本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn) 價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 預(yù)警機(jī)制　出處：《華僑大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)，廈門(mén)市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)蓬勃發(fā)展，商品房?jī)r(jià)格也節(jié)節(jié)上漲。本文從房地產(chǎn)泡沫理論方面著手對(duì)廈門(mén)市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行研究，通過(guò)回顧房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展歷史和市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行初步分析；其次，采用指標(biāo)體系法，通過(guò)房?jī)r(jià)增長(zhǎng)率/GDP增長(zhǎng)率、房地產(chǎn)投資/固定資產(chǎn)總投資、房地產(chǎn)貸款增長(zhǎng)率、待售率、房?jī)r(jià)收入比五個(gè)指標(biāo)，對(duì)廈門(mén)市房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格是否偏離基本價(jià)值進(jìn)行衡量，并采用這五個(gè)單一指標(biāo)，運(yùn)用層次分析法，構(gòu)造評(píng)價(jià)房地產(chǎn)泡沫的綜合指標(biāo)，對(duì)2002至2012年廈門(mén)市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的泡沫狀況進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，得出結(jié)論。再通過(guò)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)供求現(xiàn)狀分析，揭示廈門(mén)市商品房供需結(jié)構(gòu)矛盾，對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)上漲、產(chǎn)生泡沫的原因進(jìn)行分析。 通過(guò)分析和論證，本文得出的結(jié)論是：近年來(lái)廈門(mén)市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理，供求不平衡，商品房?jī)r(jià)格虛高，市場(chǎng)存在一定的泡沫成分，必須警惕泡沫破裂帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在市場(chǎng)供大于求的情況下，壟斷和投機(jī)是房?jī)r(jià)上漲的主要原因。目前對(duì)廈門(mén)市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的分析多數(shù)屬于定性分析。本文力求用數(shù)字說(shuō)話，從定量角度對(duì)商品房?jī)r(jià)格泡沫指數(shù)進(jìn)行測(cè)度，揭示房地產(chǎn)泡沫的危害，提出建立預(yù)防泡沫破裂的預(yù)警機(jī)制，針對(duì)目前廈門(mén)市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)存在的問(wèn)題，，提出宏觀調(diào)控政策建議，為房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)特別是商品住宅市場(chǎng)的健康發(fā)展提供參考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate industry of Xiamen has been booming, and the price of commercial housing has also been rising. This paper studies the real estate market in Xiamen from the theory of real estate bubble, and reviews the history of real estate development and the statistical data of market operation. The development of the real estate market is preliminarily analyzed. Secondly, by using the index system method, through the five indicators of the growth rate of house price / GDP, the real estate investment / total fixed asset investment, the growth rate of real estate loans, the rate of pending sale and the ratio of house price to income, This paper measures whether the real estate price of Xiamen deviates from the basic value, and uses these five single indexes to construct a comprehensive index to evaluate the real estate bubble. This paper makes an empirical study on the bubble situation of the real estate market in Xiamen from 2002 to 2012, and draws a conclusion. Through the analysis of the present situation of supply and demand in the real estate market, it reveals the contradiction between the supply and demand structure of commercial housing in Xiamen and the rise of housing prices. Causes of bubbles are analyzed. Through analysis and argumentation, the paper draws the following conclusions: in recent years, the structure of real estate market in Xiamen is unreasonable, the supply and demand are not balanced, the price of commercial housing is false, and there is a certain bubble component in the market. We must be on guard against the risk of bubble bursting. Monopoly and speculation are the main reasons for the rise of house prices when the supply exceeds the demand. At present, most of the analysis of the real estate market in Xiamen belongs to qualitative analysis. This paper measures the index of commodity house price bubble from a quantitative angle, reveals the harm of real estate bubble, puts forward an early warning mechanism to prevent the bubble from bursting, and puts forward some policy suggestions for macro-control in view of the problems existing in the real estate market in Xiamen at present. For the real estate market, especially the healthy development of the commercial housing market to provide a reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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