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民生銀行股票價(jià)值分析

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-01-23 06:27

  本文關(guān)鍵詞: 民生銀行 EVA 價(jià)值分析 出處:《河北科技大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文 論文類型:學(xué)位論文


【摘要】:隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,我國(guó)商業(yè)得到了迅猛發(fā)展。如何衡量其真實(shí)經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)和內(nèi)在價(jià)值經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值成為新的焦點(diǎn)。本文介紹了EVA的含義和計(jì)算方法,根據(jù)商業(yè)銀行的具體情況對(duì)計(jì)算公式進(jìn)行了適當(dāng)調(diào)整,并以民生銀行股份有限公司為例詳細(xì)介紹了該公司經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值的計(jì)算過程,又以EVA值為基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估。 民生銀行作為國(guó)內(nèi)主要股份制商業(yè)銀行,近幾年一直有著良好的經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī),截至2012年年末,集團(tuán)資產(chǎn)總額、負(fù)債總額均突破三萬億元大關(guān);其中凈資產(chǎn)收益率達(dá)到了25.24%;以手續(xù)費(fèi)及傭金收入為主的中間收入占總營(yíng)業(yè)收入的比重不斷增大。但公司的資產(chǎn)管理效率較低,,還需要改善。 分別運(yùn)用EVA估值法和股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流量估值模型對(duì)民生銀行進(jìn)行了價(jià)值評(píng)估,由于商業(yè)銀行不同于一般的工商業(yè)企業(yè),在計(jì)算過程中對(duì)兩個(gè)模型的一般計(jì)算公式進(jìn)行了適當(dāng)調(diào)整,確定了民生銀行的企業(yè)價(jià)值。 本文還對(duì)民生銀行所處的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境及其流動(dòng)性和資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量情況分別進(jìn)行了分析說明,此外還比較分析了民生銀行近三年的貸款遷徒率以衡量商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變化程度,又民生銀行盈利能力較強(qiáng)說明公司具有一定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)彌補(bǔ)能力,所以總體來看民生銀行近期不會(huì)產(chǎn)生任何經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 通過與股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流模型的估值結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較分析,雖然兩種模型的計(jì)算方法不同,但結(jié)果都表明民生銀行現(xiàn)在的價(jià)值被完全低估。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy, Chinese business has developed rapidly. How to measure its real business performance and intrinsic value added value becomes a new focus. This paper introduces the meaning and calculation method of EVA. According to the specific situation of commercial banks, the calculation formula is adjusted appropriately, and taking Minsheng Bank Co., Ltd. as an example, the calculation process of economic added value of the company is introduced in detail. On the basis of EVA value, enterprise value evaluation is carried out. Minsheng Bank, as the main joint-stock commercial bank in China, has a good operating performance in recent years. As of the end of 2012, the total assets and liabilities of the group exceeded 3 tillion yuan. The rate of return on net assets has reached 25.24; The proportion of intermediate income to total operating income is increasing, but the efficiency of asset management of the company is low, and it needs to be improved. Respectively using EVA valuation method and equity free cash flow valuation model to evaluate the value of Minsheng Bank, because commercial banks are different from the general industrial and commercial enterprises. In the course of calculation, the general formulas of the two models are adjusted appropriately, and the enterprise value of Minsheng Bank is determined. This paper also analyzes the market environment, liquidity and asset quality of Minsheng Bank. In addition, the paper also compares and analyzes the loan migration rate of Minsheng Bank in the past three years to measure the degree of risk change of commercial banks, and the strong profitability of Minsheng Bank shows that the company has a certain capacity to make up for risks. So overall, Minsheng Bank will not produce any operating risks in the near future. Compared with the valuation results of the equity free cash flow model, although the two models have different calculation methods, the results show that the value of Minsheng Bank is completely undervalued.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:河北科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號(hào)】:F832.33;F832.51

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