【摘要】：高效運轉(zhuǎn)的交通運輸網(wǎng)絡是經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的重要物質(zhì)基礎,構(gòu)建各種交通方式協(xié)同發(fā)展的綜合運輸網(wǎng)絡體系是未來交通運輸?shù)陌l(fā)展方向。運輸通道作為運輸網(wǎng)絡骨干,通道內(nèi)出行者的出行行為研究—直以來都是交通行為領域的重要課題。為了描述和解釋運輸通道內(nèi)客運出行方式選擇行為,本文從出行產(chǎn)生的內(nèi)在機理入手,探討出行者潛在心理因素對出行方式選擇的影響。首先,通過分析出行者出行全過程,概括出影響出行方式選擇的因素,構(gòu)建了出行決策過程模型,假設行為意向受知覺價值影響,知覺價值受方便陛、舒適陛、安全性、經(jīng)濟性和快速性這五個潛在因素的影響,運用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型分析以上各項潛在影響因素對出行結(jié)果作用大小,以及各潛在影響因素與個人顯性因素之間的相互關系；并在此基礎上,將出行者心理潛在變量納入效用函數(shù)中,建立涵蓋潛變量和顯變量共同作用的運輸通道客運量預測的SEM-MNL整合模型。最后,以成.渝運輸通道為例,通過實地問卷調(diào)查,結(jié)果顯示加入潛變量的整合模型檢驗指標比未考慮潛變量的傳統(tǒng)模型要更優(yōu),說明模型的準確率有大幅提升,潛變量對出行者選擇決策有顯著影響。此外,各出行方式結(jié)構(gòu)模型標準化路徑結(jié)果表明,知覺價值對出行行為意向有正面顯著性影響,出行者選擇鐵路的重要影響因素是經(jīng)濟性和快速I生,選擇客運汽車的出行者更偏愛的是快速『生和方便l生,而私家車出行者則更青睞私家車的舒適懶瞄莉快速性。
[Abstract]:Efficient transportation network is an important material basis for economic and social development. It is the direction of transportation development in the future to construct a comprehensive transportation network system with coordinated development of various transportation modes. As the backbone of transportation network, the study on the travel behavior of travelers in the channel has been an important subject in the field of traffic behavior. In order to describe and explain the choice behavior of passenger travel mode in the transportation channel, this paper discusses the influence of the potential psychological factors of travelers on the choice of travel mode from the internal mechanism of travel. Firstly, by analyzing the whole travel process of travelers, the factors influencing the choice of travel modes are summarized, and a travel decision process model is constructed. It assumes that behavior intention is affected by perceived value, and perceived value is convenient, comfortable and safe. The influence of the five potential factors of economy and rapidity is analyzed by using the structural equation model to analyze the relationship between the potential influencing factors and individual dominant factors. On this basis, the potential psychological variables of travelers are incorporated into the utility function, and a SEM-MNL integrated model for passenger volume prediction of transportation channels is established, which covers the interaction of latent variables and explicit variables. Finally, in order to achieve. Chongqing transportation corridor as an example, through the field survey, the results show that the integrated model test index with latent variables is better than the traditional model without considering latent variables, which shows that the accuracy of the model has been greatly improved. Latent variables have significant influence on traveler's choice decision. In addition, the results of standardized paths of each travel mode structure model show that perceived value has a positive and significant effect on travel behavior intention, and that the important factors affecting the traveler's choice of railway are economy and fast generation. Passengers who choose passenger cars prefer fast "health" and convenience "students", while private car travelers prefer the comfortable, lazy and rapid nature of private cars.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U116

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