本文關(guān)鍵詞： 企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估 剩余收益模型 其他信息 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)因素　出處：《華僑大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，證券規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大，投資者隊(duì)伍也不斷壯大。股票投資雖然高收益，但也高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，如果能較為準(zhǔn)確地進(jìn)行投資分析，預(yù)測(cè)出股票的價(jià)格趨勢(shì)和價(jià)值發(fā)現(xiàn)，就很可能是股票市場(chǎng)投資成功關(guān)鍵的一步。權(quán)益估值研究有利于減小股票市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)，降低金融市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，眾多的研究學(xué)者已研究證明剩余收益模型比其他模型對(duì)股票價(jià)格有更好的解釋能力。基于以上考慮，本文選擇了剩余收益模型作為研究對(duì)象。但是，剩余收益模型中的其他信息仍然是模型當(dāng)前研究的難題之一，Ohlson（1995）剩余收益模型中也沒(méi)有說(shuō)明其他信息的具體度量方法，很多后來(lái)學(xué)者在對(duì)剩余收益模型進(jìn)行研究時(shí)，都直接忽略掉這一項(xiàng)。其他信息到底是哪些信息，又會(huì)對(duì)模型產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響，研究剩余收益模型時(shí)考慮其他信息的研究方法目前在國(guó)內(nèi)尚不多見(jiàn)。 本文從一個(gè)新的視角區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)信息，尋找區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)來(lái)度量其他信息，在已有研究的基礎(chǔ)之上，用不同的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)分別替代模型中的其他信息，考察考慮其他信息后是否能夠提高模型對(duì)股票價(jià)格的解釋能力。以我國(guó)2009-2011年滬深兩市主板A股上市公司為研究樣本，，首先建立股票價(jià)格對(duì)每股凈資產(chǎn)、每股剩余收益的回歸模型，然后，當(dāng)考慮其他信息時(shí)，用不同的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)代替其他信息變量，建立股票價(jià)格對(duì)每股凈資產(chǎn)、每股剩余收益和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的回歸模型，并將前后模型的回歸結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比，考察不同的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)因素可能對(duì)股票價(jià)格存在的影響。從實(shí)證結(jié)果來(lái)看，考慮其他信息后的模型對(duì)股票價(jià)格的解釋能力卻有提高，這說(shuō)明剩余收益模型中其他信息的影響力是存在的，將其他信息忽略掉是不合適的。
[Abstract]:With the development of market economy and the expansion of the scale of securities, the group of investors is also growing. Although the stock investment is of high yield, it is also high risk. If we can accurately analyze the investment, we can predict the price trend and value of the stock. This is likely to be a key step in the success of investment in the stock market. Research on equity valuation is conducive to reducing volatility in the stock market and reducing risks in the financial market. Many researchers have proved that the residual return model has better explanation ability to the stock price than other models. Based on the above considerations, this paper chooses the residual return model as the research object. The other information in the residual income model is still one of the difficult problems in the current study of the model. (Ohlsonian 1995) there is also no specific measurement method for other information in the residual income model. Many scholars later studied the residual income model. What kind of information is the other information, and what kind of influence it will have on the model, the research method of considering other information when studying the residual income model is still rare in our country at present. From a new perspective of regional economic information, this paper looks for regional economic indicators to measure other information, on the basis of existing research, using different regional economic indicators to replace other information in the model. Considering other information, this paper investigates whether the model can improve the ability of explaining the stock price. Taking the A-share listed companies on the main board of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in 2009-2011 as the research sample, the paper first establishes the stock price to net assets per share. Then, when other information is considered, the regression model of stock price to net assets per share, residual earnings per share and regional economic indicators is established by using different regional economic indicators instead of other information variables. By comparing the regression results of the models before and after, the paper investigates the possible influence of different regional economic factors on stock prices. From the empirical results, the explanatory power of the models considering other information to the stock prices is improved. This indicates that the influence of other information in the residual income model exists and it is inappropriate to ignore other information.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51

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