【摘要】：最近幾年,中國(guó)的城市化速度越來越快的發(fā)展,城市居民出行困難的問題也越來越明顯。不同的出行個(gè)體選取不同的出行方法形成了城市的交通方式布局。交通方式選擇是交通規(guī)劃和政策制定的一個(gè)重要的和不可缺少的組成部分。目前,在城市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平下,研究居民在交通出行時(shí)對(duì)不同交通方式的大概利用情況,客觀有效地預(yù)測(cè)出交通區(qū)分方式,可以為科學(xué)合理的城市交通方式結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化提供決策依據(jù)。最近幾年,中國(guó)的主要城市都開始認(rèn)識(shí)到,掌握居民出行規(guī)律對(duì)城市交通規(guī)劃、組織管理和控制是非常重要的,因此也進(jìn)行了相應(yīng)地居民出行調(diào)查,以便更好地研究影響居民出行方式選擇的因素。本文通過對(duì)城市交通情況的實(shí)際調(diào)查及相關(guān)規(guī)劃資料的收集整理,分別就常規(guī)公交、快速公交、出租車和地鐵這四大公共交通方式及非公交方式現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行調(diào)查,同時(shí)對(duì)城市居民交通方式的主要特性及其影響因素進(jìn)行描述。針對(duì)當(dāng)前出行方式選擇行為模型很少考慮出行潛變量和潛變量對(duì)選擇結(jié)果產(chǎn)生影響的現(xiàn)狀,本文通過結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型刻畫潛變量與其測(cè)量變量之間的關(guān)系,并因此計(jì)算出潛變量的適配值；而后依據(jù)效用最大化理論,改進(jìn)以往二項(xiàng)Logit模型的效用函數(shù),建立包括潛變量作用的整合模型。綜合運(yùn)用SPSS、Smart PLS等專業(yè)軟件對(duì)模型求解過程進(jìn)行解釋。在確定選擇模型后,文章針對(duì)城市居民出行方式選擇主要的影響因素進(jìn)行區(qū)分并予以說明。根據(jù)構(gòu)建的模型,以南京市為例,對(duì)影響居民交通出行方式選擇的因素進(jìn)行問卷調(diào)查。首先對(duì)問卷數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì),再用Smart PLS對(duì)問卷潛變量數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行處理,得到潛變量的適配值。最后用SPSS計(jì)算Logit模型,對(duì)各潛變量的適配值以及對(duì)具有作用的顯變量值的參數(shù)進(jìn)行標(biāo)定并檢驗(yàn),比較分析了對(duì)城市居民出行方式選擇主要的影響因素。在對(duì)交通出行相關(guān)變量進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,最后給出了改善居民交通出行的相關(guān)措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's urbanization is growing faster and faster, and the problem of urban residents' travel difficulties is becoming more and more obvious. Different travel individuals choose different travel methods to form the urban traffic mode layout. The choice of transportation mode is an important and indispensable component of traffic planning and policy making. At present, at the level of urban social and economic development, the general situation of residents' utilization of different traffic modes during transportation travel is studied, and the traffic differentiation modes are predicted objectively and effectively. It can provide decision basis for scientific and reasonable urban traffic mode structure optimization. In recent years, major cities in China have begun to realize that it is very important for urban traffic planning, organization, management and control to master the rules of residents' travel, so they have also conducted a corresponding survey of residents' travel. In order to better study the factors that affect the choice of residents' travel mode. Through the actual investigation of the urban traffic situation and the collection and arrangement of the related planning data, this paper investigates the current situation of the four major public transport modes, namely, conventional public transport, bus rapid transit, taxi and subway, and the non-public transport modes respectively. At the same time, the main characteristics of urban residents' traffic mode and its influencing factors are described. In view of the fact that the current travel mode selection behavior model seldom considers the effect of trip latent variables and latent variables on the selection results, this paper describes the relationship between latent variables and their measurement variables through the structural equation model. According to the utility maximization theory, the utility function of the previous binomial Logit model is improved, and the integration model including the latent variable function is established. The process of solving the model is explained by SPSS Smart PLS and other professional software. After determining the selection model, the paper distinguishes and explains the main factors that affect the choice of urban residents' travel mode. According to the model, taking Nanjing as an example, a questionnaire survey was conducted on the factors affecting the choice of residents' travel mode. First, the questionnaire data are statistically analyzed, and then the latent variable data are processed by Smart PLS to get the suitable value of the latent variable. Finally, the Logit model is calculated by SPSS, and the parameters of each latent variable and the obvious variable are calibrated and tested, and the main factors affecting the choice of urban residents' trip mode are compared and analyzed. Based on the analysis of the related variables of traffic trip, the related measures to improve the transportation travel of residents are given in the end.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U491

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本文編號(hào)：2170286