本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn) 價格風險 預警機制　出處：《華僑大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來，廈門市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)蓬勃發(fā)展，商品房價格也節(jié)節(jié)上漲。本文從房地產(chǎn)泡沫理論方面著手對廈門市房地產(chǎn)市場進行研究，通過回顧房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展歷史和市場運行統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，對房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展狀況進行初步分析；其次，采用指標體系法，通過房價增長率/GDP增長率、房地產(chǎn)投資/固定資產(chǎn)總投資、房地產(chǎn)貸款增長率、待售率、房價收入比五個指標，對廈門市房地產(chǎn)價格是否偏離基本價值進行衡量，并采用這五個單一指標，運用層次分析法，構(gòu)造評價房地產(chǎn)泡沫的綜合指標，對2002至2012年廈門市房地產(chǎn)市場的泡沫狀況進行實證研究，得出結(jié)論。再通過房地產(chǎn)市場供求現(xiàn)狀分析，揭示廈門市商品房供需結(jié)構(gòu)矛盾，對房價上漲、產(chǎn)生泡沫的原因進行分析。 通過分析和論證，本文得出的結(jié)論是：近年來廈門市房地產(chǎn)市場結(jié)構(gòu)不合理，供求不平衡，商品房價格虛高，市場存在一定的泡沫成分，必須警惕泡沫破裂帶來的風險。在市場供大于求的情況下，壟斷和投機是房價上漲的主要原因。目前對廈門市房地產(chǎn)市場的分析多數(shù)屬于定性分析。本文力求用數(shù)字說話，從定量角度對商品房價格泡沫指數(shù)進行測度，揭示房地產(chǎn)泡沫的危害，提出建立預防泡沫破裂的預警機制，針對目前廈門市房地產(chǎn)市場存在的問題，，提出宏觀調(diào)控政策建議，為房地產(chǎn)市場特別是商品住宅市場的健康發(fā)展提供參考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate industry of Xiamen has been booming, and the price of commercial housing has also been rising. This paper studies the real estate market in Xiamen from the theory of real estate bubble, and reviews the history of real estate development and the statistical data of market operation. The development of the real estate market is preliminarily analyzed. Secondly, by using the index system method, through the five indicators of the growth rate of house price / GDP, the real estate investment / total fixed asset investment, the growth rate of real estate loans, the rate of pending sale and the ratio of house price to income, This paper measures whether the real estate price of Xiamen deviates from the basic value, and uses these five single indexes to construct a comprehensive index to evaluate the real estate bubble. This paper makes an empirical study on the bubble situation of the real estate market in Xiamen from 2002 to 2012, and draws a conclusion. Through the analysis of the present situation of supply and demand in the real estate market, it reveals the contradiction between the supply and demand structure of commercial housing in Xiamen and the rise of housing prices. Causes of bubbles are analyzed. Through analysis and argumentation, the paper draws the following conclusions: in recent years, the structure of real estate market in Xiamen is unreasonable, the supply and demand are not balanced, the price of commercial housing is false, and there is a certain bubble component in the market. We must be on guard against the risk of bubble bursting. Monopoly and speculation are the main reasons for the rise of house prices when the supply exceeds the demand. At present, most of the analysis of the real estate market in Xiamen belongs to qualitative analysis. This paper measures the index of commodity house price bubble from a quantitative angle, reveals the harm of real estate bubble, puts forward an early warning mechanism to prevent the bubble from bursting, and puts forward some policy suggestions for macro-control in view of the problems existing in the real estate market in Xiamen at present. For the real estate market, especially the healthy development of the commercial housing market to provide a reference.
【學位授予單位】：華僑大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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