【摘要】：全面深入的認(rèn)識農(nóng)村信貸系統(tǒng)是科學(xué)進行農(nóng)村金融改革的前提，而雖然目前學(xué)界已經(jīng)在社會學(xué)、經(jīng)濟學(xué)等方面做了大量研究但對如何深入、系統(tǒng)、直觀認(rèn)識農(nóng)村信貸體系這一社會經(jīng)濟復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)仍然缺乏更為有效的方法和思路。復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)作為一種有效的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)研究方法在科技、經(jīng)濟、社會等方面都得到了廣泛的運用，為解決這一問題提供了新的條件。 本文從農(nóng)村借貸系統(tǒng)出發(fā)將農(nóng)村借貸系統(tǒng)抽象為復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)的形式，首先從農(nóng)戶借貸產(chǎn)生的基本影響因素出發(fā)分析借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的節(jié)點及邊的特征，得到網(wǎng)絡(luò)建模的基本建設(shè)；其次，運用R軟件等統(tǒng)計建模工具對農(nóng)戶信貸系統(tǒng)進行復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)建模，并計算其基本的統(tǒng)計物理指標(biāo)，得出農(nóng)村借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)性質(zhì)；最后，對農(nóng)戶主體的變化和借貸系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險進行假設(shè)分析了借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)對于主體改進的效力以及網(wǎng)絡(luò)系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性。 文章得出的主要結(jié)論有： （1）通過計量分析得出影響農(nóng)戶借貸產(chǎn)生的核心因素為經(jīng)濟資本（收入）因素和社會資本因素，其中社會資本因素的影響明顯大于經(jīng)濟資本因素。 （2）在引入社會資本損失和努力效用的前提下，利用博弈論的方法分析了農(nóng)戶借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)鏈接的產(chǎn)生機制，得出了民間借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)更有利于產(chǎn)生農(nóng)戶借貸的結(jié)論。 （3）在經(jīng)濟資本和社會資本兩個因素的基本假設(shè)下從民間借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)和正規(guī)借貸渠道出發(fā)分析借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的建立，通過R軟件成功建立了基于農(nóng)戶鏈接機制分析的農(nóng)戶借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)基本模型。 （4）通過對農(nóng)戶借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的統(tǒng)計物理分析得出了該網(wǎng)具有小世界和無標(biāo)度特征，并進一步分析了網(wǎng)絡(luò)的鏈接特征，此外通過對網(wǎng)絡(luò)中低收入群體的覆蓋情況分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)民間借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)可以有效促進低收入農(nóng)戶融資。 （5）通過假設(shè)經(jīng)濟增長和農(nóng)民組織化兩個方面的主體變化，得出兩種因素的改善都會農(nóng)戶借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)得到改進。通過對不同網(wǎng)絡(luò)組織類型的區(qū)分得出隨機網(wǎng)絡(luò)組織對農(nóng)戶借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的效力影響更明顯，同時針對性地開發(fā)社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)會對借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)改進有良好效果。 （6）文章對農(nóng)戶民間借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)面臨的點風(fēng)險和面風(fēng)險進行假設(shè)。得出遭遇面風(fēng)險時，農(nóng)戶有差異化的閥值有利于系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險的識別和準(zhǔn)備。而面對點風(fēng)險，借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)可能遭受的影響差異極大，網(wǎng)絡(luò)對隨機攻擊具有魯棒性，對針對大度節(jié)點的選擇性攻擊具有脆弱性。 本文的創(chuàng)新體現(xiàn)在以下三個方面： （1）本文將復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)的觀點引入農(nóng)村借貸系統(tǒng)的研究當(dāng)中通過對影響系統(tǒng)的基本元素進行分析完成系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的拓?fù)浣�，發(fā)現(xiàn)了農(nóng)村信貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的形成機制及一系列網(wǎng)絡(luò)的特征以及其所代表的經(jīng)濟、社會含義。 （2）本文在對農(nóng)村借貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)基本元素的計量和博弈研究中引入了一些新的變量和考慮因素，完善了前人在此方面的分析。 （3）本文在信貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型基礎(chǔ)上，從政策改進效力和系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險傳播兩個方面進行了分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)了不同假設(shè)下農(nóng)村信貸系統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)特征。
[Abstract]:The comprehensive and in - depth understanding of the rural credit system is the precondition for the reform of rural finance science . Although the current academic circle has done a lot of research in sociology , economics and so on , it still lacks more effective methods and thinking on how to deeply and systematize the social and economic complex system of rural credit system . Complex network has been widely used as an effective complex system research method in science , technology , economy , society and so on . It provides new conditions for solving this problem .

