本文選題：重慶房地產(chǎn)泡沫 + 指標(biāo)體系��； 參考：《重慶工商大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：進入新世紀(jì)以來，我國的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅速，已經(jīng)逐步成為了我國的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)之一。從2000年開始，重慶市的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)逐步步入了繁榮發(fā)展的時期，其中商品住宅價格、銷售面積不斷上漲，同時投資性和投機性購房也開始大量的增加。隨著重慶市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的蓬勃發(fā)展，房地產(chǎn)價格泡沫問題逐漸成為老百姓關(guān)注的熱點，市場上開始出現(xiàn)“泡沫論”和“非泡沫論”的爭論。本文以此爭論出發(fā)，展開關(guān)于重慶市泡沫問題的研究，目的在于驗證重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場究竟是否存在泡沫以及泡沫的程度如何，因為只有首先確定了房地產(chǎn)市場泡沫的程度，才能正確的制定房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展計劃和管理措施。 論文首先對房地產(chǎn)泡沫的相關(guān)理論進行歸納和分析，對房地產(chǎn)泡沫的區(qū)別進行了說明，接著從宏觀、制度和微觀三個層面對房地產(chǎn)泡沫的形成機制進行了分析，同時還分析了房地產(chǎn)泡沫的運行機制和結(jié)束機制，為下文提出相應(yīng)的預(yù)防政策打下基礎(chǔ)。 接著簡要介紹了重慶市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀，指出其已經(jīng)是重慶市經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)之一。 論文的主要部分之一是對重慶市房地產(chǎn)泡沫進行測度，分為兩個層次，分別采取了指標(biāo)指示法和計量模型法進行驗證。指標(biāo)指示法采用了“房地產(chǎn)投資占全社會固定資產(chǎn)總額”、“房屋銷售額增長率與社會零售品銷售額增長率之比”、“房價收入比”和經(jīng)過修正的“房價收入比”來考察重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場的健康程度；基于供求角度的計量模型則通過計算均衡價格，與實際價格相比，來檢驗重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場的泡沫程度，兩種方法相互驗證，得出了重慶市自2001-2004年房價泡沫開始醞釀，2005年、2007年顯著膨脹，2006年和2008年有一定程度收斂，2009年至2011年房價泡沫非常嚴(yán)重但有一定收斂趨勢的結(jié)論。兩種方法有力的駁斥了房地產(chǎn)市場的“無泡沫論“。 接下來論文在得到的重慶市房地產(chǎn)泡沫度基礎(chǔ)上從宏觀、制度、微觀三個層面對重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場泡沫的成因進行了分析，，并針對重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場的具體情況，以產(chǎn)業(yè)政策理論為指導(dǎo)，提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議來預(yù)防并降低其危害。主要從政府資源調(diào)控、干預(yù)土地市場的角度出發(fā)，提出了如何有效化解和防范房地產(chǎn)泡沫的手段與政策措施，指出政府應(yīng)該綜合運用金融、稅收、行政等手段調(diào)控重慶房地產(chǎn)市場，以防止泡沫的進一步膨脹。
[Abstract]:Since entering the new century, the real estate industry of our country has developed rapidly and has gradually become one of the pillar industries of our country.Since 2000, the real estate industry in Chongqing has gradually stepped into a period of prosperity and development, in which the price of commodity housing and the area of sales have been rising, while the investment and speculative purchase of houses have also begun to increase in a large number.With the booming development of the real estate industry in Chongqing, the issue of real estate price bubble has gradually become the focus of common people's attention, and the controversy between "bubble theory" and "non-bubble theory" is beginning to appear in the market.Based on this argument, this paper carries out a study on the bubble in Chongqing, the purpose of which is to verify whether or not there is a bubble in the real estate market of Chongqing and the extent of the bubble, because only the extent of the bubble in the real estate market is first determined.In order to correctly formulate the real estate development plan and management measures.First, the paper summarizes and analyzes the relevant theories of real estate bubble, explains the difference of real estate bubble, and then analyzes the formation mechanism of real estate bubble from macro, institutional and micro levels.At the same time, it analyzes the operation mechanism and the ending mechanism of the real estate bubble, which lays the foundation for the corresponding prevention policy.Then it briefly introduces the current situation of Chongqing's real estate industry, and points out that it has become one of the pillar industries of Chongqing's economic and social development.One of the main parts of this paper is to measure the real estate bubble in Chongqing, which is divided into two levels."Real estate investment accounts for the total fixed assets of the whole society" and "the ratio of housing sales growth rate to the growth rate of social retail sales" is adopted in the indicator indicator method.The "price-to-income ratio" and the revised "price-to-income ratio" are used to examine the health of the real estate market in Chongqing, while the econometric model based on the angle of supply and demand calculates the equilibrium price, which is compared with the actual price.To test the bubble degree of the real estate market in Chongqing, the two methods verify each other.This paper draws the conclusion that the housing price bubble in Chongqing has been brewing since 2001-2004, expanded significantly in 2005, 2007, converged to a certain extent in 2006 and 2008, and became very serious from 2009 to 2011, but has a certain convergence trend.Two methods powerfully refute the "bubble-free theory" of the real estate market.On the basis of the degree of real estate bubble in Chongqing, the paper analyzes the causes of the bubble in Chongqing real estate market from the macro, institutional and micro levels, and aims at the specific situation of the real estate market in Chongqing.Under the guidance of industrial policy theory, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward to prevent and reduce its harm.From the angle of government resource regulation and intervention in the land market, this paper puts forward the means and policy measures to effectively resolve and prevent the real estate bubble, and points out that the government should make comprehensive use of finance and taxation.Administrative and other measures to control the real estate market in Chongqing to prevent further expansion of the bubble.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F224

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