本文選題：不確定性 + 多目標(biāo)格序決策　； 參考：《西南交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：在工程建設(shè)項目的各階段決策中,需要同時考慮工程質(zhì)量,投入成本,施工進度,社會效益,環(huán)境影響等多方面問題。在多準(zhǔn)則決策過程中,“不可公度性”和“矛盾性”時刻存在,再有決策者的不確定性偏好關(guān)系導(dǎo)致在各種備選方案中很難進行絕對化的優(yōu)劣排序。在工程實際問題中,由于環(huán)境的不同,不同決策者所考慮決策問題中各項指標(biāo)準(zhǔn)則不同,使得其對各項指標(biāo)的評價值具有不穩(wěn)定性,并在一定的范圍內(nèi)波動。另外獲得決策信息環(huán)境的局限性也可能導(dǎo)致決策信息具有隨機性和模糊性,這就致使各指標(biāo)權(quán)重描述結(jié)果不僅僅是一個點,而是一個區(qū)間,從而造成方案選擇兩難。 本文在多目標(biāo)格序決策和不確定性決策等相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了多目標(biāo)格序決策方法在建設(shè)項目投資決策中的應(yīng)用。該方法運用項目前期收集的模糊資料,采用最優(yōu)權(quán)重分析法獲得綜合評價區(qū)間,再根據(jù)各評價值在自身區(qū)間中不同的概率分布,獲得相應(yīng)最優(yōu)值,對比多種方案,選取最優(yōu)方案。 本文采用的模型需要前期數(shù)據(jù)的模糊性減輕了資料收集階段的工作量,并且可以避免在前期資料整理中人為剔除等主觀因素造成的對資料信息的不利影響,打破了一直以來采用中間值、平均值代替評價值而不考慮評價值分布問題的做法,很好的解決了當(dāng)前國內(nèi)外建設(shè)項目中多目標(biāo)決策所遇到的方案比較準(zhǔn)則層的多樣性及權(quán)重的多變性,收集信息的模糊性,以及決策者偏好關(guān)系的不確定性等問題,在建設(shè)項目實際應(yīng)用中具有重要的意義。
[Abstract]:In the decision making of engineering construction project, many problems such as project quality, input cost, construction schedule, social benefit and environmental impact should be considered at the same time. In the process of multi-criteria decision making, "incommensurate" and "contradictory" exist at times, and the uncertain preference relationship of decision makers makes it difficult to rank the advantages and disadvantages of absolute in all kinds of alternatives. In engineering practice, because of the difference of environment, different decision makers consider different index criteria, which makes the evaluation value of each index unstable, and fluctuates in a certain range. In addition, the limitation of obtaining the decision information environment may lead to the randomness and fuzziness of the decision information, which leads to the result that the weight description result of each index is not only a point, but also an interval, resulting in the dilemma of scheme selection. Based on the theory of multi-objective lattice order decision and uncertainty decision, this paper puts forward the application of multi-objective lattice order decision method in investment decision of construction project. This method uses the fuzzy data collected in the early stage of the project, uses the optimal weight analysis method to obtain the comprehensive evaluation interval, then according to the different probability distribution of each evaluation value in its own interval, obtains the corresponding optimum value, compares many kinds of schemes. Select the optimal scheme. The model adopted in this paper needs the fuzziness of the early data to reduce the workload of the data collection stage, and can avoid the adverse effects on the data information caused by subjective factors such as artificial elimination in the early data processing. Breaking with the traditional practice of using the median value, the average value instead of the evaluation value, without considering the distribution of the evaluation value, It solves the problems of diversity and weight variability of criterion layer, fuzzy information collection, uncertainty of preference relationship between decision makers and so on, which are encountered in multi-objective decision making in construction projects at home and abroad. It is of great significance in the practical application of construction projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F830.59

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 劉常青,郭耀煌;有理數(shù)概率下的效用表示定理[J];成都理工學(xué)院學(xué)報;2001年02期

2 肖四漢,樊治平,王夢光;群決策中兩類偏好信息集成的目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型[J];東北大學(xué)學(xué)報;2000年04期

3 羅云峰,朱明富,岳超源,陳s，

本文編號：1899781