【摘要】：突發(fā)事件發(fā)生后,將突發(fā)事件影響區(qū)域內(nèi)的人員及時(shí)地安置到安全地帶,是防止和減少人員傷亡、避免造成二次災(zāi)難事故的重要措施。當(dāng)前國內(nèi)針對(duì)突發(fā)事件的應(yīng)急管理尚處在起步階段,相關(guān)理論研究和應(yīng)用還比較薄弱。因此,為有序?qū)嵤┩话l(fā)事件發(fā)生后的交通組織,為后續(xù)提出應(yīng)急疏散組織方法提供理論條件和依據(jù),迫切需要對(duì)突發(fā)事件下的城市路網(wǎng)應(yīng)急疏散進(jìn)行全面系統(tǒng)的研究,建立符合突發(fā)事件情況下城市路網(wǎng)疏散特征的疏散優(yōu)化模型和突發(fā)事件下城市路網(wǎng)疏散的建模體系。本文在分析國內(nèi)外突發(fā)事件下城市交通應(yīng)急疏散研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,查閱了大量關(guān)于網(wǎng)絡(luò)優(yōu)化、動(dòng)態(tài)交通分配、元胞傳輸模型、交通管理控制等領(lǐng)域的文獻(xiàn),分析了突發(fā)事件的特性和現(xiàn)有的管理手段,在對(duì)突發(fā)事件疏散特性和交通需求特性進(jìn)行研究的基礎(chǔ)上,主要做了以下工作:首先,在動(dòng)態(tài)交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)的前提下建立了考慮信號(hào)交叉口延誤的突發(fā)事件下城市路網(wǎng)應(yīng)急交通疏散元胞傳輸模型,創(chuàng)新性地考慮了交叉口由信號(hào)控制的情況,并將路段、交叉口、起點(diǎn)和終點(diǎn)單獨(dú)考慮,克服了傳統(tǒng)元胞傳輸模型只考慮路段延誤、忽略交叉口排隊(duì)延誤和疏散起點(diǎn)等待時(shí)間的缺點(diǎn)。其次,在以上基礎(chǔ)上又建立了基于元胞傳輸模型(CTM)的突發(fā)事件下城市應(yīng)急疏散的雙層規(guī)劃模型,將實(shí)際疏散交通管理決策問題分解為擁有一個(gè)上層問題和若干具有各自優(yōu)化目標(biāo)的下層問題的雙層規(guī)劃模型,上層模型采用動(dòng)態(tài)系統(tǒng)最優(yōu)分配的原則進(jìn)行路徑規(guī)劃,下層模型對(duì)疏散路網(wǎng)各個(gè)交叉口信號(hào)配時(shí)進(jìn)行實(shí)時(shí)優(yōu)化,并采用KKT法和遺傳算法對(duì)模型進(jìn)行了求解。最后,結(jié)合目前智能交通、衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)航系統(tǒng)、視頻監(jiān)測(cè)技術(shù)、車聯(lián)網(wǎng)等技術(shù)的發(fā)展,提出了突發(fā)事件下城市路網(wǎng)應(yīng)急疏散的建模流程,并以算例的方式對(duì)文章模型和算法進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證,驗(yàn)證結(jié)果表明,本文提出的模型和算法能夠有效的提高突發(fā)事件下城市路網(wǎng)應(yīng)急疏散效率,為后續(xù)研究打下了基礎(chǔ),同時(shí)為應(yīng)急疏散交通管理者提供了一個(gè)可以參考的組織方案。
[Abstract]:It is an important measure to prevent and reduce the casualties and to avoid the secondary disaster accident by placing the personnel in the area of emergency into the safety zone in time after the occurrence of the emergency. At present, emergency management for emergencies in China is still in its infancy, and the relevant theoretical research and application are relatively weak. Therefore, in order to carry out traffic organization after emergency events in an orderly manner, and to provide theoretical conditions and basis for the subsequent development of emergency evacuation organization methods, it is urgent to conduct a comprehensive and systematic study on emergency evacuation of urban road network under emergency events. The optimal evacuation model in accordance with the characteristics of urban road network evacuation and the model system of urban road network evacuation under unexpected events are established. Based on the analysis of the current situation of urban traffic emergency evacuation at home and abroad, this paper reviews a lot of literature on network optimization, dynamic traffic assignment, cellular transmission model, traffic management and control, etc. The characteristics of emergency and the existing management methods are analyzed. On the basis of studying the characteristics of evacuation and traffic demand, the following work is done: first of all, Under the premise of dynamic traffic network, the cell transmission model of emergency traffic evacuation in urban road network is established under the emergency events considering the delay of signalized intersection, and the situation that intersection is controlled by signal is considered innovatively, and the road sections and intersections are taken into account. Considering the starting point and the end point separately, it overcomes the shortcoming that the traditional cellular transmission model only considers the road delay and neglects the queue delay and the evacuation starting point waiting time at the intersection. Secondly, a bilevel programming model of urban emergency evacuation based on cellular transmission model (CTM) is established. The actual evacuation traffic management decision problem is decomposed into a bilevel programming model with one upper layer problem and several lower level problems with respective optimization objectives. The upper layer model adopts the principle of optimal allocation of dynamic system to carry out path planning. The lower layer model is used to optimize the signal timing of each intersection of the evacuation road network in real time, and the model is solved by KKT method and genetic algorithm. Finally, combined with the development of intelligent transportation, satellite navigation system, video monitoring technology, vehicle networking and other technologies, the modeling process of emergency evacuation of urban road network under unexpected events is put forward. The model and algorithm are verified by an example. The results show that the proposed model and algorithm can effectively improve the efficiency of emergency evacuation of urban road network under sudden events, and lay a foundation for further research. At the same time for emergency evacuation traffic managers to provide a reference to the organization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U491

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本文編號(hào)：2395202