本文選題：突發(fā)事件 + 決策社會(huì)傳染��； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),隨著城市化的發(fā)展,人口大量涌入城市,城市交通壓力越來(lái)越大,突發(fā)事件一旦爆發(fā),極易造成城市交通癱瘓,如果處理不當(dāng),會(huì)造成嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和人員傷亡,為應(yīng)對(duì)各種突發(fā)事件,各國(guó)政府及相關(guān)研究機(jī)構(gòu)都在積極的研究城市中的應(yīng)急措施,其中,制定應(yīng)急交通疏散方案被認(rèn)為是避免和減輕突發(fā)事件造成危害的最有效的一種方式,作為應(yīng)急疏散中的兩大核心內(nèi)容,研究如何準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)疏散需求曲線以及進(jìn)行合理有效的疏散交通分配,對(duì)整個(gè)疏散方案的制定、進(jìn)而保障受災(zāi)區(qū)域的財(cái)產(chǎn)和生命安全具有重要的意義。本文重點(diǎn)研究了突發(fā)事件下城市道路交通應(yīng)急疏散建模的兩個(gè)核心內(nèi)容,即疏散曲線需求預(yù)測(cè)和疏散交通分配。首先,分析了影響人們疏散決定的因素,從決策制定的社會(huì)傳染性角度,基于一個(gè)傳染病模型(Susceptible-Infective,簡(jiǎn)稱SI),建立了一種可以公式化刻畫疏散需求曲線的模型,來(lái)揭示疏散需求曲線形成的機(jī)理,并給出了模型的求解算法和敏感性分析方法,通過(guò)算例對(duì)模型特征進(jìn)行詳細(xì)分析。然后,針對(duì)由私家車構(gòu)成的疏散車輛的疏散交通分配問(wèn)題,提出了疏散過(guò)程中應(yīng)該兼顧疏散效率與社會(huì)公平性的理念,基于元胞傳輸理論(Cell Transmission Model,簡(jiǎn)稱CTM),建立了一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)交通分配線性規(guī)劃模型,并通過(guò)算例對(duì)模型特征進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)地分析,最后通過(guò)一個(gè)天津爆炸案例對(duì)模型展開(kāi)實(shí)證分析。在模型特征分析中得出了一系列重要的結(jié)論:對(duì)于疏散需求曲線預(yù)測(cè)模型而言,模型結(jié)果具有S曲線的變化特征,即累計(jì)疏散百分比呈現(xiàn)S型曲線規(guī)律增長(zhǎng),而且各影響因素對(duì)模型的影響效果是顯著的,如受社會(huì)因素的影響,孤立小區(qū)由于弱的社會(huì)影響性,總是滯后那些周邊小區(qū)多的小區(qū)的疏散需求;對(duì)于疏散動(dòng)態(tài)交通分配模型而言,得到了"兼顧目標(biāo)更優(yōu)"的結(jié)論,即當(dāng)疏散目標(biāo)從完全疏散效率最優(yōu)變?yōu)榧骖櫴枭⑿逝c公平最優(yōu)(k=1)時(shí),整體疏散效率下降幅度很小,但是重危小區(qū)疏散效率得以大幅度提高,而當(dāng)目標(biāo)繼續(xù)變?yōu)楣叫首顑?yōu)時(shí),整體疏散效率就會(huì)下降很多。此外,當(dāng)很多因素變化(如避難所開(kāi)啟數(shù)量減少)時(shí),這一結(jié)論仍舊成立。在天津案例實(shí)證分析中發(fā)現(xiàn),結(jié)果中出現(xiàn)的很多現(xiàn)象均可以用模型特征分析中得到的結(jié)論來(lái)解釋,如孤立小區(qū)疏散需求的滯后性等。此外,在兼顧效率與公平的疏散目標(biāo)下,模型分配結(jié)果中各個(gè)小區(qū)動(dòng)態(tài)交通疏散路徑的選擇較簡(jiǎn)單,整個(gè)疏散過(guò)程中共出現(xiàn)三種交通分配狀態(tài),在實(shí)際中,此目標(biāo)下疏散交通分配方案更容易執(zhí)行。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of urbanization, a large number of people pour into cities, and the pressure of urban traffic is increasing. Once an emergency breaks out, it is easy to cause traffic paralysis in cities. If it is not handled properly, it will cause serious economic losses and casualties. In order to deal with all kinds of emergencies, governments and relevant research institutions are actively studying emergency measures in cities, among which, the establishment of emergency traffic evacuation programs is considered to be the most effective way to avoid and mitigate the hazards caused by emergencies. As the two core contents of emergency evacuation, how to accurately predict the evacuation demand curve and carry out reasonable and effective evacuation traffic distribution, and formulate the whole evacuation plan, It is of great significance to ensure the safety of property and life in the affected area. This paper focuses on the two core contents of emergency evacuation modeling of urban road traffic, namely, the demand prediction of evacuation curve and the distribution of evacuation traffic. First of all, the factors influencing people's evacuation decision are analyzed. From the point of view of social infectivity of decision making, based on a contagious disease model, Susceptible-Infective (SIQ), a model can be formulated to describe evacuation demand curve. To reveal the formation mechanism of evacuation demand curve, the algorithm of solving the model and the sensitivity analysis method are given, and the characteristics of the model are analyzed in detail by an example. Then, aiming at the problem of evacuation traffic allocation of private cars, the paper puts forward the idea that the evacuation efficiency and social equity should be taken into account in the evacuation process. Based on the cell Transmission model, a dynamic traffic assignment linear programming model is established, and the model features are analyzed in detail by a numerical example. Finally, an empirical analysis of the model is carried out through a Tianjin explosion case. A series of important conclusions are drawn in the analysis of model features: for the prediction model of evacuation demand curve, the result of the model has the characteristics of the variation of S curve, that is, the cumulative evacuation percentage is increasing according to the law of S-shaped curve. Moreover, the effect of each influencing factor on the model is remarkable. For example, because of the social factors, the isolated community always lags behind the evacuation demand of the surrounding community because of its weak social influence. For the dynamic traffic allocation model of evacuation, the conclusion of "considering the goal better" is obtained, that is, when the evacuation target changes from the optimal evacuation efficiency to the optimal evacuation efficiency and fairness, the overall evacuation efficiency decreases very little. However, the evacuation efficiency of the seriously endangered community can be greatly improved, and when the goal continues to become the optimal efficiency of fairness, the overall evacuation efficiency will decline a lot. Moreover, this conclusion remains true when a number of factors change, such as a decrease in the number of shelters open. In the empirical analysis of Tianjin case, it is found that many phenomena in the results can be explained by the conclusions of the model characteristic analysis, such as the lag of evacuation demand in isolated residential areas, and so on. In addition, under the objective of taking both efficiency and fairness into account, the choice of dynamic traffic evacuation path in each residential area in the model allocation result is relatively simple. There are three traffic assignment states in the whole evacuation process, and in practice, Under this goal, evacuation traffic allocation scheme is easier to implement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U491

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本文編號(hào)：1900745