企業(yè)債務融資與我國廣義貨幣供應關系的實證分析
發(fā)布時間:2018-04-16 11:16
本文選題:企業(yè)債務融資 + 信貸融資; 參考:《上海師范大學》2013年碩士論文
【摘要】:為了應對國際金融危機的沖擊,我國積極的財政政策和適度寬松的貨幣政策導致貨幣信貸增長過快,在重點關注信貸等影響貨幣增速加快的因素下,融資結構的不合理造成貨幣供應持續(xù)增長并高于其他國家也逐漸被政策制定者和學者們關注,間接融資比例過高而直接融資比例過低也是我國融資結構一直面臨的問題。借鑒日本在信貸主導M2走勢的情形下依靠大力發(fā)展債市來實現經濟平穩(wěn)過渡及吸取美國在高通脹情況下沒有馬上控制信貸融資增長的教訓,我國自2005年開始提出“擴大直接融資規(guī)模”,并重點發(fā)展企業(yè)債市,,自2008年企業(yè)債市實現發(fā)展飛躍后,我國又相繼推出短期融資券,中期票據、超短融、私募債、定向債務融資工具等創(chuàng)新型企業(yè)債券融資工具,實現了我國企業(yè)債券發(fā)展規(guī)模持續(xù)快速增長。除此以外,認為間接融資派生貨幣而直接融資對貨幣供應沒有影響的傳統(tǒng)觀點也已遭到各界的質疑。從社會融資結構的角度來看,銀行持有直接融資中的企業(yè)債占企業(yè)債總持有量的60%,而銀行持有企業(yè)債同樣具有貨幣派生效應,這使得討論企業(yè)債務融資對貨幣供應的增長具有重要的意義。 本文采用定性分析和定量分析相結合、內因和外因相結合及對比分析的方法,以貨幣派生傳導原理為基礎框架,通過引入貨幣供應融資乘數這個關鍵變量,來推導研究融資企業(yè)直接融資占比提高的情況下,貨幣供應融資乘數這個變量的變動狀況。并通過采用近五年月度企業(yè)債發(fā)行規(guī)模、新增人民幣貸款、廣義貨幣M2增量的月度數據來對這三者的關系進行實證分析。 理論部分通過在只有間接融資,間接融資和企業(yè)債務融資并存,以及間接融資和企業(yè)債務融資并存,并且考慮銀行購買企業(yè)債的三種情形下對貨幣供應融資乘數的討論,得出加入直接融資減小貨幣供應量,銀行購買 企業(yè)債有貨幣派生效果的結論,并且通過實證環(huán)節(jié)對企業(yè)債務融資和信貸融資對M2增長的回歸分析,證明了理論部分推導的結論。 本文在論述過程中,力求把理論與中國的實際相結合,將西方的理論思想和中國經濟數據都放到中國的經濟的大背景下討論,以期獲得較為可靠的結果。
[Abstract]:In order to cope with the impact of the international financial crisis, China's active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy have led to the excessive growth of monetary credit.The unreasonable financing structure leads to the continuous growth of the money supply and is gradually concerned by the policy makers and scholars. The excessive proportion of indirect financing and the too low proportion of direct financing are the problems that China's financing structure has been facing all the time.Draw lessons from Japan's reliance on vigorously developing the debt market to achieve a smooth economic transition under the circumstances of credit leading M2 and the lessons that the United States has not immediately controlled the growth of credit financing in the context of high inflation.Since 2005, China has put forward to "expand the scale of direct financing" and focus on the development of the enterprise bond market. Since 2008, when the enterprise bond market has achieved a leap, China has successively introduced short-term financing bonds, medium-term notes, ultra-short financing, private equity debt.Innovative corporate bond financing tools, such as directed debt financing tools, have achieved a sustained and rapid growth in the scale of corporate bond development in China.In addition, the traditional view that indirect financing derivative currency and direct financing have no impact on money supply has been questioned.From the point of view of the social financing structure, the corporate debt held by banks accounts for 60% of the total holdings of corporate bonds, while the bank holding corporate bonds also has currency derivative effect.This makes the discussion of corporate debt financing to the growth of the money supply of great significance.This paper adopts the methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the combination of internal and external factors and comparative analysis, based on the principle of monetary derivative conduction, through the introduction of money supply financing multiplier as a key variable.In order to deduce the change of the variable of money supply financing multiplier when the proportion of direct financing of financing enterprises is increased.And through the use of monthly corporate bond issuance scale in the past five years, new RMB loans, and the monthly data of M2 increment, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the three.The theory part discusses the money supply financing multiplier under only indirect financing, indirect financing and corporate debt financing, as well as indirect financing and corporate debt financing.To add direct financing to reduce money supply, banks buyThe conclusion that corporate bonds have the effect of money derivation is proved by the regression analysis of corporate debt financing and credit financing on M2 growth.In this paper, we try to combine the theory with the reality of China, and discuss the western theory and Chinese economic data under the background of China's economy, in order to get more reliable results.
【學位授予單位】:上海師范大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2013
【分類號】:F832.51;F822.2;F275
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