本文選題：實物期權 + 資本投資決策�。� 參考：《華南理工大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：實物期權方法因考慮了管理柔性的價值而受到理論界的推崇，但調查研究發(fā)現在資本投資決策實踐中，管理者幾乎不應用或不能正確應用實物期權方法，這是由于現有的實物期權方法是在理性決策框架中提出，即假設管理者是完全理性的，但實際決策過程是行為決策，，會受到管理者心理因素與認知偏差的影響。行為決策理論的研究是將人的行為特征考慮到決策方法中，從而達到更有效的解決實際決策問題的目的。本文基于行為決策理論解決實物期權方法的推廣應用問題，提出有助于實物期權方法更好應用的步驟，供管理者在資本投資實踐中遵循。本文對豐富行為決策理論關于實物期權方法的研究與提高現實中資本投資決策的效率具有一定的價值和意義。 本文依據行為決策理論分析現實中管理者不應用以及不能正確應用實物期權方法的原因，通過改進實物期權方法的兩個關鍵邏輯步驟（實物期權識別與實物期權價值評估）中的具體技法，同時在實物期權方法的應用步驟中增加規(guī)避非理性行為的步驟，最終提出基于行為的實物期權方法的應用步驟，具體步驟為：組織管理者學習實物期權知識；組織管理者學習行為決策理論；識別影響項目價值的不確定因素；識別對項目價值影響程度大的敏感性因素；識別對項目價值影響程度大且發(fā)生概率高的重要風險因素；提出管理應對策略；識別實物期權；組織管理者學習二叉樹實物期權價值評估技法；估算標的項目的價值；估算標的項目價值波動標準差；根據二叉樹方法評估實物期權的價值；依據決策準則做出資本投資決策。
[Abstract]:The real option method is respected by the theoretical circle because of considering the value of management flexibility. However, the investigation and research shows that in the practice of capital investment decision, the real option method is almost not used or can not be applied correctly by managers.This is because the existing real option method is put forward in the framework of rational decision-making, that is, assuming that the manager is completely rational, but the actual decision-making process is behavioral decision, which will be influenced by the psychological factors and cognitive bias of managers.The study of behavioral decision theory is to consider the characteristics of human behavior into the decision making method, so as to achieve a more effective solution to the actual decision-making problem.Based on the behavioral decision theory, this paper solves the problem of the extension and application of the real option method, and puts forward the steps that will be helpful to the better application of the real option method, which can be followed by the managers in the practice of capital investment.This paper has certain value and significance for enriching the research on real option method in behavioral decision theory and improving the efficiency of capital investment decision in reality.Based on the behavioral decision theory, this paper analyzes the reasons why managers do not use the real option method and can not use it correctly.By improving the specific techniques in the two key logical steps of the real option method (real option identification and real option value evaluation), and adding steps to avoid irrational behavior in the application steps of the real option method,Finally, the application steps of Behavior-based Real option method are put forward. The specific steps are as follows: organizational managers learn real option knowledge, organizational managers learn behavior decision theory, identify the uncertain factors that affect the value of the project.Identify the sensitive factors that have a great impact on the project value; identify the important risk factors that have a great impact on the project value and high probability of occurrence; propose management response strategies; identify real options;Organization managers learn the binary tree real option valuation techniques; estimate the value of the underlying project; estimate the standard deviation of the value fluctuation of the underlying project; evaluate the value of real options according to the binary tree method; and make capital investment decisions based on the decision criteria.
【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F830.9

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