本文關(guān)鍵詞： 住宅商品房市場 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué) 仿真模擬 政策實(shí)驗(yàn)　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近十年來,隨著我國城市化進(jìn)程的加快,我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位不斷提高,房地產(chǎn)市場持續(xù)發(fā)展,住房問題逐漸成為國民關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場開發(fā)規(guī)模逐年擴(kuò)大,產(chǎn)品品質(zhì)逐步提高,居民消費(fèi)理念越來越成熟,房地產(chǎn)市場向著持續(xù)、健康方向發(fā)展。但是在發(fā)展過程中依然出現(xiàn)了房價增長過快,市場過熱,市場內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)不平衡等問題。雖然政府出臺了一系列調(diào)控政策,但是市場反應(yīng)往往達(dá)不到預(yù)期目標(biāo)。如何能科學(xué)地分析房地產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、理清影響房地產(chǎn)市場的復(fù)雜要素并合理預(yù)測市場走勢、模擬政策效果成為人們研究的熱點(diǎn)問題之一。 本文以系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論為基礎(chǔ),以昆明市住宅商品房市場為研究對象,分析住宅商品房市場各參與要素的反饋關(guān)系,建立住宅商品房市場系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)仿真模型；根據(jù)昆明市2005年以來住宅商品房市場歷史數(shù)據(jù),確定模型中各變量的初始值及變量之間的函數(shù)關(guān)系。利用Vensim5.4b PLE軟件對昆明市住宅商品房市場2005年至2015年間市場供給、市場需求及市場價格發(fā)展走勢進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究；并對房地產(chǎn)行政干預(yù)政策、金融貨幣政策以及稅收政策進(jìn)行模擬實(shí)驗(yàn),分析實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果,給出政策建議。本研究對促進(jìn)昆明市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展有一定的參考意義。
[Abstract]:In the past ten years, with the acceleration of urbanization in China, the status of real estate industry in the national economy has been continuously improved, and the real estate market has continued to develop. Housing problem has gradually become the focus of national attention. Kunming real estate market development scale is expanding year by year, product quality is gradually improving, residents' consumption concept is becoming more and more mature, the real estate market is continuing. In the process of development, however, there are still some problems, such as excessive growth of house prices, overheating of the market, imbalance of the internal structure of the market, etc. Although the government has issued a series of regulation and control policies. However, the market response often fails to reach the expected goal. How to scientifically analyze the real estate structure, clarify the complex factors that affect the real estate market and reasonably predict the market trend. Simulating the effect of policy has become one of the hot issues. Based on the theory of system dynamics and taking the commercial housing market in Kunming as the research object, this paper analyzes the feedback relationship among the factors involved in the housing market. The system dynamics simulation model of commercial housing market is established. According to Kunming since 2005, the housing market history data. To determine the initial value of each variable in the model and the functional relationship between the variables. The Vensim5.4b PLE software is used to supply the housing market in Kunming from 2005 to 2015. Empirical research on market demand and market price development trend; And the real estate administrative intervention policy, financial and monetary policy and tax policy simulation experiment, analysis of the experimental results. This study has some reference significance to promote the sustainable and healthy development of real estate industry in Kunming.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;N941.3

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