本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于后悔值準(zhǔn)則的需求不確定下船隊規(guī)劃　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：航運業(yè)的發(fā)展歷史悠久,同時具有國際化的特點。一直以來,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治等眾多因素影響著航運市場的發(fā)展變化。近幾十年,因為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和國際貿(mào)易的繁榮發(fā)展,國際航運業(yè)也獲得了空前的發(fā)展。同時國際航運也反作用于世界的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化以及國際貿(mào)易全球化起到了重要的推動作用,成為國家發(fā)展最重要的基礎(chǔ)性產(chǎn)業(yè)之一。各個國家不論經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度如何都對發(fā)展航運的重要性有了深刻認(rèn)識。因此,各國政府都加大了對航運業(yè)的投資力度,使世界商船隊的規(guī)模得到了急劇增長。始于2008年金融危機,對航運業(yè)造成重大打擊,在需求明顯回落的情況下由世界商船隊的過度增長導(dǎo)致的運力過剩問題愈發(fā)嚴(yán)重,世界部分商船隊也將面臨著減速、停航的命運。航運企業(yè)也受到巨大考驗。這樣控制成本,降低風(fēng)險就成為了航運企業(yè)進(jìn)行船隊規(guī)劃時,較為重要的目標(biāo)。但是未來的航運需求是不確定的,而一種預(yù)測方法很難制定出符合未來變化的預(yù)測結(jié)果,單單對一種預(yù)測方法的結(jié)果進(jìn)行規(guī)劃,很容易造成規(guī)劃結(jié)果的偏失。而船舶本身具有很高的價值,同時船隊規(guī)劃具有長期性,規(guī)劃失誤,能夠?qū)驹斐珊艽蟮慕?jīng)濟(jì)影響。本文通過多種預(yù)測方法的預(yù)測結(jié)果確立的情景集對船隊進(jìn)行最小最大后悔值模型的建立及求解,得到一個具有相對魯棒性的規(guī)劃方案,能夠有效地對未來需求不確定對船隊規(guī)劃造成的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行規(guī)避。并通過一個算例進(jìn)行驗證。通過算例進(jìn)行運算,在確定性規(guī)劃下的結(jié)果與最小最大后悔值法的結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較,從而確定最小最大后悔值法對風(fēng)險的抗性大于一般的確定性規(guī)劃。
[Abstract]:The shipping industry has a long history of development and has the characteristics of internationalization. All along, the world economy, politics and other factors affect the development of the shipping market. Because of the prosperity and development of the world economy and international trade, the international shipping industry has also achieved unprecedented development. At the same time, the international shipping industry also counteracts to the world economic development. It has played an important role in promoting the integration of the world economy and the globalization of international trade. As one of the most important basic industries for national development, every country has a profound understanding of the importance of developing shipping no matter how far its economic development is. Therefore, the governments of all countries have increased their investment in the shipping industry. The size of the world's merchant fleet has grown dramatically since the financial crisis in 2008, which has dealt a major blow to the shipping industry. The overcapacity caused by the excessive growth of the world merchant fleet is becoming more and more serious, and some of the world's merchant fleets will also be faced with deceleration. The fate of the suspension. Shipping companies are also subjected to a huge test. In this way, cost control and risk reduction has become a more important target for shipping companies in fleet planning. But the future shipping demand is uncertain. However, it is difficult for a forecasting method to make prediction results that accord with the future changes. It is easy to cause the bias of the planning results if only the results of one forecasting method are planned, and the ship itself has a high value. At the same time, fleet planning has a long-term nature, planning mistakes. This paper establishes and solves the minimum and maximum regret value model of the fleet through the scenario set established by the forecasting results of various forecasting methods. A relatively robust planning scheme is obtained, which can effectively avoid the risk of fleet planning caused by uncertainty of future demand. The results under deterministic programming are compared with the results of the minimum maximum regret value method, and it is determined that the minimum maximum regret value method is more resistant to risk than the general deterministic programming method.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U692.3

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