本文選題：房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控　切入點(diǎn)：房貸違約率　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的健康發(fā)展發(fā)揮著重大的作用。21世紀(jì)以來(lái)中國(guó)經(jīng)歷了多次房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控。近幾年中國(guó)進(jìn)入最嚴(yán)厲的緊縮性房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控時(shí)期，調(diào)控政策使房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格過(guò)快上漲得到控制，同時(shí)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也產(chǎn)生一定的影響。社會(huì)各界僅僅關(guān)注調(diào)控政策對(duì)房貸違約率短期的負(fù)面影響，但對(duì)其深層影響認(rèn)識(shí)不多。學(xué)術(shù)界在相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的研究較少，且缺乏實(shí)證研究。本文通過(guò)定性與定量相結(jié)合的方法分析房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控對(duì)房貸違約率變動(dòng)規(guī)律的影響，具有較大的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文在正確認(rèn)識(shí)中國(guó)房貸違約率特征的基礎(chǔ)上，通過(guò)對(duì)2001-2011年房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策的回顧，對(duì)調(diào)控政策的成效及其對(duì)房貸違約率的影響進(jìn)行分析。并論證了房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控對(duì)違約率變動(dòng)規(guī)律產(chǎn)生以下深層影響：一是降低房貸違約率；二是降低房貸違約率的順經(jīng)濟(jì)周期效應(yīng)。緊縮性政策通過(guò)以下渠道降低房貸違約率：（1）引導(dǎo)房?jī)r(jià)理性回歸；（2）促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化與行業(yè)整合；（3）規(guī)范金融機(jī)構(gòu)行為。擴(kuò)張性政策通過(guò)促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇；加強(qiáng)金融支持，推進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)融資多元化來(lái)降低房貸違約率。在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上，本文通過(guò)修正CPV模型，，構(gòu)建了考慮調(diào)控政策因素的房貸違約率測(cè)算模型，并分別對(duì)全樣本和分時(shí)段子樣本進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。全樣本的研究表明，該模型是一個(gè)有效度量中國(guó)房貸違約率的工具。房貸違約率的順周期效應(yīng)明顯，GDP增長(zhǎng)率與房貸違約率呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系；國(guó)房景氣指數(shù)、長(zhǎng)期利率與違約率成正相關(guān)關(guān)系；房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策使違約率降低且影響顯著。分樣本研究發(fā)現(xiàn)調(diào)控政策影響下房貸違約率的順經(jīng)濟(jì)周期效應(yīng)不斷減弱。最后，本文就政府在實(shí)施房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控的前提下如何更好地防范和控制房地產(chǎn)信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、降低房貸違約率，提出以下政策建議：建立信貸違約數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)；建立房地產(chǎn)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量模型；加強(qiáng)宏觀調(diào)控力度與政策執(zhí)行力度；提高房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策的有效性；建立可持續(xù)的房地產(chǎn)金融制度。
[Abstract]:China's real estate regulation plays an important role in the healthy development of real estate market. China has experienced many real estate regulation and control since the 21st century.In recent years, China has entered the most severe period of tightening real estate regulation and control policy, which controls the rapid rise of real estate prices and also has a certain impact on the real estate credit risk.The society only pays attention to the negative impact of the adjustment and control policy on mortgage default rate in the short term, but does not know much about its deep impact.Academic research in related fields is less, and lack of empirical research.This paper analyzes the influence of real estate regulation on the changing law of mortgage default rate through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, which has great theoretical and practical significance.Based on the correct understanding of the characteristics of China's mortgage default rate, this paper analyzes the effect of the regulation policy and its impact on the mortgage default rate through the review of the real estate regulation and control policies from 2001 to 2011.It also demonstrates that the regulation of real estate has the following deep effects on the law of default rate: first, to reduce the rate of mortgage default; second, to reduce the procyclical effect of mortgage default rate.The contractionary policies reduce the default rate of mortgage loans through the following channels: (1)) guide the rational return of housing prices) and promote the optimization of the real estate industry structure and the integration of the real estate industry. (3) standardize the behavior of financial institutions.Expansionary policies reduce mortgage default rates by boosting the recovery of the real estate market, strengthening financial support and diversifying real estate financing.On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper, by modifying the CPV model, constructs a real estate loan default rate calculation model considering the factors of adjustment and control policy, and carries on the empirical research on the whole sample and sub-sample respectively.The full sample study shows that the model is an effective tool to measure the default rate of Chinese mortgage.The pro-cyclical effect of mortgage default rate shows that the GDP growth rate is negatively correlated with the mortgage default rate; the national housing boom index, long-term interest rate and default rate are positively correlated; the real estate regulation policy reduces the default rate and has a significant impact.The sub-sample study found that the pro-business cycle effect of mortgage default rate is weakening under the influence of regulation and control policies.Finally, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions on how to better prevent and control the real estate credit risk and reduce the mortgage default rate under the premise of the implementation of real estate regulation and control: establish a credit default database;Establish real estate credit risk measurement model; strengthen macro-control and policy implementation; improve the effectiveness of real estate regulation and control policies; establish a sustainable real estate financial system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.45

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