【摘要】：針對水上服務(wù)區(qū)類型選擇的多重模糊性問題,提出基于模糊貝葉斯的決策方法,根據(jù)文獻(xiàn)確定水上服務(wù)區(qū)選擇的影響因素和決策準(zhǔn)則,建立四層決策框架;根據(jù)各服務(wù)區(qū)的供需關(guān)系對影響因素進(jìn)行模糊化,利用改進(jìn)的IF-THEN規(guī)則建立影響因素和輸入變量之間、影響因素和決策準(zhǔn)則之間的推理關(guān)系;利用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)對推理規(guī)則庫進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)換,通過計(jì)算貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的邊緣概率獲得決策方案值;對各節(jié)點(diǎn)的決策狀態(tài)賦予效用值及權(quán)重,獲得各水上服務(wù)區(qū)類型的綜合得分。將該方法應(yīng)用于蕪申運(yùn)河宜興水上服務(wù)區(qū)的類型選擇,結(jié)果表明,該方法能夠很好地實(shí)現(xiàn)水上服務(wù)區(qū)的類型選擇。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the multiple fuzziness of water service area selection, a decision method based on fuzzy Bayes is put forward. According to the literature, the influencing factors and decision criteria of water service area selection are determined, and a four layer decision frame is established. According to the relationship between supply and demand of each service area, the influence factors are fuzzy, and the reasoning relationship between the influence factors and input variables, the influence factors and the decision criteria is established by using the improved IF-THEN rule. The inference rule base is transformed by Bayesian network, the decision scheme value is obtained by calculating the edge probability of Bayesian network, and the utility value and weight are assigned to the decision state of each node, and the comprehensive score of each type of water service area is obtained. The method is applied to the type selection of the water service area in Yixing of Wushen Canal. The results show that the method can realize the type selection of the water service area very well.
【作者單位】： 武漢理工大學(xué)航運(yùn)學(xué)院;武漢理工大學(xué)內(nèi)河航運(yùn)技術(shù)湖北省重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;武漢理工大學(xué)智能交通系統(tǒng)研究中心;
【基金】：國家科技支撐計(jì)劃(2015BAG20B05) 高等學(xué)校博士學(xué)科點(diǎn)專項(xiàng)科研基金(20130143120014)
【分類號】：U697

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