In this paper , the rural credit system is abstracted into the form of complex network from the rural credit system . Firstly , the characteristics of the nodes and edges of the lending network are analyzed from the basic influencing factors of the farmers ' borrowing , so as to get the basic construction of network modeling ;
Secondly , using the statistical modeling tools such as R software to model the complex network of the farmer credit system , and calculate the basic statistical physics index , the complex network character of the rural credit network is obtained ;
Finally , the paper analyzes the change of the main body of the farmer and the risk of the lending system , and analyzes the effect of the loan network on the improvement of the subject and the stability of the network system .

The main conclusions are as follows :

( 1 ) Through the measurement analysis , it is concluded that the core factors influencing the farmers ' borrowing are the economic capital ( income ) factor and the social capital factor , among which the influence of social capital factor is obviously bigger than the economic capital factor .

( 2 ) Under the premise of introducing social capital loss and effort utility , the paper analyzes the production mechanism of farmer ' s loan network link by using game theory , and obtains the conclusion that the private lending network is more beneficial to produce farmer ' s credit .

( 3 ) Based on the basic assumption of the two factors of economic capital and social capital , the establishment of the loan network model is analyzed from the private borrowing network and the formal borrowing channel , and the basic model of the farmer ' s loan network based on the analysis of the farmer ' s linkage mechanism is successfully established through the R software .

( 4 ) Through the statistical physical analysis of the farmer ' s lending network model , this paper concludes that the network has small world and no scale feature , further analyzes the link characteristics of the network , and finds that the private lending network can effectively promote the financing of low - income farmers by analyzing the coverage of low - income groups in the network .

( 5 ) By assuming the main changes in the two aspects of economic growth and farmer ' s organization , it is concluded that the improvement of the two factors will improve the peasant households ' lending network . By differentiating the types of different network organizations , it is clear that the effect of random network organization on the farmers ' lending network is more obvious , and the social network can be developed in a targeted way to improve the credit network improvement .

( 6 ) The paper makes a hypothesis on the point and face risks faced by peasant households ' private lending network . When confronted with the risk of face , the threshold value of farmer ' s differentiation is beneficial to the identification and preparation of systematic risk .

The innovation of this article is embodied in the following three aspects :

( 1 ) This paper introduces the idea of complex network into the research of rural credit system . Through analyzing the basic elements of the influencing system , the topology modeling of the system network is completed , the formation mechanism of the rural credit network and the characteristics of a series of networks and the economic and social implications of the network are found .

( 2 ) The paper introduces some new variables and considerations into the measurement and game research of the basic elements of rural lending network , and perfects the analysis of the former in this aspect .

( 3 ) Based on the credit network model , this paper analyzes two aspects of policy improvement effectiveness and systematic risk transmission , and finds out the system characteristics of rural credit system under different assumptions .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：O157.5;F832.43

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 樊瑛;索麗娜;沈曉松;胡延慶;;復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)視角下的NYSE市場投資結(jié)構(gòu)特性研究[J];北京師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2008年01期

2 《銀行家》研究中心課題組;王松奇;何廣文;張林;韓星;;傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)區(qū)金融需求與機構(gòu)布局調(diào)研報告[J];銀行家;2007年07期

3 劉婷;;基于社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)的農(nóng)民專業(yè)合作社發(fā)展研究[J];廣東農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2012年04期

4 朱守銀,張照新,張海陽,汪承先;中國農(nóng)村金融市場供給和需求——以傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)區(qū)為例[J];管理世界;2003年03期

5 黃瑋強;莊新田;姚爽;;中國股票關(guān)聯(lián)網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)湫再|(zhì)與聚類結(jié)構(gòu)分析[J];管理科學(xué);2008年03期

6 徐璋勇;郭梅亮;;轉(zhuǎn)型時期農(nóng)村非正規(guī)金融生成邏輯的理論分析——兼對農(nóng)村二元金融結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)象的解釋[J];經(jīng)濟學(xué)家;2008年05期

7 張杰;中國體制外增長中的金融安排[J];經(jīng)濟學(xué)家;1999年02期

8 梁運文;霍震;劉凱;;中國城鄉(xiāng)居民財產(chǎn)分布的實證研究[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2010年10期

9 洪正;;新型農(nóng)村金融機構(gòu)改革可行嗎?——基于監(jiān)督效率視角的分析[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2011年02期

10 劉民權(quán),徐忠,俞建拖;ROSCA研究綜述[J];金融研究;2003年02期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 譚開通;社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)對農(nóng)戶借貸的影響研究[D];湖南大學(xué);2012年

，

本文編號：2123328