本文關(guān)鍵詞： 道路作業(yè)區(qū) 匯合行為 駕駛模擬器 避免碰撞時(shí)間 匯合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)進(jìn)程的加快,由于改擴(kuò)建、維修施工作業(yè)而產(chǎn)生的道路作業(yè)區(qū)越來越多。道路作業(yè)區(qū)的出現(xiàn)不僅極大地降低了道路通行能力,造成交通擁堵,而且使車流被迫產(chǎn)生分流、合流、跟馳等復(fù)雜的駕駛行為,帶來交通安全隱患。另外,駕駛員作為交通系統(tǒng)中最活躍又最不可控的因素,在作業(yè)區(qū)這樣復(fù)雜的駕駛環(huán)境中其行為極易產(chǎn)生較大波動(dòng),一旦未能及時(shí)采取相應(yīng)駕駛措施,很有可能造成嚴(yán)重的交通事故。因此,道路作業(yè)區(qū)的駕駛行為研究是作業(yè)區(qū)交通安全研究的重要組成部分。本文以駕駛員在道路作業(yè)區(qū)的匯合行為為研究重點(diǎn),通過駕駛模擬器建立不同匯合標(biāo)志位置和不同車流密度的模擬場(chǎng)景,采集不同性別、不同職業(yè)人員的實(shí)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù),利用基本統(tǒng)計(jì)分析、方差分析等方法對(duì)不同條件下的駕駛員行為規(guī)律進(jìn)行分析,其中主要分析匯合過程的行為規(guī)律。最后,從匯合間距、匯合時(shí)距和避免碰撞時(shí)間(TTC,Time To Collision)三個(gè)角度進(jìn)行匯合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,并以TTC為交通安全評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),考慮駕駛員自身特性變量、場(chǎng)景變量和匯合過程變量,對(duì)匯合過程中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)建立Logistic回歸模型。在道路作業(yè)區(qū)駕駛員行為規(guī)律的研究中發(fā)現(xiàn),在匯合過程中會(huì)伴隨著車輛速度和加速度的明顯變化,而匯合過程中速度、加速度會(huì)受車流密度和匯合標(biāo)志位置的影響。不同特性的駕駛員匯合過程中駕駛行為會(huì)有所不同,駕駛員的性別和職業(yè)對(duì)匯合時(shí)間、匯合距離有顯著性影響,一般非職業(yè)駕駛員和女性駕駛員要低于職業(yè)駕駛員和男性駕駛員。同時(shí),以匯合間距和匯合時(shí)距為指標(biāo)的匯合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析得出,車流密度、匯合標(biāo)志位置對(duì)匯合過程中的最小間距和時(shí)距存在顯著性影響,車流密度越大,匯合間距越小,匯合時(shí)距越小,也就意味著發(fā)生碰撞的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越大。在匯合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型的建立中,本文將匯合過程中的最小TTC劃分為嚴(yán)重沖突、一般沖突、輕微沖突和無沖突四個(gè)等級(jí),通過建立多元有序Logistic回歸模型發(fā)現(xiàn),駕駛員性別、職業(yè)、車流密度、前車速度方差、主車速度方差、主車加速度方差和車頭間距均值對(duì)匯合過程中的危險(xiǎn)等級(jí)存在直接的顯著性影響,男性駕駛員、非職業(yè)駕駛員、高密度車流條件下匯合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大,而隨著速度方差、加速度方差的增大匯合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)增大,隨著車頭間距均值增加,匯合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)減小。匯合標(biāo)志位置雖然對(duì)匯合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)沒有直接的影響,但其對(duì)匯合過程中的車頭間距存在影響,因此其也間接地影響著匯合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of traffic infrastructure construction process, more and more road operation areas are generated by maintenance and construction work due to reconstruction and extension. The emergence of road operation areas not only greatly reduces the capacity of roads, resulting in traffic congestion. In addition, drivers are the most active and uncontrollable factors in the traffic system. In such a complex driving environment as the operation area, its behavior is prone to fluctuate greatly. Once the corresponding driving measures are not taken in time, it is very likely to cause serious traffic accidents. The study of driving behavior in road operation area is an important part of traffic safety research in operation area. This paper focuses on the convergence behavior of driver in road operation area. The simulation scene of different confluence sign position and different traffic density was established by driving simulator, and the experimental data of different sex and different profession were collected, and the basic statistical analysis was used. Variance analysis and other methods are used to analyze the behavior of drivers under different conditions, in which the behavior of convergence process is mainly analyzed. The confluence risk analysis is carried out from three angles of confluence time interval and collision avoidance time to Collision.Using TTC as the evaluation index of traffic safety, drivers' own characteristic variables, scene variables and confluence process variables are considered. The Logistic regression model is established for the risk in the course of confluence. In the study of the behavior law of the driver in the road operation area, it is found that the vehicle speed and acceleration change obviously during the confluence process, and the speed in the confluence process. The acceleration will be affected by the traffic density and the position of the confluence sign. The driving behavior of drivers with different characteristics will be different. The driver's sex and occupation have significant influence on the meeting time and distance. In general, non-professional drivers and female drivers are lower than professional drivers and male drivers. The minimum distance and time interval in the confluence process are significantly affected by the position of the confluence sign. The greater the traffic density, the smaller the confluence distance, and the smaller the confluence time interval, which means the greater the risk of collision. In this paper, the minimum TTC in confluence process is divided into four grades: serious conflict, general conflict, slight conflict and no conflict. By establishing multiple ordered Logistic regression model, it is found that driver sex, occupation, traffic density, speed variance in front car, and so on. The main vehicle speed variance, the acceleration variance and the average distance between the main vehicle and the vehicle have significant effects on the dangerous grade in the confluence process. Male drivers, non-professional drivers, and high-density vehicle flow have a greater risk of convergence, and the risk of convergence is higher than that of the male drivers, the non-professional drivers, and the high-density vehicle flow. However, with the increase of velocity variance and acceleration variance, the convergence risk will increase, and the convergence risk will decrease with the increase of the average distance between the vehicle heads. Although the convergence sign location has no direct effect on the convergence risk, However, it has an effect on the front distance in the course of confluence, so it also affects the convergence risk indirectly.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U491.25

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