不透徹,尤其對于非機動車的影響效果研究甚少。本文為了充實倒計時對于非機動車影響效果的研究,創(chuàng)新性的將紅燈時長進行劃分,具體而詳細地研究在每個時間段內(nèi)倒計時對于非機動車的影響效果,通過實地調(diào)研收集數(shù)據(jù),進行有無倒計時下相關(guān)交通行為的對比;應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)建模分析倒計時對于穿越行為的影響作用,以及比較有無倒計時下影響穿越行為的主要因素。具體研究內(nèi)容包括:(1)有無倒計時條件下參照行人,對非機動車的違規(guī)行為比較研究。將實地調(diào)研收集到的數(shù)據(jù),應(yīng)用簡單的數(shù)理統(tǒng)計方法,在有、無倒計時兩種情境下,將紅燈區(qū)間分成黃燈、中間穩(wěn)定區(qū)間、早啟動區(qū)間分別研究行人和非機動車的違規(guī)情況針對。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),在整個紅燈區(qū)間內(nèi)倒計時信號燈能有效降低行人的違規(guī)率但對于非機動車違規(guī)率影響并不顯著;倒計時對于行人來說,在黃燈區(qū)間及早啟動區(qū)間均能顯著降低其違規(guī)率,在中間區(qū)間影響不顯著;而對于非機動車來說,在三個區(qū)間內(nèi)倒計時對其違規(guī)率影響均不顯著。進一步,比較了有無倒計時下行人和非機動車的細微行為差異,結(jié)果表明倒計時信號燈下的樣本表現(xiàn)的更趨于放松,且倒計時對于行人及非機動車細微行為的影響效果也略有不同。(2)應(yīng)用Logit回歸方法建立行為模型,對有無倒計時下影響穿越行為的因素進行探究。研究有無倒計時下不考慮早啟動的合規(guī)、機會主義、冒險主義行為的差異,結(jié)果表明,倒計時信號燈下騎行者不等待的冒險行為會減少,等待者也更愿意遵守規(guī)則。比較了有無倒計時下早啟動行為的差異,結(jié)果表明倒計時會顯著增加非機動車的早啟動行為。進一步研究還表明有無倒計時下不同區(qū)間內(nèi)的穿越行為影響因素并不完全相同,倒計時下影響穿越行為的因素明顯少于無倒計時情形。(3)研究倒計時對于非機動車的等待時間影響。應(yīng)用生存分析法探究非機動車的等待時間分布規(guī)律,應(yīng)用Cox建模,在不考慮早啟動行為及針對早啟動樣本兩種情況下分析影響等待時間的影響因素。結(jié)果表明在不考慮早啟動時,發(fā)現(xiàn)有無倒計時對于非機動車的等待時間影響不顯著;但對早啟動樣本,倒計時會顯著增加其早啟動的風(fēng)險,降低等待時間。并且,倒計時下影響等待時間的因素明顯少于無倒計時下的。
[Abstract]:As a more and more common way of traffic control, the effect of countdown signal lamp is not thoroughly studied, especially for non-motor vehicle. In order to enrich the research on the effect of countdown on non-motor vehicle, this paper innovatively divides the length of red light, and studies the effect of countdown on non-motor vehicle in detail in each time period. Collect the data through the field investigation, carry on the correlation traffic behavior under the countdown or not; The effect of countdown on traversing behavior was analyzed by mathematical modeling, and the main factors influencing traversal behavior were compared with or without countdown. The main contents are as follows: (1) comparison of non-motor vehicle violations with reference to pedestrians with or without countdown. With the data collected from the field investigation and application of simple mathematical statistical methods, the red light areas are divided into yellow lights with a stable interval in the middle of the red light region under the two situations of having or not countdown. The early start interval is used to study the violation of pedestrian and non-motor vehicle respectively. The results show that the countdown signal can effectively reduce the pedestrian violation rate in the whole red light range, but has no significant effect on the non-motor vehicle violation rate. For pedestrians, the early start of the yellow light interval can significantly reduce the violation rate, but not in the middle section, but for non-motor vehicles, the countdown in the three zones has no significant impact on the violation rate. Furthermore, the nuances between pedestrians and non-motor vehicles with or without countdown were compared, and the results showed that the samples under the countdown signal were more relaxed. The effect of countdown on the subtle behavior of pedestrians and non-motor vehicles is also slightly different. (2) Logit regression method is used to establish the behavior model to explore the factors that affect the traversing behavior under countdown or not. Whether there is any difference between early startup compliance, opportunism and adventurism without considering the countdown, the results show that the risk-taking behavior of the cyclist who does not wait under the countdown signal will be reduced, and the waiting person will be more willing to obey the rules. The results show that countdown can significantly increase the early start behavior of non-motor vehicles. Further studies have shown that the factors affecting the traversing behavior in different intervals with or without countdown are not exactly the same. The factors influencing the traversing behavior under countdown are obviously less than those without countdown. (3) the effect of countdown on the waiting time of non-motor vehicles is studied. The distribution of waiting time of non-motorized vehicles was studied by means of survival analysis, and the influence factors of waiting time were analyzed by using Cox model without considering the behavior of early start and the sample of early start. The results show that the countdown has no significant effect on the waiting time of non-motor vehicles without considering the early start, but the countdown can significantly increase the risk of early start and reduce the waiting time for early start samples. Moreover, the factors influencing the waiting time under countdown were significantly less than those without countdown.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491
