本文關鍵詞： WTO 中俄 貿易結構 引力模型　出處：《湖南大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：中國和俄羅斯是世界上最大的兩個發(fā)展中國家，，同時又是毗鄰的友好聯(lián)邦，兩國的政治經濟交往由來已久。從1991年蘇聯(lián)解體至今，雖然兩國貿易一波三折，但總體呈上升趨勢。2012年8月22日，俄羅斯正式被納入世界貿易組織框架，這將為兩國的貿易發(fā)展帶來新的契機�；诖�，本文首先分析了中俄雙邊貿易發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，再運用國際貿易標準分類法和HS編碼分類法對兩國貿易結構進行具體分析，得出結論兩國商品貿易結構雖然具有較強互補性，俄羅斯對中國出口以初級產品為主，中國對俄羅斯出口以工業(yè)制成品為主。但是俄羅斯對中國出口的能源類產品受世界市場價格波動大，中國對俄羅斯出口的工業(yè)制成品具有很強的可替代性。 影響兩國貿易結構的因素有很多，如自然條件、社會經濟條件和制度條件等，而俄羅斯加入WTO后貿易制度的改變也將促進中俄貿易結構的改善。以這些影響因素為基礎，本文選取1992年-2012年的數據為樣本，以原有貿易引力模型為基礎，選擇變量兩國人均GDP、兩國關稅稅率、FDI和APEC，分別回歸中俄雙邊貿易的模型、初級產品在雙邊貿易中所占比重模型和工業(yè)制成品在雙邊貿易中所占比重模型，檢驗這些變量對雙邊貿易及貿易結構的影響程度，并根據實證結果預測俄羅斯入世后對中俄貿易結構的影響。 文章最后根據實證結果提出相應的政策建議：(1)在WTO框架下規(guī)范兩國貿易制度；(2)發(fā)揮要素稟賦優(yōu)勢，重視技術進步，改善貿易結構；(3)改善投資環(huán)境，鼓勵兩國相互投資；(4)重視區(qū)域經濟合作重要性，鼓勵建設中俄自由貿易區(qū)；(5)提升中國產品品牌意識，增強中國商品的國際競爭力。
[Abstract]:China and Russia are the two largest developing countries in the world, and they are also adjacent friendly federations. The political and economic exchanges between the two countries have a long history, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. In August 22nd 2012, Russia was formally incorporated into the framework of the World Trade Organization, which will bring a new opportunity for the development of trade between the two countries. This paper first analyzes the development of bilateral trade between China and Russia, and then uses the Standard Classification of International Trade and HS Code Classification to analyze the trade structure of the two countries. It is concluded that although the commodity trade structure of the two countries is highly complementary, the primary products are the main export of Russia to China. China's exports to Russia are dominated by manufactured goods, but Russian energy exports to China are highly volatile in the world market, and Chinese manufactured goods to Russia are highly substitutable. There are many factors that affect the trade structure of the two countries, such as natural conditions, social and economic conditions and institutional conditions. The change of trade system after Russia's entry into WTO will also promote the improvement of Sino-Russian trade structure. Based on these factors, this paper selects the data from 1992 to 2012 as the sample. Based on the original trade gravity model, this paper chooses the variables of GDPper capita, tariff rate of two countries FDI and APECrespectively to return to the model of bilateral trade between China and Russia. The primary products in bilateral trade model and manufactured goods in bilateral trade model to test the impact of these variables on bilateral trade and trade structure. According to the empirical results, the impact of Russia's WTO entry on the trade structure of China and Russia is predicted. Finally, according to the empirical results, the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations: 1) standardizing the trade system of the two countries under the framework of WTO; (2) give full play to the advantages of factor endowment, attach importance to technological progress and improve the trade structure; Improve the investment environment and encourage mutual investment between the two countries; (4) attach importance to the importance of regional economic cooperation and encourage the establishment of a Sino-Russian free trade zone; To enhance the brand awareness of Chinese products and enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese goods.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.7;F755.12

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