誘導信息下出行者路徑選擇行為研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-07 21:58
【摘要】：可變信息板(VMS)在交通流誘導系統(tǒng)(TGS)中作為一種誘導信息發(fā)布的重要手段,能實時地為出行途中的出行者提供路徑誘導信息,引導其做出合理的路徑選擇行為。然而路徑選擇行為是出行者個人的活動,每個出行者都有自己的出行目標和行為準則,在VMS提供的誘導信息下進行獨立的判斷與評估,并做出決策,每個出行者的決策不僅影響當前的交通狀態(tài),而且還會影響未來的交通狀態(tài)。本文旨在研究誘導信息提供對出行者路徑選擇行為的關鍵影響因素,為制定合理有效的誘導策略提供參考與依據(jù)。論文首先分析了誘導信息下出行者路徑選擇決策過程,并設計SP調(diào)查問卷、收集影響路徑選擇的可能因素,統(tǒng)計調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),初步分析出影響較大的相關因素,包括出行者的性別、年齡、年收入、駕齡等個人屬性,出行目的、出行頻率等出行屬性,對VMS的關注頻率、對VMS的準確度評價等誘導信息屬性,以及道路等級、交通事件類型等道路屬性。其次,借助SPSS統(tǒng)計軟件在二元Logit回歸分析的基礎上對影響因素逐步剔除、篩選,提取出影響出行者路徑選擇的最顯著因素,并構建了誘導信息下的出行者路徑選擇模型。向該模型輸入不同影響因素的自變量,可以預測出行者改變路徑的概率。最后,對模型標定結(jié)果進行量化分析,結(jié)果表明,出行者的駕齡、年收入、對VMS的關注頻率和對VMS的準確度評價四種因素均在不同程度上對出行者路徑選擇有影響。隨著駕齡的增加,出行者對VMS誘導信息的依賴程度降低,根據(jù)誘導信息改變路徑的概率減��；年收入越高的出行者,對出行時間和出行時間延誤敏感度越大,根據(jù)誘導信息改變路徑的概率也越大；出行者對VMS的關注頻率及對VMS準確度評價越高,對誘導信息的服從率也越高。
[Abstract]:Variable information board (VMS) is an important means to publish guidance information in traffic flow guidance system (TGS). It can provide route guidance information for travelers on the way to travel in real time and guide them to make reasonable path selection behavior. However, path selection behavior is the individual activity of the traveler. Each traveler has its own travel goals and codes of conduct. Under the guidance information provided by the VMS, the behavior is judged and evaluated independently, and the decision is made. Each traveler's decision will not only affect the current state of traffic, but also affect the future state of traffic. The purpose of this paper is to study the key factors that influence the path selection behavior of travelers by providing induction information, and to provide a reference and basis for the formulation of reasonable and effective induction strategies. Firstly, the paper analyzes the decision-making process of traveler's path selection under induced information, designs SP questionnaire, collects the possible factors that affect the path selection, statistics the survey data, and preliminarily analyzes the relative factors that have a great influence on the path selection. It includes personal attributes such as sex, age, annual income, driving age, travel purpose, travel frequency and so on, the attention to VMS, the accuracy evaluation of VMS, and so on, as well as the road grade. Traffic event type and other road properties. Secondly, on the basis of binary Logit regression analysis, the most significant factors affecting the traveler's path selection are extracted by SPSS statistical software, and the most significant factors are extracted from the selection of the influencing factors based on the binary Logit regression analysis, and the traveller path selection model based on the induced information is constructed. By inputting independent variables of different factors into the model, the probability of changing the path of the traveler can be predicted. Finally, the model calibration results are quantitatively analyzed. The results show that the driving age, annual income, attention frequency to VMS and accuracy evaluation of VMS all affect the path selection of travelers to varying degrees. With the increase of driving age, the degree of dependence on VMS induced information decreases, and the probability of changing the path according to the induced information decreases. The higher the annual income, the greater the sensitivity to travel time and travel time delay. The higher the probability of changing the path according to the induced information, the higher the attention frequency of the traveler to VMS and the higher the evaluation of the accuracy of VMS, the higher the compliance rate of the induced information is.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U495
本文編號：2229531
[Abstract]:Variable information board (VMS) is an important means to publish guidance information in traffic flow guidance system (TGS). It can provide route guidance information for travelers on the way to travel in real time and guide them to make reasonable path selection behavior. However, path selection behavior is the individual activity of the traveler. Each traveler has its own travel goals and codes of conduct. Under the guidance information provided by the VMS, the behavior is judged and evaluated independently, and the decision is made. Each traveler's decision will not only affect the current state of traffic, but also affect the future state of traffic. The purpose of this paper is to study the key factors that influence the path selection behavior of travelers by providing induction information, and to provide a reference and basis for the formulation of reasonable and effective induction strategies. Firstly, the paper analyzes the decision-making process of traveler's path selection under induced information, designs SP questionnaire, collects the possible factors that affect the path selection, statistics the survey data, and preliminarily analyzes the relative factors that have a great influence on the path selection. It includes personal attributes such as sex, age, annual income, driving age, travel purpose, travel frequency and so on, the attention to VMS, the accuracy evaluation of VMS, and so on, as well as the road grade. Traffic event type and other road properties. Secondly, on the basis of binary Logit regression analysis, the most significant factors affecting the traveler's path selection are extracted by SPSS statistical software, and the most significant factors are extracted from the selection of the influencing factors based on the binary Logit regression analysis, and the traveller path selection model based on the induced information is constructed. By inputting independent variables of different factors into the model, the probability of changing the path of the traveler can be predicted. Finally, the model calibration results are quantitatively analyzed. The results show that the driving age, annual income, attention frequency to VMS and accuracy evaluation of VMS all affect the path selection of travelers to varying degrees. With the increase of driving age, the degree of dependence on VMS induced information decreases, and the probability of changing the path according to the induced information decreases. The higher the annual income, the greater the sensitivity to travel time and travel time delay. The higher the probability of changing the path according to the induced information, the higher the attention frequency of the traveler to VMS and the higher the evaluation of the accuracy of VMS, the higher the compliance rate of the induced information is.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U495
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