本文關(guān)鍵詞： WTO 中俄 貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu) 引力模型　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)和俄羅斯是世界上最大的兩個(gè)發(fā)展中國(guó)家，，同時(shí)又是毗鄰的友好聯(lián)邦，兩國(guó)的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)交往由來(lái)已久。從1991年蘇聯(lián)解體至今，雖然兩國(guó)貿(mào)易一波三折，但總體呈上升趨勢(shì)。2012年8月22日，俄羅斯正式被納入世界貿(mào)易組織框架，這將為兩國(guó)的貿(mào)易發(fā)展帶來(lái)新的契機(jī)�；诖�，本文首先分析了中俄雙邊貿(mào)易發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，再運(yùn)用國(guó)際貿(mào)易標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分類(lèi)法和HS編碼分類(lèi)法對(duì)兩國(guó)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行具體分析，得出結(jié)論兩國(guó)商品貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)雖然具有較強(qiáng)互補(bǔ)性，俄羅斯對(duì)中國(guó)出口以初級(jí)產(chǎn)品為主，中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯出口以工業(yè)制成品為主。但是俄羅斯對(duì)中國(guó)出口的能源類(lèi)產(chǎn)品受世界市場(chǎng)價(jià)格波動(dòng)大，中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯出口的工業(yè)制成品具有很強(qiáng)的可替代性。 影響兩國(guó)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的因素有很多，如自然條件、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)條件和制度條件等，而俄羅斯加入WTO后貿(mào)易制度的改變也將促進(jìn)中俄貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的改善。以這些影響因素為基礎(chǔ)，本文選取1992年-2012年的數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，以原有貿(mào)易引力模型為基礎(chǔ)，選擇變量?jī)蓢?guó)人均GDP、兩國(guó)關(guān)稅稅率、FDI和APEC，分別回歸中俄雙邊貿(mào)易的模型、初級(jí)產(chǎn)品在雙邊貿(mào)易中所占比重模型和工業(yè)制成品在雙邊貿(mào)易中所占比重模型，檢驗(yàn)這些變量對(duì)雙邊貿(mào)易及貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的影響程度，并根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果預(yù)測(cè)俄羅斯入世后對(duì)中俄貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。 文章最后根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的政策建議：(1)在WTO框架下規(guī)范兩國(guó)貿(mào)易制度；(2)發(fā)揮要素稟賦優(yōu)勢(shì)，重視技術(shù)進(jìn)步，改善貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)；(3)改善投資環(huán)境，鼓勵(lì)兩國(guó)相互投資；(4)重視區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)合作重要性，鼓勵(lì)建設(shè)中俄自由貿(mào)易區(qū)；(5)提升中國(guó)產(chǎn)品品牌意識(shí)，增強(qiáng)中國(guó)商品的國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。
[Abstract]:China and Russia are the two largest developing countries in the world, and they are also adjacent friendly federations. The political and economic exchanges between the two countries have a long history, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. In August 22nd 2012, Russia was formally incorporated into the framework of the World Trade Organization, which will bring a new opportunity for the development of trade between the two countries. This paper first analyzes the development of bilateral trade between China and Russia, and then uses the Standard Classification of International Trade and HS Code Classification to analyze the trade structure of the two countries. It is concluded that although the commodity trade structure of the two countries is highly complementary, the primary products are the main export of Russia to China. China's exports to Russia are dominated by manufactured goods, but Russian energy exports to China are highly volatile in the world market, and Chinese manufactured goods to Russia are highly substitutable. There are many factors that affect the trade structure of the two countries, such as natural conditions, social and economic conditions and institutional conditions. The change of trade system after Russia's entry into WTO will also promote the improvement of Sino-Russian trade structure. Based on these factors, this paper selects the data from 1992 to 2012 as the sample. Based on the original trade gravity model, this paper chooses the variables of GDPper capita, tariff rate of two countries FDI and APECrespectively to return to the model of bilateral trade between China and Russia. The primary products in bilateral trade model and manufactured goods in bilateral trade model to test the impact of these variables on bilateral trade and trade structure. According to the empirical results, the impact of Russia's WTO entry on the trade structure of China and Russia is predicted. Finally, according to the empirical results, the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations: 1) standardizing the trade system of the two countries under the framework of WTO; (2) give full play to the advantages of factor endowment, attach importance to technological progress and improve the trade structure; Improve the investment environment and encourage mutual investment between the two countries; (4) attach importance to the importance of regional economic cooperation and encourage the establishment of a Sino-Russian free trade zone; To enhance the brand awareness of Chinese products and enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese goods.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F752.7;F755.12

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