【摘要】：本文首先對國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行梳理，并對相關(guān)理論與方法進(jìn)行綜述，分別闡述通貨膨脹理論和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格理論，對通貨膨脹定義和分類進(jìn)行梳理，討論了我國房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格機(jī)制形成模式和美國房地產(chǎn)特點(diǎn)比較。然后分別探討我國通貨膨脹和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格現(xiàn)狀特點(diǎn)，發(fā)現(xiàn)從1991年-2011年的20年里我國通貨膨脹和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)存在明顯的階段性特點(diǎn)。比較嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹發(fā)生在第一個(gè)階段和第三個(gè)階段。這兩次比較嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹又有明顯的不同，，第一個(gè)階段（1991-1997)通貨膨脹的主要原因是制度和體制調(diào)整所導(dǎo)致的需求拉動(dòng)型和成本推動(dòng)混合作用，第三個(gè)階段（2007-2008)通貨膨脹的主要原因是生產(chǎn)資料和消費(fèi)資料的快速上漲以及國外資本輸入。房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的兩次快速上漲發(fā)生在第二階段(1991-1998)和第四階段（2003-2009)。 從我國通貨膨脹和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格時(shí)序圖走勢可以粗略得到通貨膨脹和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格有一定的相關(guān)關(guān)系。本文重點(diǎn)用VAR模型分析我國通貨膨脹和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系，通過定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合的方法，探索它們之間的因果關(guān)系。首先對單個(gè)變量時(shí)間序列進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)，檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明序列滯后二階平穩(wěn)。然后確認(rèn)他們之間具有協(xié)整關(guān)系，之后建立向量自回歸（VAR)模型（以下簡稱VAR模型）。VAR模型可以用來預(yù)測相關(guān)聯(lián)的經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)間序列系統(tǒng)，并分析隨機(jī)擾動(dòng)對變量系統(tǒng)的動(dòng)態(tài)沖擊，進(jìn)一步解釋經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊對經(jīng)濟(jì)變量所產(chǎn)生的影響。模型建立后，接著利用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解的方法來分析各個(gè)變量沖擊后的反應(yīng)。 結(jié)果表明，居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格受外部條件的某一沖擊后，經(jīng)市場傳遞給房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)，給房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)帶來同向的沖擊，而且這一沖擊具有顯著地促進(jìn)和較長的持續(xù)效應(yīng)。房地產(chǎn)銷售價(jià)格的某一沖擊也會(huì)給通貨膨脹帶來同向影響，即房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的增加會(huì)在24個(gè)月后對通貨膨脹產(chǎn)生穩(wěn)定的拉動(dòng)作用，但是可以看出，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)對于通貨膨脹的影響較小。方差分解結(jié)果表明通貨膨脹對房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)的方差貢獻(xiàn)度比較大，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對通貨膨脹變動(dòng)的方差貢獻(xiàn)度較小�；谘芯拷Y(jié)果，要想控制房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格我們可以從控制通貨膨脹的角度來采取相應(yīng)措施，而控制通貨膨脹不能過多依賴房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的調(diào)控，還需要從其他方面加以調(diào)整。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the current research situation at home and abroad is first reviewed, and the relevant theories and methods are summarized, respectively, inflation theory and real estate price theory, the definition and classification of inflation are combed. This paper discusses the formation mode of real estate price mechanism in China and the comparison of the characteristics of American real estate. Then it discusses the characteristics of inflation and real estate price in China, and finds out that there are obvious stage characteristics of inflation and real estate price changes in China during the 20 years from 1991 to 2011. More severe inflation occurs in the first and third stages. The first stage (1991-1997) of inflation was mainly due to the combination of demand-driven and cost-driven effects resulting from institutional and institutional adjustments. The third stage (2007-2008) of inflation is mainly due to the rapid increase in the means of production and consumption, as well as foreign capital imports. Two rapid increases in real estate prices took place in the second (1991-1998) and fourth (2003-2009) phases. From the trend of China's inflation and real estate price time series diagram, it can be roughly concluded that inflation and real estate price have certain correlation. In this paper, VAR model is used to analyze the dynamic relationship between inflation and real estate price in China, and the causality between inflation and real estate price is explored through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. First, the time series of a single variable is tested by stationary test, and the results show that the sequence lags second order stationary. Then it is confirmed that there is a cointegration relationship between them. Then the vector autoregressive (VAR) model (hereinafter referred to as VAR model). The VAR model can be used to predict the associated economic time series system and to analyze the dynamic impact of random disturbances on the variable system. Further explain the impact of economic shocks on economic variables. After the model is established, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the shock response of each variable. The results show that the consumer price of the residents is impacted by some external conditions, which is transmitted to the real estate industry through the market, and brings the same impact to the real estate industry, and this impact has a significant promotion and a longer lasting effect. A certain impact on real estate sales prices will also have the same effect on inflation, that is, the increase in real estate prices will have a steady pull on inflation after 24 months, but you can see that, Changes in real estate prices have less impact on inflation. The variance decomposition results show that the variance contribution of inflation to real estate price is relatively large, and the variance contribution of real estate price to inflation is small. Based on the research results, we can take corresponding measures to control real estate prices from the angle of controlling inflation, and the control of inflation should not rely too much on the control of real estate prices, but also need to be adjusted from other aspects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F822.5;F224

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