本文關鍵詞： 證券分析師 上市公司 盈利預測 誤差　出處：《浙江工商大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：我國證券市場雖歷經近20年的發(fā)展,但仍處于“弱式有效市場”之中,對于中小投資者更是如此。多數中小投資者因缺乏有效信息和專業(yè)知識,他們對上市公司的分析更多依賴于證券分析師的業(yè)績預測。由于證券分析師具有分析能力優(yōu)勢以及信息渠道優(yōu)勢,他們的預測結果往往成為許多中小投資者的決策依據,尤其隨著近幾年國內宏觀經濟的大幅波動,越來越多的中小投資者關注他們的預測分析。那么,專業(yè)分析人員的預測結果可靠嗎?他們預測的誤差有多大?他們的預測是否存在誘導行為?對于這些問題,目前國內鮮有學者進行系統(tǒng)研究,相關研究僅局限于個別行業(yè)和較短的時間跨度,這使得其研究結論缺乏實質性指導意義。 基于上述背景,本研究通過對以往文獻的系統(tǒng)梳理,確定了盈利預測誤差的度量標準,并歷經兩個多月的時間從國泰安數據庫(CSMAR)、長城證券軟件、國家統(tǒng)計局網站、中國證券業(yè)協(xié)會網站中收集了2007-2011年證券分析師對十大行業(yè)上市公司當年上半年的盈利預測數據,運用統(tǒng)計軟件EXCEL和EViews6.0對這些盈利預測誤差進行了系統(tǒng)分析,在此基礎上探討影響各行業(yè)預測誤差差異的原因,從而為中小投資者進行合理的投資決策提供必要的指導。 本研究結論主要包括以下幾點：(1)證券分析師的盈利預測關注度主要集中于鋼鐵業(yè)、銀行業(yè)、房地產業(yè)等市值大的行業(yè),而對農業(yè)等市值較小的行業(yè)的關注度明顯偏低；(2)宏觀經濟形勢會影響證券分析師對上市公司的盈利預測誤差,經濟形勢較好的年份的預測誤差明顯低于不好的年份；(3)證券分析師對不同行業(yè)的預測誤差具有-定的差異性,其中,銀行業(yè)、公路管理及養(yǎng)護業(yè)的盈利預測更準確,而對鋼鐵業(yè)、電力生產業(yè)、汽車制造業(yè)的預測誤差波動幅度較大；(4)參股券商的預測從總體上要比同公司其他非參股券商的更準確,但與其對同行業(yè)其它非參股公司的預測并沒有明顯的差異。 本研究的創(chuàng)新點主要體現在三個方面：(1)在研究內容上深入分析近五年來證券分析師對我國上市公司盈利預測誤差情況,豐富了我國專業(yè)分析人員對上市公司盈利預測的研究；(2)系統(tǒng)研究了證券分析師對不同行業(yè)的盈利預測誤差,從而在一定程度上填補了國內對證券分析師盈利預測行業(yè)差異研究的空白；(3)在度量證券分析師對上市公司進行的盈利預測誤差標準上首次加入了股權的指標,排除了因股權變動而造成了非人為預測誤差。 盡管本研究進行了大量數據搜集和分析,但仍存在一些局限性：(1)本研究并未選取我國所有的上市公司作為樣本,只是選取其中具有代表性的10個行業(yè)以及每個行業(yè)中規(guī)模最大的前10家公司；(2)由于數據收集困難,本研究很難搜集過去20年的預測數據,而只選擇2007-2011年期間五年預測數據。這些一定程度上會影響研究結論的準確性。
[Abstract]:Although China's securities market has been developing for nearly 20 years, it is still in the "weak efficient market", especially for the small and medium-sized investors, most of whom lack effective information and professional knowledge. Their analysis of listed companies depends more on the performance forecasts of securities analysts, who have the advantage of analytical ability and information channel. Their prediction results often become the basis for many small and medium-sized investors to make decisions, especially with the domestic macroeconomic fluctuations in recent years, more and more small and medium-sized investors pay attention to their prediction and analysis. Are professional analysts' predictions reliable? How much error are they predicting? Does their prediction have induced behavior? At present, few domestic scholars do systematic research on these problems, and the related research is limited to individual industries and a short time span, which makes the research conclusions lack of substantive significance. Based on the above background, this study through a systematic review of previous literature, determine the measurement of profit prediction error, and after more than two months from the Cathay Pacific database CSMAR). The Great Wall Securities Software, the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, and the website of the China Securities Association collected profit forecasts for the first half of the year from 2007 to 2011. This paper makes a systematic analysis of these profit prediction errors by using statistical software EXCEL and EViews6.0, and then discusses the reasons that affect the difference of forecast errors in various industries. So as to provide necessary guidance for small and medium investors to make reasonable investment decisions. The main conclusions of this study include the following points: 1) the focus of earnings forecast of securities analysts is mainly focused on the steel industry, banking, real estate and other big industries such as market value. But to the agriculture and so on market value small industry's attention degree is obviously low; (2) the macroeconomic situation will affect the profit forecast error of the securities analysts, and the forecast error in the year of better economic situation is obviously lower than that in the bad year; (3) the forecast error of securities analysts to different industries has definite difference, among them, the profit forecast of banking, highway management and maintenance industry is more accurate, but to steel industry and electric power industry. The prediction error of automobile manufacturing industry fluctuates greatly; 4) the forecast of stockholders is more accurate than that of other non-equity firms, but there is no obvious difference between the forecast of other non-equity companies in the same industry and that of other non-equity companies in the same industry. The innovation of this study is mainly reflected in three aspects: 1) in the content of the research in-depth analysis of the recent five years securities analysts on the earnings forecast error of listed companies in China. It enriches the research on earnings forecast of listed companies by professional analysts in our country. (2) this paper systematically studies the profit forecast error of securities analysts to different industries, thus filling the gap of domestic research on the industry difference of securities analysts' profit forecast to some extent; For the first time, the index of equity is added to measure the error standard of stock analysts' earnings forecast to listed companies, which excludes the non-artificial forecast error caused by the change of stock rights. Although this study has conducted a lot of data collection and analysis, there are still some limitations in this study. Only select the representative of 10 industries and each industry in the largest 10 companies; 2) due to data collection difficulties, it is difficult for this study to collect forecast data for the past 20 years. Only five-year projections for the period 2007-2011 were selected, which in part affected the accuracy of the study's findings.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工商大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.51;F224

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