本文關(guān)鍵詞： 特長公路隧道 施工風險 徑向基神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡 風險評估 評估軟件　出處：《昆明理工大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國己將公路建設列為國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重點戰(zhàn)略之一。特長公路隧道的建設往往會帶來顯著的經(jīng)濟與社會效益,且具有一定的戰(zhàn)略意義。隨著我國隧道施工技術(shù)的不斷發(fā)展,特長公路隧道大量涌現(xiàn)。特長隧道意味著更加復雜的地質(zhì)條件與結(jié)構(gòu)受力狀態(tài),包含更多的風險因素,且施工難度大、建設過程風險高,施工風險問題日益突出。因此,開展特長公路隧道施工安全風險評估研究工作具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。目前在隧道施工安全風險評估中常用的評估方法如:灰色理論、模糊數(shù)學、層次分析法等。這些傳統(tǒng)評估方法雖然發(fā)展已經(jīng)較為成熟,但評估結(jié)果有一定的主觀性與局限性。在計算機技術(shù)高速發(fā)展的今天,新的隧道風險評估方法的提出勢在必行,為解決隧道施工安全問題提供了新的途徑。本文綜合運用文獻研究、現(xiàn)場調(diào)研、專家調(diào)查、統(tǒng)計分析、和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡方法針對特長公路隧道施工安全風險評估開展了相關(guān)工作。并以云南某特長公路隧道為依托,進行特長公路隧道施工安全風險評估應用,論文主要工作及成果如下:(1)通過對12種定性或定量的風險評估方法進行對比分析,選擇出了性能優(yōu)越、評估結(jié)果客觀且適用于特長公路隧道施工風險評估的徑向基神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡評估方法。并基于徑向基神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡方法提出了特長公路隧道施工的風險評估流程。(2)統(tǒng)計分析了 142起隧道施工典型事故,詳細分析了導致事故發(fā)生的影響因素,并以此建立了特長公路隧道施工安全總體風險指標體系和典型施工事故安全風險評估指標體系。(3)結(jié)合相關(guān)的隧道風險評估與管理規(guī)范指南,給出了特長公路隧道施工安全風險等級的分級標準;根據(jù)規(guī)范及文獻研究,初步劃分了特長公路隧道施工安全風險指標的評判標準。(4)建立了基于徑向基神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡的特長公路隧道施工安全風險概率評估模型及特長公路隧道施工安全風險損失模型,并以此為基礎(chǔ)開發(fā)了隧道施工安全風險評估軟件。(5)應用本文開發(fā)的隧道施工安全風險評估軟件對云南省某特長公路隧道進行施工安全風險評估,得到該隧道的施工安全風險等級為高級,該評估結(jié)果與隧道實際施工情況相符,并針對該隧道采取了風險控制措施,降低風險。
[Abstract]:In recent years, highway construction has been listed as one of the key strategies of national economic development. The construction of super-long highway tunnel will often bring significant economic and social benefits. With the continuous development of tunnel construction technology in China, a large number of extra-long highway tunnels emerge. The extra-long tunnel means more complex geological conditions and structural stress state. Contain more risk factors, and the construction is difficult, the construction process risk is high, the construction risk problem is increasingly prominent. It is of great practical significance to study the safety risk assessment of super-long highway tunnel construction. At present, the commonly used assessment methods in tunnel construction safety risk assessment are: grey theory, fuzzy mathematics. Although these traditional evaluation methods have been more mature, but the evaluation results have some subjectivity and limitations. In the rapid development of computer technology today. It is imperative to put forward a new method of tunnel risk assessment, which provides a new way to solve the tunnel construction safety problems. This paper makes comprehensive use of literature research, field investigation, expert investigation and statistical analysis. And neural network method for the safety risk assessment of ultra-long highway tunnel construction carried out related work. Based on a special long highway tunnel in Yunnan Province, the application of safety risk assessment in the construction of super-long highway tunnel is carried out. The main work and results are as follows: 1) by comparing and analyzing 12 qualitative or quantitative risk assessment methods, we select the superior performance. The evaluation results are objective and suitable for the risk assessment of ultra-long highway tunnel construction. Based on the radial basis function neural network method, the risk assessment process of ultra-long highway tunnel construction is proposed. 142 typical accidents in tunnel construction are analyzed statistically. The influencing factors of the accident are analyzed in detail. Based on this, the paper establishes the general risk index system of construction safety of super-long highway tunnel and the risk assessment index system of typical construction accidents. It combines the relevant guidelines of tunnel risk assessment and management norms. The classification standard of safety risk grade in the construction of super-long highway tunnel is given. According to the norms and literature research. The evaluation standard of safety risk index of super long highway tunnel construction is preliminarily divided. The safety risk probability evaluation model and the safety risk loss model of ultra-long highway tunnel construction are established based on radial basis function neural network. Based on this, the tunnel construction safety risk assessment software .Y5 is developed. The tunnel construction safety risk assessment software developed in this paper is used to evaluate the construction safety risk of a special long highway tunnel in Yunnan Province. It is obtained that the construction safety risk grade of the tunnel is advanced, and the evaluation results are consistent with the actual construction situation of the tunnel, and the risk control measures are taken to reduce the risk.
【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U455.1

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本文編號：1445773