本文選題：管理者過度自信　切入點：股利分配行為　出處：《北京工商大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：現(xiàn)金股利分配行為是上市公司是否分配股利及分配方案設(shè)計與討論的各利益主體行為。如何制定現(xiàn)金股利政策關(guān)系到企業(yè)、債權(quán)人、債權(quán)人等多方市場參與主體的利益，其在本質(zhì)上體現(xiàn)了不同市場參與者之間以合作和競爭的方式相互博弈的結(jié)果，而管理者作為上市公司現(xiàn)金股利分配行為的主要執(zhí)行主體之一，管理者過度自信必然會影響到現(xiàn)金股利分配行為。中國資本市場起步較晚但發(fā)展迅速，上市公司在現(xiàn)金股利分配上的非理性行為尤為明顯，，市場上充斥著不分配、超能力派現(xiàn)和高送轉(zhuǎn)等異�，F(xiàn)象。根據(jù)傳統(tǒng)的基于理性范式的股利理論已無法完全解釋這些股利分配中的異�，F(xiàn)象，這迫切需要學(xué)者挖掘出中國上市公司的股利政策的一個全新的研究視角，對上市公司現(xiàn)金股利分配行為做出全新的闡釋。 基于心理學(xué)研究成果對經(jīng)濟人假設(shè)的放松和行為公司金融的發(fā)展，經(jīng)濟人非理性假設(shè)被引入到公司現(xiàn)金股利分配行為的研究領(lǐng)域，對現(xiàn)金股利分配的各種異�，F(xiàn)象表現(xiàn)出了強大的解釋力。非理性是人類心理與行為偏差的重要特征，是管理層的一種普遍現(xiàn)象。目前我國上市公司大部分都是由國有企業(yè)改制而來，存在公司治理結(jié)構(gòu)不完善，國有產(chǎn)權(quán)所有者的虛置，“一股獨大”與“內(nèi)部人控制”等問題。公司內(nèi)部治理機制不健全、外部治理機制幾乎缺失的條件下，上市公司管理者在現(xiàn)金股利決策行為中扮演著絕對主導(dǎo)的角色，管理者非理性表現(xiàn)得更為突出，嚴(yán)重影響了上市公司的績效和創(chuàng)值能力。管理者非理性的研究內(nèi)容較多，考慮過度自信是管理者非理性行為中最為普遍、得到最為系統(tǒng)確認(rèn)的行為偏差，本研究將把管理者非理性行為僅局限于過度自信行為，進而研究管理者過度自信是否會對現(xiàn)金股利分配行為的影響及影響路徑。 本文首先對股利政策及管理者過度自信進行了介紹和界定，隨后對各學(xué)者的現(xiàn)金股利政策研究按照理性范式及行為范式進行分類及整理，為下文的研究奠定理論基礎(chǔ)；同時對我國現(xiàn)金股利分配現(xiàn)狀及特點進行了分析；運用理論模型分析，在相關(guān)假設(shè)及上市公司管理者決策函數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上，推導(dǎo)出上市公司管理者過度自信對現(xiàn)金股利分配行為的影響路徑；最后以中國A股上市公司2005-2011年數(shù)據(jù)，對上市公司管理者過度自信與現(xiàn)金股利分配行為之間的關(guān)系進行了Logistic模型和OLS模型的實證檢驗。 理論模型和實證研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，上市公司管理者過度自信顯著影響現(xiàn)金股利分配行為，上市公司管理者過度自信更傾向于不分配現(xiàn)金股利或少分配現(xiàn)金股利，且上市公司管理者過度自信程度越強，現(xiàn)金股利支付水平越低，管理者過度自信的上市公司更傾向于實行較為保守的現(xiàn)金股利分配行為。
[Abstract]:The behavior of cash dividend distribution is the behavior of the main body of interest whether or not the listed company allocates dividend and the design and discussion of the distribution scheme. How to formulate the policy of cash dividend is related to the interests of enterprises, creditors, creditors and other multi-party market participants, such as enterprises, creditors, creditors and so on. In essence, it reflects the result of game between different market participants in the way of cooperation and competition, and the manager is one of the main executive bodies of cash dividend distribution behavior of listed companies. Overconfidence of managers will inevitably affect the behavior of cash dividend distribution. China's capital market starts late but develops rapidly. The irrational behavior of listed companies in cash dividend distribution is particularly obvious, and the market is full of non-distribution. According to the traditional dividend theory based on rational paradigm, the abnormal phenomena in dividend distribution can not be fully explained. It is urgent for scholars to dig out a new perspective of dividend policy of listed companies in China and to explain the behavior of cash dividend distribution of listed companies. Based on the relaxation of the hypothesis of economic man and the development of corporate finance, the irrational hypothesis of economic man is introduced into the research field of the behavior of corporate cash dividend distribution. Various abnormal phenomena of cash dividend distribution show a strong explanatory power. Irrationality is an important feature of human psychological and behavioral deviations. It is a common phenomenon of management. At present, most of the listed companies in China come from the reform of state-owned enterprises, and the corporate governance structure is not perfect. Under the condition that the internal governance mechanism of the company is not perfect and the external governance mechanism is almost missing, Managers of listed companies play an absolute leading role in cash dividend decision-making, and the irrational performance of managers is more prominent, which seriously affects the performance and value creation ability of listed companies. Taking into account that overconfidence is the most common behavior of managers and the most systematically confirmed behavior deviation, this study will limit the irrational behavior of managers to overconfidence behavior. Then the paper studies whether the manager overconfidence will affect the behavior of cash dividend distribution and the influence path. This paper first introduces and defines the dividend policy and managers' overconfidence, then classifies and arranges the research of cash dividend policy according to rational paradigm and behavioral paradigm, which lays a theoretical foundation for the following research; At the same time, the present situation and characteristics of cash dividend distribution in China are analyzed, and the theoretical model is used to analyze, on the basis of relevant assumptions and the decision function of the managers of listed companies, The influence of overconfidence of managers on the behavior of cash dividend distribution in listed companies is deduced. Finally, the data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2005 to 2011 are given. The relationship between manager overconfidence and cash dividend distribution behavior in listed companies is tested by Logistic model and OLS model. The theoretical model and empirical results show that overconfidence of managers of listed companies significantly affects the behavior of cash dividend distribution, and managers overconfidence of listed companies tend not to distribute cash dividends or to distribute cash dividends less. Moreover, the stronger the degree of overconfidence of managers, the lower the level of cash dividend payment, and the more conservative behavior of cash dividend distribution is preferred for overconfident managers.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F832.51;F272.9

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