本文選題：經(jīng)驗(yàn)?zāi)B(tài)分解(EMD)　切入點(diǎn)：EEMD　出處：《經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論》2014年04期

【摘要】：本文運(yùn)用1991年1月-2011年12月房地產(chǎn)銷售價(jià)格指數(shù)的月度數(shù)據(jù),結(jié)合最新發(fā)展的集合經(jīng)驗(yàn)?zāi)B(tài)分解(EEMD)技術(shù),從多尺度識(shí)別了我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)內(nèi)在的準(zhǔn)周期成分。準(zhǔn)周期的識(shí)別過程就是房?jī)r(jià)形成因素的尋找過程。以房地產(chǎn)改革元年1998年為數(shù)據(jù)分?jǐn)帱c(diǎn)做比較研究和穩(wěn)定性檢驗(yàn),對(duì)應(yīng)的準(zhǔn)周期得到再次識(shí)別,增強(qiáng)了結(jié)論的可信度。研究表明:從1991年1月-2011年12月的樣本期間來看,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)供給彈性不足;貨幣因素在房?jī)r(jià)形成中的貢獻(xiàn)最大;長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)因素貢獻(xiàn)很小,不是驅(qū)動(dòng)房?jī)r(jià)的主要力量。房改后,上述結(jié)論依然成立,然而,貨幣供給對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)增長(zhǎng)主導(dǎo)性作用進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng);長(zhǎng)期因素的相對(duì)方差貢獻(xiàn)變大了,房?jī)r(jià)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平關(guān)系更緊密。根據(jù)結(jié)論,本研究建議房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控應(yīng)重在控制貨幣增速和加大土地供給兩方面。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the monthly data of real estate sales price index from January 1991 to December 2011 are used, combined with the latest development of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) technique. This paper identifies the inherent quasi-periodic components of the real estate market in China from multiple scales. The identification process of the quasi-cycle is the process of searching for the forming factors of housing prices. Taking the first year of the real estate reform in 1998 as the data breakpoint, the comparative study and the stability test are done. From the sample period from January 1991 to December 2011, the supply elasticity of the real estate market is insufficient, and the monetary factor contributes the most to the formation of house prices. The contribution of long-term economic growth factors is very small, not the main force driving house prices. After the housing reform, the above conclusions still hold true. However, the dominant role of money supply in housing price growth is further enhanced; the relative variance of long-term factors has increased. According to the conclusion, this study suggests that the regulation of real estate should focus on controlling the monetary growth rate and increasing the supply of land.
【作者單位】： 中山大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;中山大學(xué)創(chuàng)業(yè)學(xué)院;中山大學(xué)金融工程與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究中心;中山大學(xué)嶺南學(xué)院;中山大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)與計(jì)算科學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目“房地產(chǎn)及其金融資產(chǎn)的定價(jià)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理”(項(xiàng)目批準(zhǔn)號(hào):71231008) 廣東省珠江學(xué)者計(jì)劃(2010) 廣東省高等學(xué)校高層次人才項(xiàng)目(2011)資助
【分類號(hào)】：F293.3;F224

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本文編號(hào)：1692634