本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于前景理論的出行者出行方式選擇模型研究　出處：《南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 前景理論 出行方式選擇 感知出行費(fèi)用 參照點(diǎn)異質(zhì)性 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好

【摘要】：出行選擇決策問(wèn)題是城市公共交通研究領(lǐng)域的重要內(nèi)容之一,出行方式選擇問(wèn)題則是出其中的一個(gè)重要的研究對(duì)象。目前,國(guó)內(nèi)外在研究這一問(wèn)題的主要理論是期望效用理論,該理論將出行者假設(shè)成“完全理性人”,但在實(shí)際情境下,出行者受到來(lái)自自身的如經(jīng)濟(jì)收入、出行目的等主觀因素以及來(lái)自外界的如復(fù)雜的路網(wǎng)狀況等客觀因素的影響,往往表現(xiàn)出非理性的出行選擇行為,這與期望效用理論所假定的“完全理性人”以及“追求效用最大化”相違背,而前景理論就比較貼合實(shí)際的描述了實(shí)際環(huán)境下出行者的出行心理和行為選擇的變化過(guò)程。因此,本文在前景理論的框架背景下構(gòu)建了出行者出行方式選擇模型,以更加貼近實(shí)際的反映出行者的出行選擇行為。本文首先對(duì)出行方式行為進(jìn)行了概述,在此基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)出行方式進(jìn)行了分類(lèi)并總結(jié)了各自的特點(diǎn),并從宏觀和微觀的層面分別分析了出行者出行方式選擇影響因素。通過(guò)對(duì)前景理論應(yīng)用于出行方式選擇的適用性的論證,形成了基于前景理論構(gòu)建模型的框架。在模型構(gòu)建過(guò)程中,將出行時(shí)間費(fèi)用和貨幣費(fèi)用綜合為主觀感知費(fèi)用,并引入了出行者特性心理成本的概念。在設(shè)置參照點(diǎn)時(shí)考慮到了參照點(diǎn)的異質(zhì)性以及參照點(diǎn)與出行者風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好之間的關(guān)系,根據(jù)不同類(lèi)型的出行者設(shè)置不同的參照點(diǎn)以及相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好系數(shù)。根據(jù)前景理論的相關(guān)原理,依次確定模型的價(jià)值函數(shù)、決策權(quán)重函數(shù),最終構(gòu)建了出行方式選擇模型。本文最后對(duì)一實(shí)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行實(shí)際調(diào)查,分別應(yīng)用期望效用理論和前景理論構(gòu)建的模型對(duì)調(diào)查所得的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計(jì)算,并將最終的計(jì)算結(jié)果與實(shí)際調(diào)查的結(jié)果作對(duì)比分析,結(jié)果得出基于前景理論構(gòu)建的模型的計(jì)算結(jié)果比基于期望效用理論的計(jì)算結(jié)果更加貼近實(shí)際,這也驗(yàn)證了前景理論應(yīng)用于出行方式選擇的適用性和實(shí)用性。
[Abstract]:Travel choice decision problem is one of the most important contents in the field of urban public transportation, and the choice of trip mode is one of the most important research objects. The main theory to study this problem at home and abroad is the theory of expected utility, which assumes the traveler as "completely rational person", but in the actual situation, the traveler receives his own economic income. Subjective factors such as travel purpose and external factors such as complex road network conditions often show irrational travel choice behavior. This is contrary to the assumption of "fully rational person" and "pursuing the maximization of utility" in the theory of expected utility. The foreground theory describes the changing process of travelers' travel psychology and behavior choice in the actual environment. In this paper, under the background of foreground theory, a travel mode selection model is constructed to reflect the travel choice behavior of travelers more closely to the reality. Firstly, this paper summarizes the travel mode behavior. On this basis, the travel mode is classified and their characteristics are summarized. And from the macro and micro levels, respectively analyze the factors affecting the choice of travel mode, through the perspective of the application of travel mode selection of the applicability of the argument. In the process of constructing the model, the travel time cost and currency cost are combined into subjective perceived cost. The concept of psychological cost of traveller's characteristic is introduced. The heterogeneity of reference point and the relationship between reference point and traveler's risk preference are taken into account when setting reference point. According to the different types of travelers set different reference points and the corresponding risk preference coefficient. According to the related principles of foreground theory the value function of the model and the decision weight function are determined in turn. Finally, the travel mode selection model is constructed. Finally, a practical survey of a real network is carried out, and the expected utility theory and the prospect theory are used to calculate the data obtained from the survey. The final results are compared with the results of the actual investigation. The results show that the results of the model based on the prospect theory are closer to the reality than the results based on the expected utility theory. It also verifies the applicability and practicability of foreground theory applied to travel mode selection.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U491.12

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前4條

1 劉玉印;劉偉銘;吳建偉;;基于累積前景理論的出行者路徑選擇模型[J];華南理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2010年07期

2 李林波,吳兵;交通方式選擇中心理因素影響分析[J];山東交通學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2003年03期

3 許良;高自友;;不確定條件下用戶路徑選擇行為研究述評(píng)[J];燕山大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2007年01期

4 林震,楊浩;交通信息誘導(dǎo)系統(tǒng)對(duì)出行選擇的影響分析[J];交通運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)工程與信息;2002年04期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 陳卓;城市居民對(duì)外出行方式選擇研究[D];西南交通大學(xué);2007年

2 尹毫企;基于前景理論的城市公共交通方式選擇模型研究[D];長(zhǎng)安大學(xué);2012年

，

本文編號(hào)：1431365