本文選題：蘭州市房地產(chǎn)市場　切入點(diǎn)：供求結(jié)構(gòu)分析　出處：《蘭州商學(xué)院》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：2012年，，一個(gè)政策年，限購、限價(jià)、限貸下的蘭州市房地產(chǎn)市場在觀望和緊張中前行；2012年，一個(gè)調(diào)整年，各大開發(fā)企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)商、轉(zhuǎn)三四線甚至轉(zhuǎn)行，各種調(diào)控的背后，是房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的顯要地位；2012年的蘭州，在市政和房地產(chǎn)的共同貢獻(xiàn)下，貫穿全城的黃河風(fēng)景線更美了，兩岸孕育的商機(jī)也隨之越來越大；2012年的蘭州，人更多了，車更擠了，繁榮的背后，房地產(chǎn)市場機(jī)會與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并存。 在此背景下，本文以市場機(jī)制的主體——供求機(jī)制為切入點(diǎn)，運(yùn)用大量的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和市場調(diào)研信息對蘭州市房地產(chǎn)市場的運(yùn)行情況展開研究。 針對房地產(chǎn)市場運(yùn)行的規(guī)律、周期波動、宏觀調(diào)控等問題，我國學(xué)者從一般均衡的角度取得了很多的研究成果。瓦爾拉斯一般均衡描述的是經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中的理想態(tài)勢，它提出了一系列嚴(yán)格的假設(shè)前提，認(rèn)為價(jià)格具有充分的彈性，市場是完美的，可以迅速自動出清，最終達(dá)到供求均衡的狀態(tài)。 但在現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境中，尤其是房地產(chǎn)市場，非均衡理論可以提供更為接近經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)實(shí)的假設(shè)條件:1、廣義均衡；2、價(jià)格剛性；3、數(shù)量調(diào)整和雙重決策；4、收入約束；5、非均衡價(jià)格交換。在非均衡狀態(tài)下，市場的資源配置無法達(dá)到最優(yōu)，效率低下，社會存在福利損失，所以政府應(yīng)當(dāng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行施加影響，將市場的非均衡程度降到最低以提高市場運(yùn)行的效率。 目前在對蘭州市房地產(chǎn)市場的研究中，基于均衡理論的研究文獻(xiàn)比較多，但是基于非均衡理論的實(shí)證研究還比較少。本文在總結(jié)前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)資料和市場調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)對1998—2011年間的蘭州市住宅商品房和辦公樓商品房市場進(jìn)行了非均衡分析。建立了非均衡計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型，其中有效需求方程采用市區(qū)年末非農(nóng)人口、城市居民人均可支配收入和房地產(chǎn)平均銷售價(jià)格作為解釋變量，有效供給方程采用GDP、房地產(chǎn)平均銷售價(jià)格和市區(qū)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額作為解釋變量，宏觀市場聚合方程采用了雙曲線聚合方程。通過非均衡度的指標(biāo)并依據(jù)歷史數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析，得出蘭州市商品房市場不同階段供求失衡的情況和原因。 文章最后綜合運(yùn)用非均衡理論和前面定量分析的結(jié)果，針對住宅商品房市場和辦公樓商品房市場在非均衡運(yùn)行過程中出現(xiàn)的問題分別提出了宏觀調(diào)控建議。期望可以為政策制定者、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)、消費(fèi)者等市場參與主體更為深入的理解房地產(chǎn)市場供求的變化規(guī)律、影響因素、發(fā)展趨勢提供參考，從而為他們的市場交易行為提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In 2012, the real estate market in Lanzhou City, a policy year with limited purchase, price and loan restrictions, moved forward amid wait-and-see and tension; in 2012, in an adjustment year, major development enterprises switched to business, third and fourth lines, or even jobs. Behind all kinds of regulation and control, Lanzhou in 2012, thanks to the joint contribution of municipal and real estate, the Yellow River landscape running through the city has become more and more beautiful, and the business opportunities created by the two sides of the strait have also increased. In 2012, Lanzhou, More people, more crowded cars, the prosperity behind the real estate market opportunities and risks coexist. Under this background, this paper takes the main body of market mechanism-supply and demand mechanism as the starting point, using a large number of statistical data and market research information to study the operation of real estate market in Lanzhou. In view of the law of real estate market operation, periodic fluctuation, macro-control and so on, Chinese scholars have obtained a lot of research results from the angle of general equilibrium. It puts forward a series of strict assumptions that price has sufficient elasticity, the market is perfect, can be cleared quickly and automatically, and finally reach the state of equilibrium between supply and demand. But in the real economic environment, especially in the real estate market, The disequilibrium theory can provide a hypothesis that is closer to economic reality: 1, generalized equilibrium 2, price rigidity 3, quantity adjustment and double decision 4, income constraint 5, disequilibrium price exchange. The resources allocation of the market cannot reach the optimum, the efficiency is low, the society has welfare loss, so the government should exert the influence on the economic operation, reduce the market disequilibrium degree to the minimum, in order to improve the efficiency of the market operation. At present, there are many researches on Lanzhou real estate market based on equilibrium theory, but there are few empirical studies based on disequilibrium theory. Based on the statistical data and market survey data, this paper analyzes the non-equilibrium market of commercial housing and office building in Lanzhou from 1998 to 2011. A non-equilibrium econometric model is established, in which the effective demand equation is based on the non-agricultural population at the end of the urban area. Per capita disposable income of urban residents and average real estate sales price are taken as explanatory variables, GDP-based effective supply equation, average real estate sales price and urban real estate development investment are used as explanatory variables. The hyperbolic polymerization equation is adopted in the macro market aggregation equation. By analyzing the index of disequilibrium degree and historical data, the situation and reasons of the imbalance between supply and demand in different stages of the commercial housing market in Lanzhou City are obtained. At the end of the paper, the disequilibrium theory and the results of the previous quantitative analysis are used synthetically. In view of the problems in the non-equilibrium operation of the commercial housing market and the office building market respectively, this paper puts forward some macro-control suggestions. It is expected to be for the policy makers, the real estate development enterprises, Consumers and other market participants have a deeper understanding of the changing law of supply and demand of real estate market, influence factors and development trends to provide reference for their market trading behavior to provide a basis for decision-making.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州商學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.27

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