本文選題：房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)　切入點(diǎn)：財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警　出處：《中原工學(xué)院》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)是人類生產(chǎn)、生活和一切社會(huì)活動(dòng)最基本的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)，其與經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、文化發(fā)展關(guān)系密切，在整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)體系中屬于先導(dǎo)性、基礎(chǔ)性產(chǎn)業(yè)，處于主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)地位，起到十分重要的作用。房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)較其他行業(yè)又有著獨(dú)特的特征，這些特征決定了房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)屬于高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、高報(bào)酬的行業(yè)，受宏觀環(huán)境較為敏感，使得其本身財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大。近年來，國(guó)家對(duì)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的宏觀調(diào)控政策層出不窮，這無疑加大了房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)抵抗財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的壓力，多數(shù)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)面臨著巨大的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在這一研究背景下，對(duì)于研究房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警及防范對(duì)于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文在介紹房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論概述的基礎(chǔ)上，闡述了房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的特點(diǎn)及對(duì)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)現(xiàn)狀和成因進(jìn)行了分析。在綜述國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上本文選用因子分析和二元logistic回歸法構(gòu)建出了房地產(chǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，首先利用中文版SPSS19.0對(duì)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行因子分析，提取出公共因子，然后把各公共因子的方差貢獻(xiàn)率作為權(quán)數(shù)，建立起房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合指標(biāo)方程，該綜合指標(biāo)能夠體現(xiàn)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)現(xiàn)狀，衡量房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并對(duì)所選樣本做了綜合財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的排名；在因子分析的基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)公共因子又做了logistic回歸，建立出房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型，，該預(yù)警模型能夠有效的預(yù)測(cè)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)發(fā)生財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的可能。利用本文所建的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)對(duì)深圳市國(guó)際企業(yè)股份有限公司進(jìn)行了財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警，并對(duì)該企業(yè)進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)該企業(yè)面臨較大的償債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，針對(duì)這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提出了解決和防范建議。最后，在總結(jié)全文的基礎(chǔ)上根據(jù)本文所建立的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，對(duì)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)建提出建議。
[Abstract]:Real estate is the most basic material basis of human production, life and all social activities. It is closely related to economic, social and cultural development. It is a leading and basic industry in the whole national economic system. The real estate industry has unique characteristics compared with other industries. These characteristics determine that real estate enterprises are high risk, high pay industries and sensitive to the macro environment. In recent years, the state's macroeconomic regulation and control policies on the real estate industry have emerged in endlessly, which undoubtedly increased the pressure on real estate enterprises to resist financial risks. Most real estate enterprises are faced with huge financial risks. Under this research background, it is of great practical significance to study the financial risk early warning and prevention of real estate enterprises. On the basis of introducing the theory of financial risk in real estate enterprises, This paper expounds the characteristics of real estate enterprises and analyzes the present situation and causes of financial risks of real estate enterprises. On the basis of summarizing the relevant researches of scholars at home and abroad, this paper selects factor analysis and binary logistic regression method to construct a real estate early warning system. Firstly, the Chinese version of SPSS19.0 is used to analyze the financial indexes of real estate enterprises, and the common factors are extracted. Then the contribution rate of variance of the public factors is taken as weights to establish the comprehensive index equation of financial risk of real estate enterprises. This comprehensive index can reflect the present financial situation of the enterprise, measure the financial risk of the real estate enterprise, and make the rank of the comprehensive financial risk to the selected sample, and make the logistic regression to the public factor on the basis of factor analysis. Establish the financial risk early warning model of real estate enterprise, This early-warning model can effectively predict the possibility of financial crisis in real estate enterprises. Using the financial early-warning system established in this paper, the financial risk warning of Shenzhen International Enterprise Co., Ltd is carried out, and the financial analysis of this enterprise is carried out. It is found that the enterprise is faced with larger debt repayment risk, management risk and investment decision risk, and puts forward some suggestions to solve these risks. Finally, based on the summary of the full text, the financial risk early warning system is established in this paper. To the real estate enterprise financial risk early warning system construction proposed the proposal.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中原工學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F299.233.4

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

中國(guó)期刊全文數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù) 前10條

1 梁惠蘭;;企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別與防范[J];北方經(jīng)濟(jì);2006年12期

2 劉恩祿 ,湯谷良;論財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理[J];北京商學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);1989年01期

3 宋力,李晶;上市公司財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的實(shí)證研究[J];財(cái)經(jīng)論叢(浙江財(cái)經(jīng)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào));2004年01期

4 侯紅兵;樹立財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)觀念　健全財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理[J];財(cái)經(jīng)論叢(浙江財(cái)經(jīng)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào));1995年05期

5 張友棠;財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)管理研究[J];財(cái)會(huì)通訊;2004年01期

6 李微微;許媛鴻;;風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)值在房地產(chǎn)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型中的應(yīng)用[J];財(cái)會(huì)通訊;2009年05期

7 胡海濤;高秉學(xué);;上市公司財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警實(shí)證研究——以房地產(chǎn)業(yè)為例[J];財(cái)會(huì)通訊;2010年06期

8 張麗麗;姜麗莎;王小紅;;房地產(chǎn)業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警分析[J];財(cái)會(huì)通訊;2010年11期

9 李慧;;企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的技術(shù)性防范方法[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)理人;2006年11期

10 李昊禹;;房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法[J];大慶石油學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2009年05期

本文編號(hào)：1626047