本文關鍵詞：宏觀經(jīng)濟指標對中國地產(chǎn)指數(shù)的影響研究　出處：《東北財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 宏觀經(jīng)濟指標 地產(chǎn)指數(shù) 一般回歸模型 EC模型

【摘要】：在股票市場中存在著不同的行業(yè)指數(shù),每一個行業(yè)指數(shù)反應了其行業(yè)的運行狀況,所以我國地產(chǎn)指數(shù)可以反映出我國房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展狀況。眾所周知,宏觀經(jīng)濟運行的狀況對于股票市場存在重要的影響,宏觀經(jīng)濟運行的狀況可以通過宏觀經(jīng)濟指標反映。通過研究宏觀經(jīng)濟指標對于我國房地產(chǎn)指數(shù)的影響有重要意義,首先可以揭示出我國宏觀經(jīng)濟指標與我國地產(chǎn)指數(shù)的規(guī)律性的聯(lián)系。其次,可以為我國各級監(jiān)管機構(gòu)制定有關地產(chǎn)行業(yè)股票市場發(fā)展的政策提供決策依據(jù)。最后,可以為我國各級政府部門調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)、保證其長期健康有序的發(fā)展提供政策依據(jù)。 本文主要工作為：對可能影響地產(chǎn)指數(shù)的35個宏觀經(jīng)濟指標首先利用多重共線性(基于方差膨脹因子法)進行了第一次篩選,刪除了21個存在多重共線性的宏觀經(jīng)濟指標,得到了不具有多重共線性的14個宏觀經(jīng)濟指標,其次,對于不具有多重共線性的14個宏觀經(jīng)濟指標利用向前選擇變量法進行篩選,即對宏觀經(jīng)濟指標進行第二次篩選,得到了能夠顯著地影響地產(chǎn)指數(shù)的5個宏觀經(jīng)濟指標,即黃金儲備、銀行間隔夜同業(yè)拆借利率、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長率、工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值增長率、金融機構(gòu)人民幣貸款基準利率。在得到顯著影響地產(chǎn)指數(shù)的宏觀經(jīng)濟指標體系之后,對地產(chǎn)指數(shù)與5個宏觀經(jīng)濟指標進行平穩(wěn)性檢驗、Johansen協(xié)整檢驗,檢驗結(jié)果表明地產(chǎn)指數(shù)與5個宏觀經(jīng)濟指標之間存在協(xié)整關系,在此基礎上,得到了反映宏觀經(jīng)濟指標體系對地產(chǎn)指數(shù)長短期影響的一般回歸模型與EC模型。 本文的創(chuàng)新點如下：首先,在構(gòu)建模型之前對眾多的宏觀經(jīng)濟指標進行了科學的篩選,保證了所選宏觀經(jīng)濟指標之間不具有多重共線性并對地產(chǎn)指數(shù)影響顯著；其次,同時研究了宏觀經(jīng)濟指標對地產(chǎn)指數(shù)的長短期影響,反映出同一宏觀經(jīng)濟指標長短期不同的影響；最后,之前較少從宏觀經(jīng)濟對地產(chǎn)指數(shù)的影響方面進行研究,本文在這個角度的研究方面做出了一點貢獻。
[Abstract]:There are different industry indexes in the stock market, each industry index reflects the operation of its industry, so the real estate index in China can reflect the development of the real estate market in China. The state of macroeconomic operation has an important impact on the stock market. The situation of macroeconomic operation can be reflected by macroeconomic indicators. It is of great significance to study the impact of macroeconomic indicators on real estate index in China. First of all, we can reveal the relationship between the macroeconomic indicators and the real estate index in China. It can provide policy basis for the development of stock market of real estate industry. Finally, it can regulate the real estate industry for all levels of government departments. To ensure its long-term healthy and orderly development to provide policy basis. The main work of this paper is as follows: firstly, 35 macroeconomic indicators which may affect the real estate index are screened for the first time by using multiplex collinearity (based on variance expansion factor method). Twenty-one macroeconomic indicators with multiple collinearity were deleted, and 14 macroeconomic indicators that did not have multiple co-linearity were obtained, followed by. For 14 macroeconomic indicators that do not have multiple collinearity, the method of forward selection variables is used to screen them, that is to say, the second selection of macroeconomic indicators is carried out. Five macroeconomic indicators, namely gold reserve, interbank interest rate, GDP growth rate, and industrial gross output growth rate, which can significantly affect the real estate index, are obtained. The benchmark interest rate of RMB loan in financial institutions. After obtaining the macroeconomic index system which has a significant impact on real estate index, this paper tests the stability of real estate index and five macroeconomic indicators. The results of Johansen cointegration test show that there is a cointegration relationship between real estate index and five macroeconomic indicators. The general regression model and EC model are obtained, which reflect the impact of macroeconomic index system on the real estate index in the long and short term. The innovations of this paper are as follows: first of all, scientific screening of many macroeconomic indicators is carried out before constructing the model. It ensures that there is no multiple collinearity between the selected macroeconomic indicators and has a significant impact on the real estate index; Secondly, it also studies the long-term and short-term impact of macroeconomic indicators on real estate index, reflecting the same macroeconomic indicators in the long and short term. Finally, there is little research on the impact of macroeconomic on the real estate index before, this paper makes a little contribution to the research of this angle.
【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.51;F224

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