發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-18 17:43

【摘要】：工業(yè)革命以后，煤炭、石油等化石能源的過度消費(fèi)使得全球溫室氣體排放量大量增加，其所帶來全球氣候變暖已經(jīng)演變?yōu)槿祟惿鐣^續(xù)向前發(fā)展的巨大挑戰(zhàn)。如何降低溫室氣體排放量應(yīng)經(jīng)成為國際會議上的最重要的議題之一，在很大程度上左右了當(dāng)今世界政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、科學(xué)技術(shù)的發(fā)展趨勢。作為當(dāng)今世界負(fù)責(zé)任的大國，中國在哥本哈根氣候大會上做出了 到2020年我國單位國民生產(chǎn)總值二氧化碳排放量比2005年下降40%-45%的目標(biāo)‖莊重承諾，隨后有將這一目標(biāo)嚴(yán)格納入到 十二·五‖規(guī)劃當(dāng)中，力求實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)又好又快發(fā)展。 本文基于能源碳足跡生態(tài)壓力的相關(guān)理論和研究，定量分析了1996-2010年間中國能源碳足跡生態(tài)壓力的變化�；贚MDI因素分解法，從能源結(jié)構(gòu)、能源強(qiáng)度、經(jīng)濟(jì)因素、森林和草地的人口壓力因素四個(gè)方面，對影響中國能源碳足跡生態(tài)壓力的影響因素進(jìn)行了分析。最后，利用脫鉤理論研究了經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與中國能源碳足跡生態(tài)壓力之間的動態(tài)關(guān)系變化。 本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)主要體現(xiàn)在以下幾個(gè)方面： （1）在聯(lián)合國政府間氣候變換專門委員會(IPCC)提供的碳足跡提供參考模型基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合現(xiàn)有關(guān)于碳足跡計(jì)算的最新研究成果與中國的歷年實(shí)際統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，，改進(jìn)了能源碳足跡計(jì)算模型，使得能源碳足跡計(jì)算結(jié)果更準(zhǔn)確。 （2）結(jié)合中國現(xiàn)有的森林和草地面積數(shù)據(jù)，研究了1996-2010年能源碳足跡生態(tài)壓力的動態(tài)變化，這對于了解這段時(shí)期內(nèi)中國能源碳足跡對生態(tài)環(huán)境產(chǎn)生的影響有著重要意義。 （3）利用LMDI法，在引入森林和草地的人口壓力因素這一新的影響因素后，研究了各因素對中國能源碳足跡生態(tài)壓力。研究結(jié)果表明該因素對EPICF的影響要比能源結(jié)構(gòu)因素的大，是不應(yīng)該被忽視的因素。 （4）將脫鉤理論應(yīng)用到能源碳足跡生態(tài)壓力的研究中，研究了能源碳足跡生態(tài)壓力與人均GDP脫鉤狀態(tài)，并用脫鉤指數(shù)來分析所處脫鉤狀態(tài)的穩(wěn)定性，這具有一定的學(xué)術(shù)研究意義和理論研究價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:After the Industrial Revolution, the excessive consumption of fossil energy, such as coal and oil, has greatly increased the global greenhouse gas emissions, and the global warming has become a great challenge for human society to continue to develop. How to reduce greenhouse gas emissions should become one of the most important issues in international conferences, which to a large extent affects the development trend of world politics, economy, science and technology. As a responsible power in the world today, China made a solemn commitment at the Copenhagen Climate Conference to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross national product by 40 to 45 percent by 2020 compared with 2005. Subsequently, this goal was strictly incorporated into the 12th Five-Year Plan to achieve sound and rapid economic development. Based on the theory and research of energy carbon footprint ecological pressure, this paper quantitatively analyzed the change of energy carbon footprint ecological pressure in China from 1996 to 2010. Based on the LMDI factorization method, the factors affecting the ecological pressure of China's energy carbon footprint were analyzed from four aspects: energy structure, energy intensity, economic factors, population pressure factors of forest and grassland. Finally, the dynamic relationship between economic development and the ecological pressure of China's energy carbon footprint is studied by using decoupling theory. The innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) based on the reference model of carbon footprint provided by (IPCC) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change, Based on the latest research results on carbon footprint calculation and the actual statistics in China, the energy carbon footprint calculation model is improved. This makes the calculation results of energy carbon footprint more accurate. (2) based on the existing data of forest and grassland area in China, the dynamic changes of ecological pressure of energy carbon footprint from 1996 to 2010 are studied. This is of great significance in understanding the impact of China's energy carbon footprint on the ecological environment during this period. (3) after introducing the population pressure factor of forests and grasslands, using LMDI method, The ecological pressure on China's energy carbon footprint was studied. The results show that the influence of this factor on EPICF is greater than that of energy structure, which should not be ignored. (4) the decoupling theory is applied to the study of ecological pressure of energy carbon footprint. The energy carbon footprint ecological pressure and the decoupling state of GDP per capita were studied, and the stability of the decoupling state was analyzed by using the decoupling index, which has certain academic significance and theoretical research value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.2;X24

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