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  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 宏觀經(jīng)濟 房地產(chǎn)行業(yè) VAR模型 因果檢驗 動態(tài)影響　出處：《山東大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)與宏觀經(jīng)濟的相互影響是通過某些變量進行傳導的,解釋這一傳導機制以及傳導變量的作用程度有助于提高房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)參與者的應變能力。從微觀層面上,個體購房者能夠依據(jù)國家對房地產(chǎn)市場的宏觀調(diào)控政策及時調(diào)整購買行為,選擇適當?shù)臅r機進行購買或銷售。從宏觀層面上,研究房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與宏觀經(jīng)濟的作用機制是研究房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,也是研究國民經(jīng)濟規(guī)劃的需要,同時該研究能夠為政府的宏觀調(diào)控提供參考性依據(jù),為政府適時調(diào)整房地產(chǎn)業(yè)乃至國民經(jīng)濟并使其持續(xù)健康發(fā)展提供有效的理論依據(jù)。 文章首先建立宏觀經(jīng)濟與房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)作用機制的概念模型,在概念模型的基礎上通過采集我國宏觀經(jīng)濟季度數(shù)據(jù)與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)季度數(shù)據(jù),分別建立向量白回歸(VAR)模型,并運用Granger因果分析、脈沖響應函數(shù)及方差分解方法,研究宏觀經(jīng)濟變量與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)變量的相互作用過程。 研究結(jié)論包括：國內(nèi)貸款額在研究宏觀經(jīng)濟與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作用機制的過程中起到承前啟后的作用；滯后效應的存在加劇了宏觀經(jīng)濟與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)相互作用的復雜程度；貨幣政策對房價的調(diào)控效果并不理想：房價波動以及房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額的多寡均缺乏宏觀經(jīng)濟基本面的支撐；房價的波動并不以有效需求為支撐；房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額能夠在當期迅速推動GDP增長,但推動作用不具備可持續(xù)性；貨幣供應量的波動較多地受到金融市場的影響,而房地產(chǎn)業(yè)指標對貨幣供應量波動的影響程度較��；CPI指數(shù)自身具有較大的延續(xù)性,房地產(chǎn)因素對CPI指數(shù)的影響并不十分顯著。
[Abstract]:The interaction between the real estate industry and the macro economy is conducted by some variables. Explaining this conduction mechanism and the degree of action of conduction variables can help to improve the ability of real estate industry participants to adapt. Individual buyers can adjust their purchase behavior timely according to the state's macro-control policy to the real estate market and choose the right time to purchase or sell from the macro level. To study the mechanism of real estate industry and macro economy is not only to study the development strategy of real estate industry, but also to study the needs of national economic planning. At the same time, the study can provide a reference for the government's macro-control. It provides an effective theoretical basis for the government to adjust the real estate industry and the national economy and make it develop healthily. Firstly, the paper establishes the conceptual model of the mechanism of macroeconomic and real estate industry, and collects the quarterly data of macroeconomic and real estate industry on the basis of the conceptual model. The vector white regression model is established, and the interaction process between macroeconomic variables and real estate variables is studied by using Granger causality analysis, impulse response function and variance decomposition method. The conclusions are as follows: the amount of domestic loan plays a role of connecting the past and the future in the process of studying the mechanism of macroeconomic and real estate industry; The existence of lag effect intensifies the complexity of the interaction between macro economy and real estate industry. The effect of monetary policy on housing price is not ideal: the fluctuation of house price and the amount of investment in real estate development lack the support of macroeconomic fundamentals; The fluctuation of house price is not supported by effective demand; Investment in real estate development can rapidly promote the growth of GDP in the current period, but the role of promotion is not sustainable; The fluctuation of money supply is mostly affected by the financial market, but the real estate index has little influence on the fluctuation of money supply. CPI index itself has a greater continuity, real estate factors on the CPI index is not very significant.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F124

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