本文選題：綜合承載力 + 適度人口��； 參考：《地球信息科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年11期

【摘要】：北京作為中國(guó)的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)和文化中心,資源短缺、交通擁堵和生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化等問(wèn)題日益嚴(yán)重,確定其適度人口規(guī)模,對(duì)引導(dǎo)區(qū)域人口合理流動(dòng)和環(huán)境保護(hù)具有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文基于綜合承載力,對(duì)已有的適度人口模型進(jìn)行了改進(jìn):利用主成分分析法和熵權(quán)法確定生態(tài)、經(jīng)濟(jì)和資源承載系統(tǒng)的權(quán)重;經(jīng)濟(jì)承載人口測(cè)算指標(biāo)不局限于地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)這一單一指標(biāo);資源承載人口綜合考慮了土地資源和水資源承載力。本文通過(guò)綜合分析2004-2014年北京各項(xiàng)承載人口和適度人口,結(jié)果表明:(1)生態(tài)承載人口規(guī)模在波動(dòng)中有增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì),由717.38萬(wàn)人上升至753.14萬(wàn)人,一直處于人口超載狀態(tài);(2)經(jīng)濟(jì)承載人口一直處于富余狀態(tài),但規(guī)模由5297.18萬(wàn)人減少至3802.06萬(wàn)人。第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值所承載的人口對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)承載人口的貢獻(xiàn)最大,在2014年達(dá)到65.15%;(3)資源承載人口規(guī)模處于波動(dòng)狀態(tài),2014年為139.61萬(wàn)人,超載率逐年增加。土地資源承載力對(duì)資源承載人口的貢獻(xiàn)大于水資源,2014年貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)79.91%;(4)北京市適度人口規(guī)模從2004年的2031.15萬(wàn)人減少至2014年的1550.67萬(wàn)人,2008年開始出現(xiàn)人口赤字,且人口超載率逐年攀升。經(jīng)濟(jì)承載人口對(duì)適度人口貢獻(xiàn)率維持在80%以上,生態(tài)和資源承載人口的貢獻(xiàn)率平均值分別為14%和3%。人口資源壓力指數(shù)在波動(dòng)中有上升的趨勢(shì),從2004年的9.45上升至2014年的15.41,資源約束已經(jīng)成為阻礙城市發(fā)展的主要因素,經(jīng)濟(jì)承載力是維持適度人口規(guī)模緩慢減小的主要?jiǎng)恿Α?br/>[Abstract]:As the political, economic and cultural center of China, Beijing is facing increasingly serious problems such as shortage of resources, traffic congestion and deterioration of the ecological environment. It is of practical significance to guide the rational flow of regional population and environmental protection. Based on the comprehensive bearing capacity, this paper improves the existing moderate population model: using principal component analysis and entropy weight method to determine the weight of ecological, economic and resource bearing system; The index of economic bearing population is not limited to the single index of GDP, and the carrying capacity of land resources and water resources is considered comprehensively. Through the comprehensive analysis of the carrying population and the moderate population in Beijing from 2004 to 2014, the results show that the population size of the ecological bearing population has an increasing trend in fluctuation, from 7.1738 million to 7.5314 million. The economy has always been in surplus, but the size of the population has been reduced from 52.9718 million to 38.0206 million. The third industry's output value has the biggest contribution to the economic carrying population, reaching 65.15% in 2014. The population size of the third industry is fluctuating. In 2014, it is 1.3961 million people, and the overload rate is increasing year by year. The contribution of land resources carrying capacity to the population carrying resources is greater than that of water resources, and the contribution rate in 2014 reached 79.91%. The moderate population size of Beijing decreased from 20.3115 million in 2004 to 15.5067 million in 2014. The population deficit began to appear in 2008, and the population overload rate increased year by year. The contribution rate of economic carrying population to moderate population is above 80%, and the average contribution rate of ecological and resource bearing population is 14% and 3% respectively. The population resource pressure index increased from 9.45 in 2004 to 15.41 in 2014. The resource constraint has become the main factor hindering urban development, and the economic carrying capacity is the main driving force to maintain the moderate population size decreasing slowly.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)科學(xué)院地理科學(xué)與資源研究所資源與環(huán)境信息系統(tǒng)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;西華師范大學(xué)國(guó)土資源學(xué)院;中國(guó)環(huán)境科學(xué)研究院生態(tài)環(huán)境研究所;中國(guó)環(huán)境科學(xué)研究院環(huán)境基準(zhǔn)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;西北大學(xué)城市與環(huán)境學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(U1503184、41201097) “中國(guó)科學(xué)院大學(xué)生創(chuàng)新實(shí)踐訓(xùn)練計(jì)劃”項(xiàng)目(201717001991)
【分類號(hào)】：C922

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