本文選題：老年公寓 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)��； 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著老齡化進(jìn)程的加速,人口老齡化成為未來(lái)必然趨勢(shì),隨著產(chǎn)生的養(yǎng)老問(wèn)題已經(jīng)引起了許多學(xué)者的重視。我國(guó)傳統(tǒng)的家庭結(jié)構(gòu)正在發(fā)生著轉(zhuǎn)變,傳統(tǒng)的家庭養(yǎng)老觀念受到了一些挑戰(zhàn),社會(huì)化養(yǎng)老方式正在被逐漸接受。老年公寓作為社會(huì)化養(yǎng)老方式的一種,在我國(guó)起步較晚,發(fā)展中還存在一些列問(wèn)題�？紤]到老年公寓高投入、高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特點(diǎn),開(kāi)發(fā)和管理過(guò)程中受到來(lái)自政策、經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)等因素的影響,面臨較大不確定性。在此背景下,本文以峰匯老年公寓項(xiàng)目為例,分析開(kāi)發(fā)和管理過(guò)程中面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,為項(xiàng)目決策提供依據(jù)。 本文選擇峰匯項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理為研究對(duì)象,作者介紹了老年公寓開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)概念,對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的方法進(jìn)行了梳理,為全文的研究奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。結(jié)合蘇州市的情況分析了老年公寓的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀以及存在的問(wèn)題,對(duì)老年公寓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目和一般房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了對(duì)比,點(diǎn)出其特殊性,從自然風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)六個(gè)方面對(duì)老年公寓建設(shè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。作者邀請(qǐng)行業(yè)以及開(kāi)發(fā)企業(yè)的若干名專家,利用頭腦風(fēng)暴法建立了峰匯老年公寓項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,利用層次分析法計(jì)算了指標(biāo)權(quán)重,同時(shí)利用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià),認(rèn)為該項(xiàng)目面臨的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在于經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)、市場(chǎng)以及管理方面。針對(duì)以上風(fēng)險(xiǎn),作者提出了若干應(yīng)對(duì)措施。 本文的研究對(duì)于峰匯老年公寓項(xiàng)目的開(kāi)發(fā)和建設(shè)具有一定的指導(dǎo)作用,同時(shí)對(duì)于類似項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工作也有一定的借鑒。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the aging process, population aging has become an inevitable trend in the future, with the emergence of pension problems have attracted the attention of many scholars. The traditional family structure of our country is changing, the traditional concept of family pension has been challenged, and the way of socialized old-age support is gradually accepted. As one of the ways of socialized old-age support, apartment for the aged starts late in our country, and there are still some problems in its development. Considering the characteristics of high investment and high risk, the development and management process is influenced by the factors of policy, economy, technology and so on. In this context, this paper takes the Fenghui elderly apartment project as an example, analyzes the risk factors in the process of development and management, and provides the basis for project decision-making. In this paper, the risk management of Fenghui Project is selected as the research object. The author introduces the related concepts of the risk of the development of the elderly apartment, and combs the methods of risk assessment, which lays a theoretical foundation for the research of the full text. Technical risk, management risk six aspects of the elderly apartment construction project risk analysis. The author invited some experts from the industry and the development enterprise to establish the risk evaluation index system of Fenghui elderly apartment project by using the brainstorming method, and calculated the index weight by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). At the same time, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk. It is concluded that the main risk of the project lies in the aspects of economy, technology, market and management. In view of the above risks, the author puts forward some countermeasures. The research in this paper has a certain guiding role for the development and construction of Fenghui elderly apartment project, and also has some reference for the risk management work of similar projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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