【摘要】：在分析城市道路交通擁堵指數(shù)總體變化規(guī)律的基礎(chǔ)上,綜合考慮天氣、節(jié)假日、重大活動(dòng)等因素對(duì)交通的影響,以未來(lái)3 h、第2天24 h每5 min的交通擁堵指數(shù)明細(xì)為預(yù)測(cè)目標(biāo)函數(shù),建立基于K近鄰的城市道路交通擁堵指數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)模型,確定了模型的狀態(tài)向量、距離計(jì)算方法、預(yù)測(cè)值計(jì)算方法等,并根據(jù)實(shí)際采集數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)模型各參數(shù)進(jìn)行標(biāo)定,實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)廣州市宏觀交通擁堵指數(shù)的短期、中期預(yù)測(cè).最后,以2016年1~2月的數(shù)據(jù)為例,對(duì)模型進(jìn)行測(cè)試驗(yàn)證.結(jié)果表明,預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)于普通日、特殊日的預(yù)測(cè)效果理想,且具有較強(qiáng)的可操作性,基本達(dá)到工程應(yīng)用效果.
[Abstract]:On the basis of analyzing the general changing law of urban road traffic congestion index, considering the influence of weather, holidays, major events and other factors on traffic, Taking the traffic congestion index of 24 hours per 5 min in the next 3 hours and the second day as the forecasting objective function, a forecast model of traffic congestion index of urban road based on K nearest neighbor is established, and the state vector and distance calculation method of the model are determined. Based on the actual data collected, the parameters of the model are calibrated, and the short-term and medium-term prediction of the macroscopic traffic congestion index of Guangzhou is realized. Finally, taking the data from January to February 2016 as an example, the model is tested and verified. The results show that the prediction model is ideal for ordinary days and special days, and has strong maneuverability, and basically achieves the engineering application effect.
【作者單位】： 廣州市公共交通數(shù)據(jù)管理中心;中山大學(xué)智能交通研究中心;廣東省智能交通系統(tǒng)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;廣州市交通信息指揮中心;
【基金】：廣東省省級(jí)科技計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2014B010118002) 廣東省交通運(yùn)輸廳科技項(xiàng)目(科技-2014-02-046)~~
【分類號(hào)】：U491.265
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本文編號(hào)：2291627