本文選題：綜合承載力 + 適度人口��； 參考：《地球信息科學(xué)學(xué)報》2017年11期

【摘要】：北京作為中國的政治、經(jīng)濟和文化中心,資源短缺、交通擁堵和生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化等問題日益嚴重,確定其適度人口規(guī)模,對引導(dǎo)區(qū)域人口合理流動和環(huán)境保護具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。本文基于綜合承載力,對已有的適度人口模型進行了改進:利用主成分分析法和熵權(quán)法確定生態(tài)、經(jīng)濟和資源承載系統(tǒng)的權(quán)重;經(jīng)濟承載人口測算指標不局限于地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)這一單一指標;資源承載人口綜合考慮了土地資源和水資源承載力。本文通過綜合分析2004-2014年北京各項承載人口和適度人口,結(jié)果表明:(1)生態(tài)承載人口規(guī)模在波動中有增長的趨勢,由717.38萬人上升至753.14萬人,一直處于人口超載狀態(tài);(2)經(jīng)濟承載人口一直處于富余狀態(tài),但規(guī)模由5297.18萬人減少至3802.06萬人。第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值所承載的人口對經(jīng)濟承載人口的貢獻最大,在2014年達到65.15%;(3)資源承載人口規(guī)模處于波動狀態(tài),2014年為139.61萬人,超載率逐年增加。土地資源承載力對資源承載人口的貢獻大于水資源,2014年貢獻率達79.91%;(4)北京市適度人口規(guī)模從2004年的2031.15萬人減少至2014年的1550.67萬人,2008年開始出現(xiàn)人口赤字,且人口超載率逐年攀升。經(jīng)濟承載人口對適度人口貢獻率維持在80%以上,生態(tài)和資源承載人口的貢獻率平均值分別為14%和3%。人口資源壓力指數(shù)在波動中有上升的趨勢,從2004年的9.45上升至2014年的15.41,資源約束已經(jīng)成為阻礙城市發(fā)展的主要因素,經(jīng)濟承載力是維持適度人口規(guī)模緩慢減小的主要動力。
[Abstract]:As the political, economic and cultural center of China, Beijing is facing increasingly serious problems such as shortage of resources, traffic congestion and deterioration of the ecological environment. It is of practical significance to guide the rational flow of regional population and environmental protection. Based on the comprehensive bearing capacity, this paper improves the existing moderate population model: using principal component analysis and entropy weight method to determine the weight of ecological, economic and resource bearing system; The index of economic bearing population is not limited to the single index of GDP, and the carrying capacity of land resources and water resources is considered comprehensively. Through the comprehensive analysis of the carrying population and the moderate population in Beijing from 2004 to 2014, the results show that the population size of the ecological bearing population has an increasing trend in fluctuation, from 7.1738 million to 7.5314 million. The economy has always been in surplus, but the size of the population has been reduced from 52.9718 million to 38.0206 million. The third industry's output value has the biggest contribution to the economic carrying population, reaching 65.15% in 2014. The population size of the third industry is fluctuating. In 2014, it is 1.3961 million people, and the overload rate is increasing year by year. The contribution of land resources carrying capacity to the population carrying resources is greater than that of water resources, and the contribution rate in 2014 reached 79.91%. The moderate population size of Beijing decreased from 20.3115 million in 2004 to 15.5067 million in 2014. The population deficit began to appear in 2008, and the population overload rate increased year by year. The contribution rate of economic carrying population to moderate population is above 80%, and the average contribution rate of ecological and resource bearing population is 14% and 3% respectively. The population resource pressure index increased from 9.45 in 2004 to 15.41 in 2014. The resource constraint has become the main factor hindering urban development, and the economic carrying capacity is the main driving force to maintain the moderate population size decreasing slowly.
【作者單位】： 中國科學(xué)院地理科學(xué)與資源研究所資源與環(huán)境信息系統(tǒng)國家重點實驗室;西華師范大學(xué)國土資源學(xué)院;中國環(huán)境科學(xué)研究院生態(tài)環(huán)境研究所;中國環(huán)境科學(xué)研究院環(huán)境基準與風(fēng)險評估國家重點實驗室;西北大學(xué)城市與環(huán)境學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(U1503184、41201097) “中國科學(xué)院大學(xué)生創(chuàng)新實踐訓(xùn)練計劃”項目(201717001991)
【分類號】：C922

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