本文選題：交通事故概率 + 元胞自動機(CA)模型��； 參考：《中國安全科學(xué)學(xué)報》2017年07期

【摘要】：為給交通管控提供決策支持以降低道路事故率,在對雨天高速公路彎道車輛受力和可能交通事故分析的基礎(chǔ)上,建立一個雨天可能發(fā)生事故的單向雙車道元胞自動機(CA)模型。通過仿真試驗和實際統(tǒng)計事故率的比較對模型予以初步驗證。對不同可變速度限制(VSL)及道路幾何線性參數(shù)值的交通流非線性行為進行仿真和事故概率計算。結(jié)果表明:VSL是雨天降低事故概率非常有效的方式,特別在彎道長度大和彎道半徑小的路段愈加明顯;應(yīng)依據(jù)所提出的CA模型的仿真結(jié)果和具體道路實際,針對不同的降雨強度設(shè)置不同的速度限制值,以保證交通安全。
[Abstract]:In order to provide decision support for traffic control in order to reduce road accident rate, a one-way two-lane cellular automaton CAA model is established on the basis of the analysis of force and possible traffic accidents of curved vehicles on rainy days. The model is preliminarily verified by the comparison of simulation test and actual statistical accident rate. The nonlinear behavior of traffic flow with different variable speed constraints (VSLs) and road geometric linear parameters was simulated and accident probability was calculated. The results show that: VSL is a very effective way to reduce the probability of accidents on rainy days, especially in the sections with large bend length and small radius, the simulation results of the proposed CA model and the actual road should be taken into account. Different speed limits are set for different rainfall intensity to ensure traffic safety.
【作者單位】： 河北工業(yè)大學(xué)土木與交通學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金資助(50478088) 河北省自然科學(xué)基金資助(E2015202266)
【分類號】：U491.31
，

本文編號：1805678