本文選題：魯棒性 + 隨機(jī)交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)��； 參考：《南京大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：現(xiàn)代社會中,交通擁堵問題已經(jīng)成為一個嚴(yán)重的社會問題,城市交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)的建設(shè)顯得日益重要。相關(guān)學(xué)者和工作者提出了不少緩解交通擁堵問題的管理策略。然而由于現(xiàn)實(shí)交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)中存在許多不確定因素,這些策略實(shí)際效果不盡如人意。因此,本文基于魯棒性對隨機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的交通擁堵管理策略進(jìn)行了相關(guān)研究。針對最具代表性的擁擠收費(fèi)策略和可交易路票策略,本文首先驗(yàn)證了確定性網(wǎng)絡(luò)中兩者的等價性,同時舉例說明了隨機(jī)交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)中兩者的差異。接著,對于可交易路票策略,本文假設(shè)隨機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的所有狀態(tài)是由一組不確定因素集合決定的,出行者選擇所處狀態(tài)下的最小出行成本路徑。并用網(wǎng)絡(luò)流量預(yù)測值與狀態(tài)集的最小期望殘量(ERM)來定義預(yù)測值的魯棒性,同時通過光滑化梯度投影算法(SPG)對相關(guān)算例進(jìn)行了求解。對于擁擠收費(fèi)策略中的中心區(qū)域收費(fèi)策略,將固定費(fèi)率在一段時間內(nèi),能夠有效控制中心區(qū)域車流量小于閥值的概率定義為為該費(fèi)率下策略的可靠性,并由此來衡量策略對于交通擁堵控制的魯棒性。此外,考慮了兩種情景：(ⅰ)不完全信息網(wǎng)絡(luò),出行時間是隨機(jī)的,出行者選取期望出行成本最小的路徑；(ⅱ)完全信息網(wǎng)絡(luò),出行時間是Day-to-Day的模式,出行者選取當(dāng)天出行成本最小的路徑�；谶@兩種情景,分別進(jìn)行了算例分析。結(jié)果表明：當(dāng)可靠性越高時,每提高一個百分點(diǎn)的可靠性,所需要增收的收費(fèi)費(fèi)率也隨之增高。針對此現(xiàn)象,本文進(jìn)一步進(jìn)行了靈敏度分析,并提出了相關(guān)的評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)以平衡收費(fèi)費(fèi)率與可靠性。
[Abstract]:In modern society, traffic congestion has become a serious social problem, and the construction of urban traffic network is becoming more and more important.Scholars and workers have put forward a lot of management strategies to alleviate traffic congestion.However, due to the existence of many uncertain factors in the real traffic network, the actual effect of these strategies is not satisfactory.Therefore, based on robustness, traffic congestion management strategies in stochastic networks are studied in this paper.Aiming at the most representative congestion pricing strategy and tradable route ticket strategy, this paper first verifies the equivalence of the two in deterministic networks, and illustrates the differences between the two in stochastic traffic networks.Then, for tradable routing strategies, this paper assumes that all states in the stochastic network are determined by a set of uncertain factors, and the traveler chooses the minimum travel cost path in the state in which they are located.The robustness of the prediction value is defined by the network traffic prediction value and the minimum expected residual value of the state set. At the same time, the correlation example is solved by smoothing gradient projection algorithm (SPG).For the central area charging strategy in congestion charging strategy, the probability that the fixed rate can effectively control the traffic flow less than the threshold is defined as the reliability of the strategy under the fixed rate for a period of time.And then measure the robustness of the strategy to traffic congestion control.In addition, two scenarios: (I) incomplete information network are considered, the travel time is random, the traveler selects the path (II) complete information network with the least expected travel cost, and the travel time is the mode of Day-to-Day.Travelers choose the path with the lowest travel cost on that day.Based on these two scenarios, a numerical example is given.The results show that the higher the reliability is, the higher the charge rate is when the reliability is raised by one percentage point.In view of this phenomenon, the sensitivity analysis is further carried out, and the relevant evaluation criteria are put forward to balance the charge rate and reliability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491;O224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 李志純,谷強(qiáng),史峰;彈性需求下?lián)頂D道路收費(fèi)的模型與算法研究[J];交通運(yùn)輸工程學(xué)報(bào);2001年03期

，

本文編號：1756626