本文編號：2408037
[Abstract]:As a more and more common way of traffic control, the effect of countdown signal lamp is not thoroughly studied, especially for non-motor vehicle. In order to enrich the research on the effect of countdown on non-motor vehicle, this paper innovatively divides the length of red light, and studies the effect of countdown on non-motor vehicle in detail in each time period. Collect the data through the field investigation, carry on the correlation traffic behavior under the countdown or not; The effect of countdown on traversing behavior was analyzed by mathematical modeling, and the main factors influencing traversal behavior were compared with or without countdown. The main contents are as follows: (1) comparison of non-motor vehicle violations with reference to pedestrians with or without countdown. With the data collected from the field investigation and application of simple mathematical statistical methods, the red light areas are divided into yellow lights with a stable interval in the middle of the red light region under the two situations of having or not countdown. The early start interval is used to study the violation of pedestrian and non-motor vehicle respectively. The results show that the countdown signal can effectively reduce the pedestrian violation rate in the whole red light range, but has no significant effect on the non-motor vehicle violation rate. For pedestrians, the early start of the yellow light interval can significantly reduce the violation rate, but not in the middle section, but for non-motor vehicles, the countdown in the three zones has no significant impact on the violation rate. Furthermore, the nuances between pedestrians and non-motor vehicles with or without countdown were compared, and the results showed that the samples under the countdown signal were more relaxed. The effect of countdown on the subtle behavior of pedestrians and non-motor vehicles is also slightly different. (2) Logit regression method is used to establish the behavior model to explore the factors that affect the traversing behavior under countdown or not. Whether there is any difference between early startup compliance, opportunism and adventurism without considering the countdown, the results show that the risk-taking behavior of the cyclist who does not wait under the countdown signal will be reduced, and the waiting person will be more willing to obey the rules. The results show that countdown can significantly increase the early start behavior of non-motor vehicles. Further studies have shown that the factors affecting the traversing behavior in different intervals with or without countdown are not exactly the same. The factors influencing the traversing behavior under countdown are obviously less than those without countdown. (3) the effect of countdown on the waiting time of non-motor vehicles is studied. The distribution of waiting time of non-motorized vehicles was studied by means of survival analysis, and the influence factors of waiting time were analyzed by using Cox model without considering the behavior of early start and the sample of early start. The results show that the countdown has no significant effect on the waiting time of non-motor vehicles without considering the early start, but the countdown can significantly increase the risk of early start and reduce the waiting time for early start samples. Moreover, the factors influencing the waiting time under countdown were significantly less than those without countdown.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491
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