發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-02-20 02:43

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 交通工程 交通擁堵 出行時(shí)長(zhǎng)不確定性 出租車GPS數(shù)據(jù) 對(duì)數(shù)正態(tài)分布　出處：《重慶交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版)》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：交通擁堵不僅延長(zhǎng)了平均出行時(shí)長(zhǎng),同樣增加了出行時(shí)長(zhǎng)不確定性。研究出行時(shí)長(zhǎng)不確定性對(duì)計(jì)算擁堵成本、幫助出行者制定出行規(guī)劃具有重要意義�；诔鲂袝r(shí)長(zhǎng)分布服從對(duì)數(shù)正態(tài)分布假設(shè),提出90%分位數(shù)出行時(shí)長(zhǎng)可表示為平均出行時(shí)長(zhǎng)和變異系數(shù)的函數(shù)。通過挖掘深圳市出租車GPS信息,發(fā)現(xiàn)變異系數(shù)的波動(dòng)在10%以內(nèi),因此對(duì)90%分位數(shù)出行時(shí)長(zhǎng)影響很小;而90%分位數(shù)出行時(shí)長(zhǎng)與平均出行時(shí)長(zhǎng)呈現(xiàn)明顯的線性關(guān)系。研究表明出行時(shí)長(zhǎng)不確定性會(huì)隨著擁堵程度增加而呈線性增長(zhǎng),該結(jié)論為計(jì)算出行時(shí)長(zhǎng)不確定性提供理論和實(shí)證支持。
[Abstract]:Traffic congestion not only prolongs the average travel time, but also increases the uncertainty of travel time. It is important to help travelers to make travel planning. Based on the assumption of logarithmic normal distribution of travel time distribution, The average travel time and variation coefficient can be expressed as a function of average travel time and coefficient of variation. By mining the GPS information of Shenzhen taxi, the variation coefficient fluctuates within 10%, so it has little effect on 90 quartile travel time. The 90 quartile travel time and the average travel time have obvious linear relationship. The study shows that the uncertainty of travel time increases linearly with the increase of congestion. This conclusion provides theoretical and empirical support for the calculation of travel time uncertainty.
【作者單位】： 北京大學(xué)深圳研究生院城市規(guī)劃與設(shè)計(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41371168) 深圳市海外高層次人才創(chuàng)新專項(xiàng)資金項(xiàng)目(KQCX20130628093909157)
【分類號(hào)】：U491

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1 魏明;孫博;;一種車速對(duì)數(shù)正態(tài)分布的車隊(duì)離散模型[J];北京工業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2013年10期

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