發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-03 08:00

  本文選題：高速公路　切入點(diǎn)：線形指標(biāo)　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：通過對(duì)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的深入分析,分山嶺區(qū)、重丘區(qū)和平原區(qū)三種地形條件,研究了高速公路幾何線形、車速與事故率的關(guān)系,建立了基于負(fù)二項(xiàng)分布的事故預(yù)測(cè)模型,并結(jié)合敏感性分析給出了線形優(yōu)化和車速控制的建議,具有重要的實(shí)際應(yīng)用價(jià)值。從高速公路路政管理部門收集到共計(jì)23001起交通事故數(shù)據(jù);依據(jù)“同質(zhì)法”對(duì)上述高速公路進(jìn)行了事故預(yù)測(cè)單元?jiǎng)澐?共得最小單元15148個(gè);從流量觀測(cè)站得到了事故預(yù)測(cè)單元近幾年以來的年平均日交通量數(shù)據(jù)。整合處理歷年來的交通事故數(shù)據(jù)、幾何線形數(shù)據(jù)、車速數(shù)據(jù)以及交通量數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建一一對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系,建立了不同地形條件下高速公路事故率影響因素分析數(shù)據(jù)庫。采用回歸分析的方法,分山嶺區(qū)、重丘區(qū)和平原區(qū)三種地形條件,分析單一線形指標(biāo)與億車公里事故率的關(guān)系,并在此基礎(chǔ)上分析了組合線形指標(biāo)(彎坡組合路段、平豎曲線組合路段、長大坡路段等)與事故率的關(guān)系,并據(jù)此確定了事故率最低時(shí)所對(duì)應(yīng)的線形條件,即本文所指的理想線形條件。采用回歸分析的方法分析了山嶺區(qū)、重丘區(qū)和平原區(qū)高速公路平均速度、運(yùn)行速度、大小型車速度差、車速離散度與事故率的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明高速公路事故率隨平均速度、運(yùn)行速度、大小型車速度差、車速離散度的增加而顯著增加,且山嶺區(qū)高速公路事故數(shù)高于其他兩種地形條件下的事故率。分析了Poisson系列模型的適用特點(diǎn),針對(duì)交通事故分布較為離散的特性,選取了Vuong統(tǒng)計(jì)量、α的t統(tǒng)計(jì)量、AIC、BIC等參數(shù)作為模型選擇的依據(jù),最終構(gòu)建了基于負(fù)二項(xiàng)分布的適用于不同地形條件的交通事故預(yù)測(cè)模型。事故預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果表明對(duì)于具有一定長度的高速公路而言,事故預(yù)測(cè)模型具有比較高的預(yù)測(cè)精度。依據(jù)局部敏感性分析的原理,分析了高速公路事故預(yù)測(cè)模型中各變量的敏感系數(shù)大小。結(jié)合敏感性分析,用事故數(shù)增長系數(shù)的均值代表可以接受的安全水平上限。以山嶺區(qū)和重丘區(qū)高速公路平縱組合路段為研究對(duì)象,得出基于行車安全的高速公路平縱組合路段關(guān)鍵線形指標(biāo)的取值的推薦值。以山嶺區(qū)和重丘區(qū)高速公路上下坡路段和平曲線路段上的運(yùn)行速度為研究對(duì)象,得出基于行車安全的高速公路上下坡路段和平曲線路段車速控制的推薦值。
[Abstract]:Based on the deep analysis of the investigation data, the relationship among the geometry, speed and accident rate of expressway is studied, and the accident prediction model based on negative binomial distribution is established, which is divided into three kinds of terrain conditions: mountain area, heavy hill area and plain area. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the suggestions of linear optimization and speed control are given, which have important practical application value. A total of 23001 traffic accidents data were collected from highway administration department. According to the homogeneity method, the accident prediction units of the freeway mentioned above are divided into 15148 minimum units. The annual average daily traffic volume data of the accident prediction unit in recent years are obtained from the flow observation station. The traffic accident data, geometric line data, speed data and traffic volume data are integrated and processed over the years, and a one-to-one correspondence is constructed. In this paper, the analysis database of the factors influencing the accident rate of expressway under different terrain conditions is established. By means of regression analysis, the relationship between the single linear index and the accident rate of 100 million vehicles per kilometer is analyzed by means of regression analysis, which is divided into three topographic conditions: mountain area, heavy hill area and plain area. On this basis, the relationship between the combined linear index (bending and slope combination, horizontal and vertical curve combination, long slope section, etc.) and the accident rate is analyzed, and the corresponding linear conditions when the accident rate is lowest are determined. The method of regression analysis is used to analyze the average speed, running speed and speed difference of large and small vehicles in mountain area, heavy hill area and plain area. The result shows that the accident rate of expressway increases significantly with the increase of average speed, running speed, speed difference of large and small vehicles, and the increase of speed dispersion. The accident rate of expressway in mountain area is higher than that under the other two kinds of terrain. This paper analyzes the applicable characteristics of Poisson series models, aiming at the discrete characteristics of traffic accident distribution. The parameters such as Vuong statistic, 偽 -t statistic and AIC-BIC are selected as the basis of model selection. Finally, a traffic accident prediction model based on negative binomial distribution is constructed, which is suitable for different terrain conditions. The result of accident prediction shows that for freeway with certain length, According to the principle of local sensitivity analysis, the sensitivity coefficient of each variable in the accident prediction model of expressway is analyzed. The upper limit of acceptable safety level is represented by the mean value of the increase coefficient of accident number. The horizontal and vertical combination section of expressway in mountain area and heavy hill area is taken as the research object. The recommended value of the key linear index of the horizontal and vertical combination section of expressway based on driving safety is obtained. The running speed of the downhill section and the curve section on the downhill section of the expressway in the mountain area and the heavy hill area is taken as the research object. The recommended value of speed control on the downhill section and curve section of expressway based on driving safety is obtained.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U491.31

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本文編號(hào)：1560180