本文選題：托賓q + 理性預(yù)期　； 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：約翰·弗雷澤穆思于1961年提出了理性預(yù)期假說,這一假說在以羅伯特·盧卡斯為代表的“理性預(yù)期學(xué)派”的奔走呼吁下,逐漸贏得了越來越多人的關(guān)注和研究。由于商品房市場本身就是一個(gè)參與人數(shù)眾多,資金密集,信息量巨大的市場,因此預(yù)期因素不可避免的在交易中扮演著不可或缺的角色。就國內(nèi)的有關(guān)商品房市場的研究而言,將理性預(yù)期因素納入其分析框架的不在少數(shù)。但這些研究存在著一個(gè)共同的特點(diǎn),就是將理性預(yù)期作為研究我國商品房市場時(shí)的前提條件,其研究結(jié)論都是建立在這一前提之上。這里面就存在一個(gè)問題,那就是我國的商品房市場是否是理性預(yù)期的?本文就對這一核心問題進(jìn)行了解答。 為了推導(dǎo)出商品房市場的理性預(yù)期模型,本文將托賓的q理論納入了理論模型的推導(dǎo)框架,并將托賓q定義為商品房售價(jià)與其重置成本的比,而分析重置成本時(shí),主要考慮了土地的購置費(fèi)用和竣工造價(jià)成本。與其他已有的將托賓q理論應(yīng)用于研究商品房市場投資額和托賓q關(guān)系所不同的是,本文將托賓的q理論應(yīng)用于商品房市場的供給和需求與托賓q的關(guān)系研究,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)商品房市場的供給與托賓q正相關(guān),而需求則與托賓q負(fù)相關(guān)。在將托賓q作為聯(lián)系商品房供給和需求的價(jià)格指標(biāo)后,推導(dǎo)出了理性預(yù)期條件下商品房銷售面積的均衡解。 檢驗(yàn)理性預(yù)期假說有兩種檢驗(yàn)方法,一種是直接檢驗(yàn)法,即檢驗(yàn)預(yù)測的無偏性和有效性；另一種是間接檢驗(yàn)法,即結(jié)合具體的理論模型對理性預(yù)期假說進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。本文結(jié)合理論部分推導(dǎo)出商品房市場的理性預(yù)期模型,采用了間接檢驗(yàn)法,檢驗(yàn)了商品房市場房屋重置成本的變化對商品房銷售面積的影響,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)只有未預(yù)期到的商品房重置成本的變化才會(huì)對商品房銷售面積的增長率產(chǎn)生影響,而預(yù)期到的商品房重置成本的變化并不會(huì)對商品房銷售面積的增長率產(chǎn)生實(shí)質(zhì)性的影響,從而證明了我國商品房市場是理性預(yù)期的。 接著,在上述研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本文對政府針對商品房市場的宏觀調(diào)控應(yīng)該如何實(shí)施提出了相應(yīng)的意見和建議。最后,從模型的假設(shè)、數(shù)據(jù)的選取、數(shù)據(jù)的真實(shí)準(zhǔn)確性、未考慮理性預(yù)期對商品房價(jià)格的影響等方面揭示了本文研究的不足,又從托賓q和商品房存量的動(dòng)態(tài)圖、政府的商品房市場宏觀調(diào)控的有效性、商品房市場的理性泡沫、個(gè)體理性是否能夠?qū)е录w非理性,這四個(gè)方面指明了下一步研究的方向。
[Abstract]:John Fraser put forward the hypothesis of rational expectation in 1961. Under the appeal of "rational expectation School" represented by Robert Lucas, the hypothesis has gradually won more and more attention and research. As the commercial housing market itself is a large number of participants, capital intensive, huge information market, so the expected factors inevitably play an indispensable role in the transaction. As far as the domestic research on the commercial housing market is concerned, the rational expectation factors are included in its analytical framework. However, there is a common characteristic in these studies, which is to regard rational expectation as the precondition for the study of the commercial housing market in China, and its research conclusions are all based on this premise. There is a problem in this, that is, our commercial housing market is rational expectations? This article has carried on the solution to this core question. In order to deduce the rational expectation model of commercial housing market, this paper brings Tobin's Q theory into the derivation frame of the theoretical model, and defines Tobin Q as the ratio of the selling price of commercial housing to its replacement cost. Mainly considered the land purchase cost and the completion cost. In this paper, we apply Tobin's Q theory to the study of the relationship between the supply and demand of the commercial housing market and Tobin Q, which is different from other existing studies on the relationship between the amount of investment in the commercial housing market and the Tobin Q relationship, and the application of Tobin's Q theory to the study of the supply and demand of the commodity housing market. The results show that the supply of commercial housing market is positively correlated with Tobin Q, while demand is negatively correlated with Tobin Q. Taking Tobin Q as the price index to link the supply and demand of commercial housing, the equilibrium solution of the sales area of commercial housing under the condition of rational expectation is deduced. There are two testing methods to test rational expectation hypothesis, one is direct test method, which is to test the unbiased and validity of prediction, the other is indirect test method, that is, combining with specific theoretical model to test rational expectation hypothesis. In this paper, the rational expectation model of the commercial housing market is deduced in combination with the theory, and the indirect test method is used to test the effect of the change of the replacement cost of the house in the commercial housing market on the sale area of the commercial housing. The results show that only unexpected changes in the replacement cost of commercial housing will have an impact on the growth rate of commercial housing sales area. The change of the expected replacement cost of commercial housing will not have a substantial impact on the growth rate of commercial housing sales area, which proves that the market of commercial housing in our country is rational expectation. Then, on the basis of the above research, this paper puts forward the corresponding opinions and suggestions on how to implement the macro-control of the commercial housing market. Finally, from the hypothesis of the model, the selection of the data, the accuracy of the data, the influence of the rational expectation on the price of the commercial housing, this paper reveals the deficiency of this paper, and from the dynamic graph of Tobin Q and the stock of the commercial house, The effectiveness of the government's macro-control of the commercial housing market, the rational bubble of the commercial housing market, and whether the individual rationality can lead to collective irrationality, these four aspects point out the direction of further research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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