異常派現(xiàn)對盈余質量的信號作用研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-13 08:49
【摘要】：股利政策作為公司財務理論三大支柱之一,歷來都是人們關注的焦點。在信息不對稱的情況下,投資者希望從公司的股利分配政策中探究公司的未來發(fā)展前景,上市公司的管理層也希望能通過合理的股利政策向投資者傳達經(jīng)營業(yè)績良好的信號作用,因此股利政策的信息內涵被人們廣泛關注。 根據(jù)信號理論,管理層在預期未來盈余顯著增加的情況下才會提高現(xiàn)金股利支付率的大小,那么中國證券市場上上市公司異常派現(xiàn)行為是否信號傳遞功能,是否能夠反映不同企業(yè)的盈余持久性,廣大投資者是否能夠根據(jù)企業(yè)的異常派現(xiàn)動機來判斷公司未來的發(fā)展前景,這些就是本論文所探討異常派現(xiàn)行為對盈余持久性信號傳遞作用研究的意義所在 本文研究了各種股利政策下,上市公司未來兩年的盈余質量的高低,以此來探究各種股利分配形式是否對公司的盈余質量具有信號傳遞作用。在此基礎上文章進一步探討了異常派現(xiàn)行為對上市公司的盈余質量是否具有傳遞作用以及股權集中度的提高對這種信號傳遞作用是否會產生一定的影響。由此,本文提出三個假設：一、上市公司派發(fā)現(xiàn)金股利具有信號傳遞作用,派發(fā)了現(xiàn)金股利的上市公司盈余質量更高；二、異常派現(xiàn)對盈余質量具有信號傳遞作用；三、股權集中度會削弱異常派現(xiàn)行為對盈余質量的信號傳遞作用。 通過對上市公司2007-2009年間滬深A股數(shù)據(jù)的實證檢驗,結果分析表明：一,現(xiàn)金股利與盈余持久性的交乘項系數(shù)顯著為正,說明派發(fā)現(xiàn)金股利上市公司的盈余持久性更強,盈余質量更高；二,上市公司盈余持久性與異常派現(xiàn)額的交乘項系數(shù)顯著為正,說明盈余持久性與異常派現(xiàn)行為正相關,異常派現(xiàn)行為對盈余質量具有信號傳遞作用；三,隨著大股東持股比例的增強,異常派現(xiàn)與盈余持久性、第一大股東持股比例的交乘項系數(shù)顯著為負,說明了股權集中度會削弱異常派現(xiàn)對盈余持久性的信號作用。
[Abstract]:As one of the three pillars of corporate finance theory, dividend policy has always been the focus of attention. In the case of asymmetric information, investors hope to explore the future development prospects of the company from the dividend distribution policy of the company. The management of listed companies also hopes to convey the signal of good operating performance to investors through reasonable dividend policy, so the information connotation of dividend policy is widely concerned by people. According to the signal theory, the management will increase the cash dividend payout rate only when the future earnings are expected to increase significantly in the future. So, is the abnormal cash dividend behavior of listed companies in China's securities market a signal transmission function? Whether it can reflect the persistence of earnings of different enterprises, whether the majority of investors can judge the future development prospects of companies according to the abnormal cash payout motives of the enterprises, These are the significance of the study on the effect of abnormal payout behavior on earnings persistent signal transmission in this paper. This paper studies the earnings quality of listed companies in the next two years under various dividend policies. In order to explore whether various forms of dividend distribution on the earnings quality of the company signal transmission. On this basis, the paper further discusses whether the abnormal payout behavior has the transmission effect on the earnings quality of listed companies and whether the increase of equity concentration will have a certain influence on the signaling effect. Therefore, this paper puts forward three hypotheses: first, cash dividend distribution by listed companies has signalling effect, and the earnings quality of listed companies that have distributed cash dividends is higher; second, abnormal cash dividend has signalling effect on earnings quality; third, Equity concentration will weaken the signaling effect of abnormal payout behavior on earnings quality. Through the empirical test of the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares from 2007 to 2009, the results show that: first, the multiplicative coefficient of the persistence of cash dividend and earnings is significantly positive, which indicates that the earnings of listed companies with cash dividends are more persistent than those of listed companies. The earnings quality is higher; second, the coefficient of earnings persistence and abnormal payout of listed companies is significantly positive, indicating that earnings persistence is positively related to abnormal cash payout behavior, and abnormal dividend behavior has a signalling effect on earnings quality; third, With the increase of the shareholding ratio of large shareholders, abnormal payout and earnings persistence, the cross multiplicative coefficient of the first largest shareholder's shareholding ratio is significantly negative, which indicates that the ownership concentration will weaken the signal effect of abnormal dividend on earnings persistence.
【學位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F832.51
本文編號：2180473
[Abstract]:As one of the three pillars of corporate finance theory, dividend policy has always been the focus of attention. In the case of asymmetric information, investors hope to explore the future development prospects of the company from the dividend distribution policy of the company. The management of listed companies also hopes to convey the signal of good operating performance to investors through reasonable dividend policy, so the information connotation of dividend policy is widely concerned by people. According to the signal theory, the management will increase the cash dividend payout rate only when the future earnings are expected to increase significantly in the future. So, is the abnormal cash dividend behavior of listed companies in China's securities market a signal transmission function? Whether it can reflect the persistence of earnings of different enterprises, whether the majority of investors can judge the future development prospects of companies according to the abnormal cash payout motives of the enterprises, These are the significance of the study on the effect of abnormal payout behavior on earnings persistent signal transmission in this paper. This paper studies the earnings quality of listed companies in the next two years under various dividend policies. In order to explore whether various forms of dividend distribution on the earnings quality of the company signal transmission. On this basis, the paper further discusses whether the abnormal payout behavior has the transmission effect on the earnings quality of listed companies and whether the increase of equity concentration will have a certain influence on the signaling effect. Therefore, this paper puts forward three hypotheses: first, cash dividend distribution by listed companies has signalling effect, and the earnings quality of listed companies that have distributed cash dividends is higher; second, abnormal cash dividend has signalling effect on earnings quality; third, Equity concentration will weaken the signaling effect of abnormal payout behavior on earnings quality. Through the empirical test of the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares from 2007 to 2009, the results show that: first, the multiplicative coefficient of the persistence of cash dividend and earnings is significantly positive, which indicates that the earnings of listed companies with cash dividends are more persistent than those of listed companies. The earnings quality is higher; second, the coefficient of earnings persistence and abnormal payout of listed companies is significantly positive, indicating that earnings persistence is positively related to abnormal cash payout behavior, and abnormal dividend behavior has a signalling effect on earnings quality; third, With the increase of the shareholding ratio of large shareholders, abnormal payout and earnings persistence, the cross multiplicative coefficient of the first largest shareholder's shareholding ratio is significantly negative, which indicates that the ownership concentration will weaken the signal effect of abnormal dividend on earnings persistence.
【學位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F832.51
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