本文選題：恐怖襲擊 + 級(jí)聯(lián)失效�。� 參考：《西南交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：發(fā)生在地面設(shè)施上的恐怖襲擊事件,極有可能對(duì)路網(wǎng)交通產(chǎn)生影響。這種外界刺激和路網(wǎng)單元相互作用引起的路網(wǎng)整體性能損失就是恐怖襲擊對(duì)路網(wǎng)的影響后果。量化恐怖襲擊對(duì)路網(wǎng)交通造成的影響,對(duì)全面評(píng)價(jià)恐怖襲擊事件的后果、增強(qiáng)對(duì)恐怖襲擊的應(yīng)急能力有重要意義。本文通過構(gòu)建網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,研究恐怖襲擊事件對(duì)路網(wǎng)交通的影響后果。主要研究內(nèi)容如下：首先,分析本文研究的具體情境,建立路網(wǎng)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,并定義相關(guān)的模型參數(shù)�？植酪u擊爆發(fā)時(shí)給居民造成很大的心理壓力和恐慌情緒,居民對(duì)安全性有很高的要求。這種要求會(huì)體現(xiàn)在他們的路徑選擇中。為了體現(xiàn)這一特點(diǎn),需要將恐怖襲擊下路段的危險(xiǎn)程度進(jìn)行量化。本文將爆炸下路段承受的最大的沖擊波超壓作為路段危險(xiǎn)程度,并給出計(jì)算方法。在已有研究的基礎(chǔ)上選取沖擊波超壓的閾值,確定恐怖襲擊直接導(dǎo)致的失效路段。交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)是具有負(fù)載的網(wǎng)絡(luò),在評(píng)估突發(fā)事件對(duì)其影響時(shí),必須要考慮流量的分配。本文根據(jù)出行者是否能在出行前獲取失效路段的信息,將恐怖襲擊對(duì)路網(wǎng)的影響狀態(tài)分為了兩個(gè)階段：爆發(fā)期和穩(wěn)定期。并且分別給出了兩個(gè)時(shí)期的流量分配方式。恐怖襲擊會(huì)對(duì)路網(wǎng)交通影響會(huì)造成兩方面的后果：拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)變化和運(yùn)行狀態(tài)變化。本文選取了拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)指標(biāo)和運(yùn)行狀態(tài)指標(biāo),對(duì)恐怖襲擊的影響進(jìn)行量化。并且利用層次分析法,確定了各個(gè)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重�；谏鲜龇治�,本文構(gòu)建了用以評(píng)價(jià)恐怖襲擊對(duì)交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)影響的數(shù)學(xué)模型,仿真結(jié)果表明本文構(gòu)建的模型和算法是可行的。分析結(jié)果表明：在恐怖襲擊的穩(wěn)定期,路網(wǎng)交通所受到的影響要比在爆發(fā)期小。因此,在恐怖襲擊發(fā)生后,應(yīng)該盡快發(fā)布受損路段信息,勸導(dǎo)非必要的出行,盡快進(jìn)入出行穩(wěn)定期。
[Abstract]:Terrorist attacks on ground facilities are likely to have an impact on road network traffic. The overall loss of road network performance caused by external stimulation and network unit interaction is the consequence of terrorist attack on road network. It is of great significance to quantify the impact of terrorist attacks on road network traffic, to evaluate the consequences of terrorist attacks in an all-round way, and to enhance the emergency response to terrorist attacks. Based on the network model, this paper studies the impact of terrorist attacks on road network traffic. The main research contents are as follows: firstly, the specific situation of this paper is analyzed, the network model of road network is established, and the relevant model parameters are defined. Terrorist attacks caused great psychological pressure and panic to the residents, and residents have high requirements for safety. This requirement will be reflected in their path choice. In order to reflect this characteristic, it is necessary to quantify the dangerous degree of the road under the terrorist attack. In this paper, the maximum shock wave overpressure under explosion is regarded as the dangerous degree of the section, and the calculation method is given. Based on the existing research, the threshold of shock wave overpressure is selected to determine the failure section directly caused by terrorist attack. Traffic network is a load network. When evaluating the impact of unexpected events, it is necessary to consider the distribution of traffic. According to whether the traveler can obtain the information of the failure section before the trip, this paper divides the influence state of the terrorist attack on the road network into two stages: the outbreak period and the stable period. And the two periods of traffic distribution mode are given respectively. The impact of terrorist attacks on road network traffic will result in two aspects: topology change and operation state change. In this paper, the topological structure index and the running state index are selected to quantify the impact of terrorist attacks. The weight of each index is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Based on the above analysis, a mathematical model is constructed to evaluate the impact of terrorist attacks on traffic networks. The simulation results show that the proposed model and algorithm are feasible. The results show that in the stable period of terrorist attack, the road network traffic is affected less than in the outbreak period. Therefore, after the terrorist attack, we should release the damaged road information as soon as possible, persuade non-essential travel, and enter the travel stability period as soon as possible.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U491

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本文編號(hào)：1916106