本文選題：臺商直接投資 + 出口規(guī)模�。� 參考：《寧波大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著海峽兩岸關系逐步發(fā)展，特別是經濟合作框架協(xié)議（ECFA）及投資保障協(xié)議等一系列合作協(xié)議的成功簽署和實施，臺商對大陸直接投資與兩岸雙邊貿易迅速發(fā)展，已進入制度化與機制化階段。此間臺商直接投資不僅彌補了大陸建設資金不足，而且?guī)硐冗M生產技術與管理經驗，促進大陸對臺及對外出口貿易增長。新形勢下，分析、研究臺商直接投資的進展，尤其是與大陸對臺出口貿易間的內在聯系及其成因，，對縮小大陸對臺灣地區(qū)貿易逆差、推動兩岸經貿關系深化發(fā)展和區(qū)域經濟一體化，無疑具有重要戰(zhàn)略與現實指導意義。 在簡要梳理相關理論與實踐研究進展基礎上，本文主要從規(guī)模與結構兩個方面構建外商直接投資的東道國出口效應理論分析框架；進而就臺商直接投資與大陸對臺出口貿易問題進行描述性統(tǒng)計分析，得出二者可能存在的相關關系；同時運用協(xié)整檢驗與誤差修正模型等計量方法，實證研究了臺商直接投資的大陸對臺出口規(guī)模與結構效應。在此基礎上，建立臺商直接投資的技術溢出效應模型，分析臺商直接投資對大陸出口產生引致效應的實質；借鑒Manuel等（2005）總投資模型，分析臺商直接投資對大陸資本的擠入效應。在計量方法上，以回歸分析為主，同時結合時間序列ADF檢驗、Johansen協(xié)整檢驗等多種檢驗方法，使實證結論更加嚴謹準確。 實證分析結果表明：臺商直接投資擴大了大陸對臺出口規(guī)模，縮小了大陸對臺貿易逆差；同時優(yōu)化了大陸對臺出口結構，臺商直接投資與初級制成品出口比重之間不存在協(xié)整關系，與資源密集型、低技術密集型、中技術密集型、高技術密集型產品出口比重的增加正相關，且對高技術密集型產品出口比重增加的促進作用大于低、中技術密集型產品出口的促進作用。深入分析臺商直接投資引致大陸對臺出口結構優(yōu)化原因，結果顯示：臺商直接投資存在正向技術溢出效應，能夠提升大陸境內企業(yè)技術水平，促進對臺灣地區(qū)出口產品跨越非關稅壁壘；也存在資本擠入效應，增加大陸境內總資本積累，一定程度上改變大陸境內要素結構。最后，根據研究結論，提出了新形勢下利用臺資帶動大陸對臺出口及進一步優(yōu)化大陸對臺出口結構的相應對策建議。
[Abstract]:With the gradual development of cross-strait relations, especially the successful signing and implementation of a series of cooperation agreements, such as the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFAA) and the Investment guarantee Agreement, direct investment by Taiwan businessmen to the mainland and bilateral trade between the two sides have developed rapidly. It has entered the stage of institutionalization and institutionalization. Direct investment by Taiwanese businessmen not only makes up for the shortage of capital for construction in the mainland, but also brings advanced production technology and management experience, and promotes the growth of mainland's trade with Taiwan and its foreign exports. Under the new situation, this paper analyzes and studies the progress of direct investment by Taiwan businessmen, especially the internal relations and causes of the export trade with the mainland to Taiwan, so as to reduce the trade deficit between the mainland and Taiwan. It is undoubtedly of strategic and practical significance to promote the development of cross-strait economic and trade relations and regional economic integration. On the basis of briefly combing the research progress of relevant theory and practice, this paper constructs the theoretical analysis framework of host country's export effect of FDI from two aspects: scale and structure. Then, the paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the direct investment of Taiwan businessmen and the export trade of mainland China to Taiwan, and obtains the possible correlation between the two. At the same time, it uses the co-integration test and error correction model, etc. This paper empirically studies the scale and structure of mainland exports to Taiwan. On this basis, the technology spillover effect model of Taiwanese direct investment is established, and the essence of the effect of Taiwanese direct investment on mainland exports is analyzed, and the total investment model of Manuel et al. 2005) is used to analyze the crowding effect of Taiwanese direct investment on mainland capital. In terms of measurement methods, regression analysis is the main method and Johansen cointegration test is combined with time series ADF test to make the empirical conclusion more precise and accurate. The results of empirical analysis show that direct investment by Taiwan businessmen has enlarged the scale of mainland exports to Taiwan, reduced the mainland's trade deficit with Taiwan, and optimized the structure of mainland exports to Taiwan. There is no cointegration relationship between the direct investment of Taiwan businessmen and the proportion of primary manufactured goods exports, but it is positively related to the increase in the proportion of exports of resource-intensive, low-technology-intensive, medium-technology-intensive, and high-technology-intensive products. Moreover, the promotion effect on the export proportion of high technology intensive products is greater than that of low, and the promotion effect of medium technology intensive products is higher than that of medium technology intensive products. An in-depth analysis of the reasons for the optimization of the mainland's export structure resulting from Taiwan's direct investment shows that there is a positive technology spillover effect on Taiwan's direct investment, which can enhance the technology level of mainland enterprises. To promote exports to Taiwan across non-tariff barriers, there is also the effect of capital crowding in, increasing the total capital accumulation in the mainland, and to a certain extent changing the structure of the elements in the mainland. Finally, according to the conclusion of the research, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions of using Taiwan capital to promote mainland's export to Taiwan and to further optimize the structure of mainland's export to Taiwan under the new situation.
【學位授予單位】：寧波大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127

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