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  本文關鍵詞：基于乘客感知的公交出行時間可靠性研究　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 乘客感知 常規(guī)公交 候車時間可靠性 換乘時間可靠性 行程時間可靠性

【摘要】：隨著社會的發(fā)展交通壓力逐漸增大,大力發(fā)展公交成為緩解這一問題的有效途徑,為了提高常規(guī)公交車對乘客的吸引力,本文從乘客的角度,充分考慮到其在整個出行過程中受到外界以及自身因素影響情況下的心理感受。為了更好地描述公交的出行時間規(guī)律,用一個概率指標即可靠性對其進行描述,在借鑒其他學者研究成果的基礎上,提出了一個新的可靠性研究指標,從而為本文的研究提供服務。乘客整個公交出行可以分為候車、換乘、行駛?cè)齻�過程來完成,因此本文分別從這三個方面進行了基于乘客感知的可靠性研究。對于乘客感知候車時間可靠性的研究,本文首先利用調(diào)查得到的數(shù)據(jù)擬合出了乘客到達時間服從伽馬分布,推導出大量乘客的平均候車時間,可以近似作為乘客期望候車時間,乘客以往的候車經(jīng)驗用經(jīng)驗池進行存儲,并且最新一次的候車經(jīng)驗會繼續(xù)更新經(jīng)驗池,最后通過模型推導得到乘客感知候車時間主要由估計候車時間和獲得的候車時間兩部分組合而成,在乘客感知候車時間可靠性中用感知候車時間和最大容忍候車時間作為參數(shù)評價可靠性為今后出行提供借鑒。乘客感知換乘時間可靠性是本文研究的難點,通過公式的推導得到了影響乘客換乘時間的主要因素是乘客乘坐的前后兩輛公交車的到達時間,本文應用錐型流預測的方法得到了公交在路段上的行程時間,并且對交叉口的平均延誤時間進行了推導,進而得到理論上的乘客換乘時間,近似作為乘客估計換乘時間,同時還對乘客感知換乘時間的影響因素進行了分析,并且對乘客感知換乘時間可靠性進行了相應的研究。對于乘客車內(nèi)感知行程時間可靠性的研究,首先對行程時間的影響因素進行分析,得到了乘客車內(nèi)感知行程時間的主要影響因素,用層次分析法和參量分析的方法對模型中的參數(shù)進行標定,并且用70、82、84三條線路上調(diào)查的數(shù)據(jù)對模型進行了驗證,大部分相對誤差都能控制在25%以內(nèi),最后對乘客車內(nèi)感知行程時間可靠性進行計算與分析,用一個算例驗證了乘客車內(nèi)感知時間可靠性最低的達到76.7%。本文最后對三個可靠性進行組合,可以用來評價整個出行過程中的乘客感知時間可靠性。
[Abstract]:With the gradual increase of the development of the traffic pressure of the society, vigorously develop the public transportation has become an effective way to alleviate this problem, in order to improve the conventional bus attractive to passengers, the passengers from the point of view, give full consideration to the external factors and their own feelings in the case of the travel process. In order to better describe the travel time regular bus, with a probability that the description of the reliability, on the basis of the research results of other scholars, proposed a new index of reliability research, in order to provide services for this research. The whole passenger bus travel can be divided into waiting, transfer, driving three process to complete, therefore this paper from the three aspects of the research on the reliability of passengers based on perception. For the study of the passengers' waiting time reliability, this paper use check The data fitting of the passenger arrival time obeys the gamma distribution, the average waiting time are derived in a large number of passengers, passengers can be approximated as expected waiting time, waiting passengers experience with the experience of the storage pool, and the latest waiting experience will continue to update the experience pool, finally through the model derived the passengers' waiting time mainly by the estimated waiting time and the waiting time of a combination of two parts, in the passenger waiting time perception reliability perception by the waiting time and the maximum tolerated waiting time as parameters of reliability evaluation for future reference. The passengers' travel time reliability transfer is the difficulty of the research, through the formula of the main factors affecting the transfer of passengers time is the arrival time of two buses and passengers, are applying the method of conical flow prediction The bus on the road section travel time, and the average delay time of the intersection is derived, and then get the passenger transfer time theory, approximate estimation as a passenger transfer time, and factors impact of the passengers' transfer time were analyzed, and the passengers' transfer time reliability is discussed. Research on passenger car perceived travel time reliability, firstly the influencing factors of the travel time of the analysis, the main influencing factors of perceived travel time by bus, analysis method and parameters to calibrate the parameters of the model by using AHP, the model was verified by 70,82,84 and investigation on three routes most of the data, the relative error can be controlled within 25%, the last passenger car perceived travel time reliability were calculated and analyzed by a numerical A case study shows that the lowest perceived time and reliability of passenger car reaches 76.7%.. In the end, the three reliability combinations can be used to evaluate passengers' perception time reliability in the whole travel process.

【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491.17

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本文編號：1383204