【摘要】：近些年來,我國由于公路交通事故造成的人身傷亡與財(cái)產(chǎn)損失居高不下,公路交通安全形勢不容樂觀,對公路交通安全問題的深入研究刻不容緩。本文通過分析公路交通安全的影響因素,選擇運(yùn)行速度指標(biāo)對公路線形安全性進(jìn)行研究。本文首先對常用的幾種速度指標(biāo)進(jìn)行簡要的介紹,對運(yùn)行速度的影響因素進(jìn)行分析,并對基于運(yùn)行速度進(jìn)行公路線形安全性評價(jià)的必要性和可行性作出論證。然后考慮到在運(yùn)行速度影響因素中的環(huán)境因素當(dāng)中,氣候條件會對運(yùn)行速度產(chǎn)生一定的影響,且不良天氣中常見的冰雪天氣會對行車安全造成嚴(yán)重的威脅,論證了天氣條件研究的必要性。接下來,從路面、駕駛員、車輛性能三個方面分析了冰雪天氣條件對車輛實(shí)際運(yùn)行速度的影響。然后從正常天氣條件和冰雪天氣條件兩個方面展開研究,得到了正常天氣條件和冰雪天氣條件兩種天氣條件下的四種典型路段上的大貨車實(shí)際運(yùn)行速度預(yù)測模型。接下來明確公路線形安全性綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)的選取原則和范圍,在此基礎(chǔ)上從基于運(yùn)行速度的協(xié)調(diào)性、舒適性、視覺性以及基于線形組合的協(xié)調(diào)性四個方面選取本文的公路線形安全性綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo),并給出各指標(biāo)的計(jì)算公式以及評價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),得到由四大指標(biāo)、十二小指標(biāo)組成的公路線形安全性綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。隨后對常用的綜合評價(jià)方法進(jìn)行分析比選,明確本文使用以模糊綜合評價(jià)法為基礎(chǔ)的集成綜合評價(jià)法。在評價(jià)指標(biāo)權(quán)重方面,使用經(jīng)聚類分析法改進(jìn)后得到的聚類層次分析法用以確定主觀權(quán)重,使用熵權(quán)法確定客觀權(quán)重,并組合得到組合權(quán)重。在評價(jià)指標(biāo)的隸屬度方面,使用梯形模糊分布法計(jì)算評價(jià)指標(biāo)隸屬度。在此基礎(chǔ)上,建立了對公路線形安全性進(jìn)行評價(jià)的多層次聚類模糊綜合評價(jià)模型。最后,結(jié)合延蒲高速的設(shè)計(jì)文件,應(yīng)用本文第三章建立的考慮天氣條件的大貨車實(shí)際運(yùn)行速度預(yù)測模型對延蒲高速待評價(jià)路段進(jìn)行正向大貨車運(yùn)行速度的預(yù)測,得到大貨車正向的運(yùn)行速度預(yù)測值。接下來應(yīng)用第四章建立的公路線形安全性評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,根據(jù)運(yùn)行速度預(yù)測值進(jìn)行評價(jià)指標(biāo)值的計(jì)算。在此基礎(chǔ)上,應(yīng)用多層次聚類模糊綜合評價(jià)模型計(jì)算本文評價(jià)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重、隸屬度并進(jìn)行模糊合成和綜合評價(jià),得出評價(jià)結(jié)論,并針對相應(yīng)安全性不良路段提出改善措施和建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the casualties and property losses caused by road traffic accidents in China remain high, and the situation of highway traffic safety is not optimistic, so it is urgent to study the problem of highway traffic safety deeply. In this paper, the influence factors of highway traffic safety are analyzed, and the safety of highway alignment is studied by selecting the running speed index. In this paper, several commonly used speed indexes are introduced briefly, the influencing factors of running speed are analyzed, and the necessity and feasibility of highway alignment safety evaluation based on running speed are demonstrated. And then considering that among the environmental factors that affect the speed of the operation, the climatic conditions will have a certain impact on the speed of the operation, and that the ice and snow weather that is common in bad weather will pose a serious threat to the safety of the traffic. The necessity of studying weather conditions is demonstrated. Then, the influence of snow and ice weather conditions on the actual speed of vehicle is analyzed from three aspects: road surface, driver and vehicle performance. Then from the normal weather conditions and ice and snow weather conditions two aspects of the study, the normal weather conditions and snow weather conditions under the two weather conditions of four typical sections of the actual operating speed prediction model of freight cars. Then the selection principle and scope of comprehensive evaluation index of highway alignment safety are made clear, and on this basis, based on the coordination and comfort of running speed, This paper selects the comprehensive evaluation index of highway alignment safety from four aspects of vision and coordination based on linear combination, and gives the calculation formula and evaluation standard of each index, and obtains four indexes. The comprehensive evaluation index system of highway alignment safety is composed of 12 small indexes. Then the common comprehensive evaluation method is analyzed and compared, and the integrated comprehensive evaluation method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is made clear in this paper. In the aspect of evaluating index weight, the improved clustering AHP method is used to determine the subjective weight, the entropy weight method is used to determine the objective weight, and the combined weight is obtained. In terms of membership degree of evaluation index, trapezoidal fuzzy distribution method is used to calculate membership degree of evaluation index. On this basis, a multi-level clustering fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established to evaluate the safety of highway alignment. Finally, combined with the design document of Yenpu Expressway, the forecast model of actual running speed of large freight car considering weather condition is established in the third chapter of this paper, which is used to predict the running speed of forward freight car on the section of Yenpu Expressway to be evaluated. The forward running speed prediction value of large freight car is obtained. Then, the evaluation index system of highway alignment safety is established in chapter 4, and the evaluation index value is calculated according to the forecast value of running speed. On this basis, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of multi-level clustering is applied to calculate the weight, membership degree, fuzzy synthesis and comprehensive evaluation of the evaluation index in this paper, and the evaluation conclusions are obtained. At the same time, the improvement measures and suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U412.3

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