【摘要】：中國股票市場的劇烈波動以及政策預(yù)期的不確定性無疑加大了國家相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理部門調(diào)控股票市場的難度，降低了國家利用經(jīng)濟(jì)手段調(diào)節(jié)證券市場的能力和效率。因此，系統(tǒng)深入地研究政府調(diào)控政策變化對中國股票市場的影響對于加強中國股票市場的管理和控制、改善政府對股票市場的調(diào)控和監(jiān)管效率，進(jìn)而保障中國股票市場健康、穩(wěn)定、持續(xù)發(fā)展具有非常重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文通過對相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)和理論的研究，采用描述性統(tǒng)計和事件研究法對2012、2013年農(nóng)業(yè)政策發(fā)布以后短期內(nèi)相關(guān)股票價格的變動進(jìn)行了實證研究。研究表明：政策發(fā)布后，相關(guān)股票價格顯著上漲，說明短期內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)政策的發(fā)布對農(nóng)業(yè)股股票價格波動都有積極影響，都能不同程度的影響相關(guān)股票價格。但是兩次事件的影響效果不一，影響幅度不斷減小，尤其是深證農(nóng)業(yè)指數(shù)相差較大，這說明市場可能對于農(nóng)業(yè)政策的發(fā)布具有了一定的免疫性，農(nóng)業(yè)政策的發(fā)布不能再像去年那樣強烈刺激農(nóng)業(yè)股票在短期內(nèi)的價格增長。 最后，，在前文理論研究和實證研究的基礎(chǔ)上，指出相關(guān)股票價格在農(nóng)業(yè)政策發(fā)布以后出現(xiàn)該現(xiàn)象的主要原因:市場有效性不足、政策制定不夠謹(jǐn)慎、尚未建立適當(dāng)?shù)念A(yù)期管理和輿論管理機制。據(jù)此提出以下政策建議：逐步提高股票市場有效性；完善政策決策、披露與執(zhí)行程序；引導(dǎo)投資者理性投資；加大對農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的支持力度。
[Abstract]:The sharp fluctuation of China's stock market and the uncertainty of policy expectations undoubtedly increase the difficulty of regulating the stock market by the relevant economic management departments of the country, and reduce the ability and efficiency of the state to regulate the stock market by economic means. Therefore, a systematic and in-depth study of the impact of changes in government regulation and control policies on China's stock market will strengthen the management and control of China's stock market, improve the efficiency of government regulation and supervision of the stock market, and thus ensure the health of China's stock market. Stable, sustainable development has very important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the research of relevant literature and theory, this paper makes an empirical study on the changes of stock prices in the short term after the agricultural policy was issued in 2012 and 2013 by using descriptive statistics and event research methods. The results show that the relative stock price increases significantly after the policy is issued, which indicates that the agricultural policy has a positive effect on the volatility of agricultural stock price in the short term, and can affect the related stock price to varying degrees. However, the effects of the two events are different, and the impact range is constantly decreasing, especially the difference in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's agricultural index, which indicates that the market may have a certain degree of immunity to the promulgation of agricultural policies. The announcement of agricultural policy can no longer strongly stimulate short-term price growth in agricultural stocks as it did last year. Finally, on the basis of the previous theoretical and empirical studies, the paper points out the main reasons for the phenomenon after the agricultural policy is issued: insufficient market effectiveness, inadequate policy making, There has not been a proper mechanism for anticipatory management and public opinion management. Based on this, the author puts forward the following policy suggestions: gradually improving the effectiveness of the stock market; perfecting policy decisions, disclosure and execution procedures; guiding investors to invest rationally; and increasing the support for agricultural listed companies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F320;F832.51;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 賈煒;蔡維;樊瑛;;一個關(guān)于中國股票市場和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)相互關(guān)系的實證分析[J];北京師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2007年01期

2 姚濤;楊欣彥;;證券交易印花稅調(diào)整對股價波動性的效應(yīng)評估[J];財經(jīng)科學(xué);2008年11期

3 于長秋;股票價格波動與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動[J];遼寧財專學(xué)報;2003年02期

4 謝赤,吳丹;論股票市場對擴(kuò)張性貨幣政策效力的影響及相應(yīng)對策[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2002年04期

5 楊倩,楊慶雄,肖俐;2004年國家宏觀調(diào)控政策與股市走勢的聯(lián)動性分析[J];華東經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2004年06期

6 許均華,李啟亞;宏觀政策對我國股市影響的實證研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2001年09期

7 易綱,王召;貨幣政策與金融資產(chǎn)價格[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2002年03期

8 孫華妤,馬躍;中國貨幣政策與股票市場的關(guān)系[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2003年07期

9 陸蓉,徐龍炳;“牛市”和“熊市”對信息的不平衡性反應(yīng)研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2004年03期

10 宋逢明,江婕;中國股票市場波動性特性的實證研究[J];金融研究;2003年04期

本文編號：2233693